Flash Flood Watch 10, NWS Des Moines, IA

Adair County, IA, Audubon County, IA, Black Hawk County, IA, Boone County, IA, Bremer County, IA, Butler County, IA, Calhoun County, IA, Carroll County, IA, Cass County, IA, Cerro Gordo County, IA, Crawford County, IA, Dallas County, IA, Emmet County, IA, Franklin County, IA, Greene County, IA, Grundy County, IA, Guthrie County, IA, Hamilton County, IA, Hancock County, IA, Hardin County, IA, Humboldt County, IA, Jasper County, IA, Kossuth County, IA, Madison County, IA, Mahaska County, IA, Marion County, IA, Marshall County, IA, Palo Alto County, IA, Pocahontas County, IA, Polk County, IA, Poweshiek County, IA, Sac County, IA, Story County, IA, Tama County, IA, Warren County, IA, Webster County, IA, Winnebago County, IA, Worth County, IA, Wright County, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1146 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT /...
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT IS TO THE SOUTH OF
MUCH OF THE CWA.  THIS SHOULD KEEP THE CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN IA WITH THE SEVERE LIKELY TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF IA OR
JUST GET INTO THE SRN COUNTIES.  WILL DROP THE FFA AS THE NORTHERN
ZONES ARE NOT LIKELY TO GET MUCH AND THE SOUTH NEEDS 2.5 TO 3 INCHES
TO REACH 3 HOUR FFG VALUES.  TEMPS TONIGHT CLOSE TO MOS VALUES WITH
DROPS BEING LIMITED BY DEW POINT INCREASING OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY...WITH THETA-E
ADVECTION IN THE MID LEVELS. WEAK ENERGY CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA ALOFT...WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY. MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT AND
BECOMES ORIENTED INTO THE CWA...WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. STRONG
SHORTWAVE TO APPROACH THE CWA INTO TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
CONTINUE SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
NORTHERN/EASTERN IOWA TUESDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE HAVE POPS CONFINED TO
THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CWA. OTHERWISE THAT WAVE PUSHES EAST INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE US. THIS SHOULD KEEP ANY STORMS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA.
THEREFORE HAVE DRY CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION DROPPING AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
STATE. THE RIDGE THEN AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE WESTERN/CENTRAL US INTO
THE WEEKEND SETTING UP A COOLER NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.
NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS WEAK IMPULSES DROP THROUGH THE
STATE. FOR NOW KEPT FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY DRY. STRONGER PUSH OF
WAA BACK INTO THE STATE SUNDAY...MAY BRING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE SO
HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK QUITE WARM THROUGH THURSDAY...PRIOR TO THE
COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE STATE. THEREFORE ANTICIPATE TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH TEMPS BACK INTO
THE 70S AND 80S FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...24/06Z
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PD. ISOLD TO SCT TSRA IS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT MAINLY THE KDSM TERMINAL OVERNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY
ALSO KALO...KFOD AND KOTM. ADDITIONAL TSRA IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT AFFECTING MAINLY THE KFOD...KALO AND KMCW
TERMINALS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...ZOGG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1133 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013

IAZ044>050-057>062-070>075-081>085-250445-
CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-
DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-
MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-
1133 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. SOME
MAY ALSO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS. AN ISOLATED
SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SOME STORMS
MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREATS.

THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AROUND FRIDAY. IT
IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE TIMING AND SEVERE POTENTIAL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-086-092>097-250445-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-
DECATUR-WAYNE-APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
1133 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT
TOWARD SUNRISE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT
WITH THESE STORMS. SOME MAY ALSO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF
GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SOME STORMS
MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREATS.

THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AROUND FRIDAY. IT
IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE TIMING AND SEVERE POTENTIAL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1206 AM CDT MON JUN 24 2013

IAZ061-074-075-240600-
JASPER-MAHASKA-MARION-
1206 AM CDT MON JUN 24 2013

...RAPIDLY DEVELOPING AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL
MARION COUNTY MOVING NORTHEAST...

AT 1201 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM OVER CENTRAL MARION COUNTY...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...WINDS GREATER THAN 30 MPH...OCCASIONAL
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF MODERATE DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  LAKE RED ROCK...      MONROE...             PELLA AIRPORT...
  PELLA...              REASNOR...            SULLY...
  LYNNVILLE...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. SEEK
SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

KOTENBERG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1215 AM CDT MON JUN 24 2013

IAZ057-058-070-071-240615-
ADAIR-AUDUBON-CASS-GUTHRIE-
1215 AM CDT MON JUN 24 2013

...RAPIDLY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST CASS AND
SOUTHEAST AUDUBON COUNTIES...

AT 1210 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM OVER NORTHEASTERN CASS COUNTY...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...WINDS GREATER THAN 30 MPH...OCCASIONAL
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF MODERATE DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  EXIRA...              ADAIR...              CASEY...
  MENLO...              STUART...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. SEEK
SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

KOTENBERG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1255 AM CDT MON JUN 24 2013

IAZ048>050-061-240700-
JASPER-MARSHALL-STORY-TAMA-
1255 AM CDT MON JUN 24 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OVER NORTHWEST JASPER
COUNTY...

AT 1247 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 20 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MARSHALLTOWN...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. A TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED PEA SIZE HAIL WITH
THIS STORM.

ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...WINDS GREATER THAN 30 MPH...OCCASIONAL
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MELBOURNE...          LAUREL...             HAVERHILL...
  MARSHALLTOWN...       GILMAN...             FERGUSON...
  LE GRAND...           MONTOUR...            TOLEDO...
  TAMA...               GARWIN...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. SEEK
SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

KOTENBERG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
121 AM CDT MON JUN 24 2013

IAZ057-058-070-071-240715-
ADAIR-AUDUBON-CASS-GUTHRIE-
121 AM CDT MON JUN 24 2013

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 120 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF ATLANTIC. THE STORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST...BUT
REDEVELOPMENT WILL KEEP THE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH 2 OR 3 AM.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...POOR
VISIBILITY AND PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  CASEY...              EXIRA...              BRAYTON...

STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES AND IF YOU
ENCOUNTER WATER ON THE ROAD...DO NOT DRIVE INTO IT. KEEP UP TO DATE
ON THE WEATHER IN CASE A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS NEEDED.

JUNGBLUTH

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