River Flood Warning 40, NWS Des Moines, IA

622 
WGUS83 KDMX 291007
FLSDMX

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
507 AM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR ALL OR PORTIONS OF THE 
FOLLOWING RIVERS IN IOWA...CEDAR CREEK...

  AFFECTING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN IOWA...MAHASKA...MARION
  
RIVER FORECASTS INCLUDE OBSERVED PRECIPITATION...AS WELL AS EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ENCOUNTER A FLOODED AREA...TURN AROUND AND FIND AN ALTERNATE 
ROUTE. TURN AROUND...DO NOT DROWN.

MORE INFORMATION IS AT  WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES .

&&

IAC123-125-291037-
/O.CAN.KDMX.FL.W.0040.000000T0000Z-130530T1434Z/
/BSSI4.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
507 AM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

...FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE CEDAR CREEK NEAR BUSSEY...OR FROM THE NORTH CEDAR CREEK...TO 
  THE DES MOINES RIVER.
* AT  4:15 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 22.2 FEET...OR 2.8 FEET BELOW 
  FLOOD STAGE.
* FORECAST...CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE WITH A STAGE OF 22.8 FEET...OR 
  2.2 FEET BELOW FLOOD STAGE...THIS AFTERNOON. 

&&
 
LAT...LON 4116 9300 4116 9287 4124 9280 4129 9285 4127 9291

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
647 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT /...
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS LARGELY PREDICATED ON CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION...WHICH IS UNFORTUNATELY AMBIGUOUS AND OF SOMEWHAT LOW
CONFIDENCE. CURRENTLY STORMS ARE DEVELOPING RAPIDLY ALONG A BOUNDARY
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WHERE SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
ARE LIKELY. FURTHER NORTH INSTABILITY HAS BEEN INCREASING THIS
AFTERNOON...DESPITE BEING HAMPERED BY PERSISTENT CLOUDS...BUT THE
FLOW IS MORE NEBULOUS WITH A LACK OF FORCING MECHANISM. EXPECT THAT
STORMS WILL BE LARGELY CONFINED TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THIS
EVENING...BUT AFTERWARD AS SEVERAL SUBTLE MID-LEVEL FEATURES
UPSTREAM OVER THE HIGH PLAINS APPROACH...SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW A
TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT AS TO WHETHER ADDITIONAL STORMS
WILL DEVELOP OR NOT. IT DOES APPEAR PROBABLE THAT LARGE SCALE
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH ONE OR MORE OF THESE FEATURES COULD AFFECT
THE REMAINDER OF OUR CWA...AND WITH STEERING FLOW TURNING TO MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY EXPECT THAT ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA/NORTHERN
MISSOURI COULD ADVECT NORTHWARD AS WELL. ON THE OTHER HAND...IF THE
STORMS IN THE SOUTH THIS EVENING PROPAGATE OR SEND AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD THEN IT COULD CHOKE THINGS OFF IN THAT DIRECTION
AND STABILIZE THE REGION...MITIGATING ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN SUCH A SCENARIO HAVE
OPTED FOR BROAD SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT...SLOWLY
SPREADING NORTHWARD...BUT ANTICIPATE THAT THESE WILL NEED TO BE
UPDATED BASED ON SHORT TERM OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES. OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...WHICH WILL ALSO
EFFECT CLOUD COVER AND OTHER FORECAST PARAMETERS...THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...HAVE
NOT INCLUDED IT IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME AS CONFIDENCE IN DENSE
FOG IS LOW. IF STORMS REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING AND
SKIES MANAGE TO LARGELY CLEAR OVERNIGHT THEN IT COULD BECOME MORE OF
A CONCERN.

.LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH A POTENTIAL BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TOWARD THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CONCERNS CONTINUE TO CENTER AROUND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE STATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH CONTINUED MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO THE
STATE. STORM MOTIONS BECOME SIMILAR ARE SLOWER WITH MUCH OF THE
STATE IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE WARM
FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS THE STATE TODAY LIFTS NORTHWARD. ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY...WITH HEAVY RAIN STILL A
THREAT DUE TO SLOW STORM MOTIONS...POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING STORMS
AND DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS. GREATEST THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL FLASH
FLOODING AND HEAVY RAINFALL COMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW BEGINS TO LIFT OUT OF THE ROCKIES
AND INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS. STORM MOTION BECOMES MORE
PARALLEL TO THE FRONT INCREASING THE THREAT FOR TRAINING
STORMS...WITH CONTINUED SLOW STORM MOTIONS. OVERALL PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS FORECAST FOR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD 1
TO 3 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE BENEATH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY ALSO LOOK LIKE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER EACH
DAY...WITH STRONGER ENERGY LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OFF TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST. DECENT
SHEAR WITH INSTABILITY ANTICIPATED.

STORM SYSTEM FINALLY BEGINS TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY...WITH SOME LINGERING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER OVERALL THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER BEGINS
TO DECREASE WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN CHANCES POSSIBLE. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MODELS THEN
DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE EC
BRINGING ANOTHER UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS COULD
BRING SOME CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. HOWEVER THE
GFS IS WEAKER WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...THUS KEEPING ANY PRECIP CHANCES FURTHER NORTH OF THE CWA.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES LOOKING WARMER THROUGH THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...AND THEN COOLER AGAIN TOWARD THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...29/00Z
 ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

ONGOING CONVECTION LOOKS TO MAINLY AFFECT OTM AND POSSIBLY DSM
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT OTM
OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS AND VIS AND CIGS WILL VARY FROM MVFR TO
IFR. FURTHER NORTH...MAY SEE FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND BRING MVFR
VIS TO FOD/ALO/MCW INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. VERY STRONG SOUTH WINDS
WILL DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
TIMING OF ADDITION CONVECTION LOOKS MORE LIKELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY AND CUT BACK ON MENTION UNTIL THE LAST 6
HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PARTS OF OUR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. GIVEN THAT THE
ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO BE FAVORABLE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
FROM THESE STORMS...AND THAT SOILS ARE ALREADY SATURATED WITH
RIVER AND AREAL FLOODING ONGOING...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH FOR
ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING ACROSS MOST OF THIS AREA. THEREFORE HAVE
ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH RUNNING THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR ADAMS-APPANOOSE-
CLARKE-DAVIS-DECATUR-JASPER-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-MONROE-
POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-TAYLOR-UNION-WAPELLO-WARREN-WAYNE.

&&

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...PODRAZIK
HYDROLOGY...LEE/ZOGG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
413 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>060-070-071-292115-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-
BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-CASS-ADAIR-
413 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
AREA LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A FEW STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE AND WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
AND FLOODING.

NUMEROUS RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. PLEASE REFER TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. THE THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL...POSSIBLY LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING OR AREAL
FLOODING...WILL REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY. SEVERE WEATHER WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

NUMEROUS RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. PLEASE REFER TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AT TIMES THROUGH THIS WEEK.

IAZ061-062-072>075-081>086-092>097-292115-
JASPER-POWESHIEK-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-CLARKE-
LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
413 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST INTO TONIGHT.
SOME STORMS WILL BE SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT
BUT DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THE STORMS WILL
ALSO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO ADDITIONAL FLASH
FLOODING.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND NUMEROUS RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT. PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. THE THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL...POSSIBLY LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING OR AREAL
FLOODING...WILL REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY. SEVERE WEATHER WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

NUMEROUS RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. PLEASE REFER TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT...AND AGAIN AT TIMES
THROUGH THIS WEEK.

MJB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
816 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0813 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MELROSE                 40.98N 93.05W
05/28/2013                   MONROE             IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MONROE COUNTY LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTS THAT DOWNTOWN
            MELROSE AND MOST OF THE STREETS IN TOWN ARE UNDERWATER.
            WATER IS FLOWING INTO SOME BUILDINGS INCLUDING THE
            COMMUNITY CENTER...AND SEVERAL TRAILER HOMES ARE
            SURROUNDED BY WATER.

&&

LEE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
817 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0813 PM     FLASH FLOOD      LOVILIA                 41.14N 92.91W
05/28/2013                   MONROE             IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MONROE COUNTY LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTS THAT SEVERAL
            STREETS IN AND AROUND LOVILIA REMAIN CLOSED DUE TO WATER
            OVER THE ROADS.

&&

LEE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
842 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0835 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 SSW CENTERVILLE       40.68N 92.90W
05/28/2013  M64 MPH          APPANOOSE          IA   AWOS

            CENTERVILLE AIRPORT AWOS

&&

SMALL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
854 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 NE OTTUMWA            41.03N 92.41W
05/28/2013                   WAPELLO            IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED FLASH FLOODING ALONG 140TH AVE
            ON THE NORTH SIDE OF OTTUMWA. WATER WAS MOVING DOWN THE
            ROAD AND WAS APPROXIMATED TO BE 1 TO 2 FEET DEEP

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
900 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0838 PM     HAIL             SE EXLINE               40.65N 92.84W
05/28/2013  E0.75 INCH       APPANOOSE          IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            40-50 MPH WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. NO APPARENT WIND
            DAMAGE.

&&

SMALL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
909 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0847 PM     HAIL             WSW CINCINNATI          40.63N 92.92W
05/28/2013  E0.88 INCH       APPANOOSE          IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED PEA TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL

&&