Severe Thunderstorm Warning 102, NWS Des Moines, IA

833 
WWUS53 KDMX 292058
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
358 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

IAC013-075-292107-
/O.CAN.KDMX.SV.W.0102.000000T0000Z-130529T2130Z/
GRUNDY IA-BLACK HAWK IA-
358 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WESTERN BLACK HAWK AND GRUNDY
COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.

HOWEVER PORTIONS OF GRUNDY COUNTY REMAIN IN ANOTHER SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM WARNING UNTIL 445 PM DUE TO ANOTHER APPROACHING LINE OF 
STORMS.

IN ADDITION...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 
1000 PM.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN DES MOINES.

LAT...LON 4230 9224 4229 9254 4230 9277 4228 9278
      4228 9287 4245 9300 4256 9281 4255 9256
      4264 9255 4264 9248
TIME...MOT...LOC 2057Z 244DEG 22KT 4246 9260

$$

SMALL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1252 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

MAIN CONCERN FOR FORECAST TODAY ONCE AGAIN BECOMES PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL PULL EAST OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...MODELS INDICATE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT NEAR EASTERN KS
WITH NOSE OF LLJ BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH
FORCING. DO NOT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH
THERE ARE SOME HINTS ON RADAR THAT SOME DEVELOPMENT MAY BE BEGINNING
IN THE AREA...AND WILL INCLUDE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE
MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST LIFTING QUICKLY NORTH
THROUGH THE MORNING. IF PRECIPITATION OCCURS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE
NORTH INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTH. MAIN CONCERN HOWEVER IS WITH AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION. EXPECT DEVELOPMENT IN EASTERN NEBRASKA/WESTERN IOWA IN
THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON WITH FRONT/DRY LINE IN CENTRAL KANSAS
EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST. CAPE VALUES ARE ONCE AGAIN HIGH ACROSS THE
WEST...2000-3000 J/KG WITH GOOD SHEAR AS WELL. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS.

FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS IN THE
NORTH/DEW POINTS DO NOT ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AND WILL NOT
ISSUE AND ADVISORY ATTM...THOUGH LOCALIZED AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN TUESDAY BEHIND BOUNDARY...THOUGH ONCE AGAIN COULD SEE
HIGHER TEMPS IF SKIES CLEAR ACROSS THE CWA.

.LONG TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

WITH MCS AGAIN FORCING OUTFLOW SOUTH OF REGION LAST NIGHT...NOT MUCH
CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY PORTION OF FORECAST
PERIOD OTHER THAN APPROACH OF MAIN SHORTWAVE TO AFFECT IOWA FROM
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.  LOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO TONIGHT
WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST AS STRONGER WESTERLIES GET CLOSER TO
ROCKIES BY 12Z WED. THIS WILL FINALLY ALLOW FOR THE ENTIRE SYSTEM TO
MAKE A TRANSITION EAST OF AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE WILL BE
PLENTY TO DEAL WITH BEFORE ITS ALL OVER.  AS THE FIRST OF TWO UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVES ARRIVE TONIGHT...STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS ALOFT
WILL SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED STORMS JUST TO THE WEST OF REGION IN
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS EARLY IN THE PERIOD MOVING EAST
OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME
SEVERE WEATHER IS A POSSIBILITY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING WITH THE GREATER THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN INITIALLY WEST. AS A
CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT...THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN
MOVES WITH IT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUES INTO
THURSDAY. WITH THE WIND FIELDS RATHER STRONG OVERNIGHT...SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT OR EARLY MORNING SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE
SOUTH ENHANCED BY THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW. THE FIRST CLUSTER OF
STORMS SHOULD MOVE NORTHEAST WITH A BRIEF BREAK BEFORE ANOTHER
ROUND OF STORMS QUICKLY FORMS AS THE SECOND SHORT WAVE APPROACHES
THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. THE STRONGER H500 SHORT WAVE WILL
CONTINUE STORMS FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY BRINGING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE AREA. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE TEMPERED DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS
THE REGION DUE TO THE OVERCAST AND RAINFALL. SOME QUESTIONS AS TO
THE STRENGTH OF SEVERE WEATHER ON THURSDAY. THOUGH THE WIND FIELDS
SUPPORT BETTER CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER...THE ONGOING CONVECTION
AND CLOUDS MAY SUPPRESS THE OVERALL INSTABILITY AND FAVOR
AGAIN...HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA. WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF
EXTENDED RAINS...POTENTIAL FOR AT TWO PERIODS OF 1-2 INCH RAINS A
REAL POSSIBILITY FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS
COULD LEAD TO MORE FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER RISES THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. AT THIS TIME THERE IS LITTLE CONSENSUS IN THE
PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS...A
PERSISTENT CHALLENGE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS FOR EACH EVENT.
LOOKING AT ALL THE DATA...THE PREFERRED AREAS APPEAR TO BE THE
SOUTHEAST ONCE AGAIN FROM ABOUT A LINE FROM NEAR WATERLOO
SOUTHWEST TO AUDUBON. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT LOOK OVER ONE MORE
SET OF MODEL RUNS TO DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF ANY HEADLINES FOR
THIS UPCOMING EVENT. AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES TO THE EAST...
TEMPERATURES COOL OFF OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A GRADUAL WARMUP AGAIN
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THAT OCCURS...WILL BE LOOKING AT ADDITIONAL
WARM AIR ADVECTION RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...29/18Z
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN HALF OF IOWA
CURRENTLY ONGOING...WITH THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR RANGE WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS...THEREFORE A REDUCTION IN VSBYS TO LIFR/IFR IS
EXPECTED IF THE HEAVIEST PORTION OF A THUNDERSTORM TRAVELS OVER
ONE OF THE TERMINAL SITES. TIMING OF SPECIFIC THUNDERSTORMS AT THE
TERMINAL SITES IS UNCERTAIN SO JUST WENT WITH THE VCTS FOR THE
PERIOD BEYOND THE CRITICAL TAF PERIOD. ALSO SOUTHERLY WINDS
EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM APPROACHING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION. THE MAIN FOCUS OF ANY
REPEATED RAINFALL LOOKS ONCE AGAIN TO FAVOR THE SOUTHEAST THIRD TO
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH AT LEAST TWO ROUNDS OF 1-2 INCH
RAINFALL EXPECTED FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY...THERE
MAY AGAIN BE A RISK OF MORE FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL PRESSURE ON RIVER LEVELS OVER
THE NEXT 3 TO 5 DAYS. LOOK TO LATER STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE WATCHES
CONCERNING THIS UPCOMING RAINFALL EVENT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR APPANOOSE-BLACK HAWK-BREMER-BUTLER-CLARKE-DAVIS-
DECATUR-GRUNDY-JASPER-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-MARSHALL-
MONROE-POLK-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-TAMA-UNION-WAPELLO-WARREN-WAYNE.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-
AUDUBON-BOONE-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CASS-CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-
EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-
KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-SAC-STORY-TAYLOR-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-
WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...BEERENDS
HYDROLOGY...REV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
501 AM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-081>086-
092>097-301015-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-
BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-
POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-
CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-APPANOOSE-
DAVIS-
501 AM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ALL OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA
TODAY. FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT PERIODS OF MORE WIDESPREAD
AND STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. A FEW STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS THE MAIN
THREAT. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE. THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS MAY LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING OR AREAL FLOODING...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS THAT HAVE
ALREADY SEEN FLOODING THIS WEEK.

NUMEROUS RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. PLEASE REFER TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. THE THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL...POSSIBLY LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING OR AREAL
FLOODING...WILL REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY. SEVERE WEATHER WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

NUMEROUS RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. PLEASE REFER TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AT TIMES TODAY THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. REPORTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND ANY FLOODING WOULD ALSO BE
APPRECIATED.

REV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
248 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0241 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 ENE URBANDALE         41.64N 93.73W
05/29/2013  M63 MPH          POLK               IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MEASURED WIND FOR 5 MINUTES ENDING AT 241 PM AT 86TH AND
            MEREDITH IN URBANDALE.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
313 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0312 PM     TSTM WND GST     BONDURANT               41.69N 93.46W
05/29/2013  E60 MPH          POLK               IA   PUBLIC

&&

SKOW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
318 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0257 PM     HAIL             ANKENY                  41.72N 93.61W
05/29/2013  E0.75 INCH       POLK               IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SKOW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
326 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0306 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 3 W DUMONT              42.75N 93.03W
05/29/2013                   FRANKLIN           IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN AND A PORCH REPORTED BLOWN OFF. DAMAGE DOES
            NOT APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY PARTICULAR STORM.

&&

SKOW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
326 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

IAZ060-292230-
POLK-
326 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 320 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A A
LINE OF TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL 7 MILES WEST OF
DES MOINES. THE LINE OF STORMS IS MOVING NORTH AT 45 MPH.

HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN STREETS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS STORM. PONDING OF WATER ON INTERSTATE 35 IN THE
CONSTRUCTION AREA NEAR MILLS CIVIC PARKWAY WAS REPORTED.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  URBANDALE...          SAYLORVILLE...        JOHNSTON...
  GRIMES...             CLIVE...

SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

BEERENDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
327 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0317 PM     HAIL             2 NW MAXWELL            41.91N 93.43W
05/29/2013  E0.88 INCH       STORY              IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WATER ALSO OVER 640TH ST.

&&

SKOW