River Flood Warning 27, NWS Des Moines, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
341 AM CDT MON MAY 27 2013

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY /...
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT MON MAY 27 2013

DECENT S/WV MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING WITH A WELL
DEVELOPED BOW ECHO ENTERING THE WESTERN CWA PRESENTLY.  CONCERNS FOR
TODAY ARE WITH THE BOW ECHO AND WIND AS FAR AS SEVERE WEATHER IS
CONCERNED...AND WITH FLOODING MOST OF THE CWA.  BOW ECHO IS
PRODUCING CONSISTENT 40 TO 55 MPH WINDS AND EXPECT TO SEE SOME
SPOTTY SEVERE WINDS WITH IT.  AREAS OF TSRA DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE
LINE MAY LIMIT THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THE HIGH WINDS...BUT LEAD TO
FURTHER FLOODING PROBLEMS.  BULK OF ACTIVITY WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA
BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS REMAINING.  WARM FRONT
WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME PROGRESSING NWD WITH REINFORCEMENT OF COOL
POOL BY THE MCS'S.  FOR THAT REASON...WENT BELOW MOS FORECASTS HIGHS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NERN HALF OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT MON MAY 27 2013

PERSISTENT WET PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD...WITH CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER NOW ADDED TO THE
MIX...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE WEEK AND FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS IN STORE FOR CENTRAL IOWA
AGAIN OVERNIGHT. STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH...AND
ANTICIPATE IT TO BE ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA BY TONIGHT...WHICH MAY BE
THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT...AS WELL AS A SHORTWAVE
PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA. ALONG WITH SHORTWAVE...ANOTHER
BAND OF THETA-E ADVECTION AND GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE
FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA THROUGH 12Z. ANTICIPATE THIS TO BE
THE BEST AREA FOR HEAVY RAIN...HOWEVER ANY RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH
COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FLOODING CONCERNS GIVEN ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS. WILL ALLOW FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH
12Z...AND MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER SOUTH.

AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS WESTERN KS/NE LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
REMAIN ACROSS IOWA...THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM AND WILL
ALSO KEEP GOOD MOISTURE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK BOUNDARY IS
SET TO PUSH EASTWARD FROM THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY FOR
TUESDAY...AND THIS MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE
STATE WITH AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT LIKELY. HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN A
BIT FOR TUESDAY MORNING...WITH ONLY LINGERING PRECIPITATION...BUT
WITH POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT HAVE BROUGHT POPS BACK UP
AGAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER COVERAGE MAY BE MORE LIMITED.
SHEAR INCREASES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL AS CAPE VALUES AND COULD
SEE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND MAY SEE LINGERING POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT DO NOT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST AS WELL BEHIND FRONT.

LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW THEN DOMINATES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS
LOW TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS. GFS CONTINUES TO DIG LOW SOUTH
WHILE ECMWF DOES NOT. ANTICIPATE PRECIPITATION ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STRETCHED ACROSS IOWA FOR THURSDAY...AND AGAIN
DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY BEHIND BOUNDARY. PLACEMENT AND DEVELOPMENT OF
LOW HOWEVER WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN SEVERE CHANCES...BOTH MODELS
DRAG A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH ACROSS IOWA...AND SEVERE CHANCES
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED WITH FUTURE UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...27/06Z
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013

THUNDERSTORMS AND LOW STRATUS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD THOUGH PERIODS OF VFR WILL REACH KDSM AND KOTM AT TIMES.
FARTHER NORTH...IFR TO MVFR STRATUS SHOULD MAINTAIN FOR MUCH OF
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND IS LIKELY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHEAST BUT WILL BE
VARIABLE DIRECTION NEAR THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT MON MAY 27 2013

PWAT VALUES REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE STATE...NEAR 1.5 WHICH IS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE MAY. IN ADDITION GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT
REMAINS WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW. WITH ANTICIPATED CONVECTION
ABLE TO PRODUCE HIGH RAINFALL RATES...AND GIVEN SEVERAL NIGHTS OF
VERY HIGH PRECIPITATION TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MORE
CONVECTION EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WILL KEEP FLASH FLOOD WATCH
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. AREAS OUTSIDE THE WATCH WILL ALSO BE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING IF HEAVY RAINS AGAIN TRACK ACROSS
THE AREA. IN ADDITION...RIVERS ARE BEGINNING TO RESPOND TO HEAVY
RAINFALL AND WILL SEE CONTINUED RISES...WITH MORE RIVER FLOOD
WARNINGS POSSIBLE.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR BLACK HAWK-BOONE-
BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-DAVIS-EMMET-
FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-JASPER-
KOSSUTH-MAHASKA-MARION-MARSHALL-MONROE-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-POLK-
POWESHIEK-SAC-STORY-TAMA-WAPELLO-WARREN-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-
WRIGHT.

&&

SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...DONAVON
HYDROLOGY...AWB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
503 AM CDT MON MAY 27 2013

IAZ057>059-070>072-081>084-092>096-281100-
AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-ADAMS-UNION-CLARKE-LUCAS-
TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-APPANOOSE-
503 AM CDT MON MAY 27 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND A FEW CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
QUARTER SIZED HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...POSSIBLY LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING OR AREAL
FLOODING WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS THE MAIN THREAT...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL. SEVERE WEATHER MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED PERIODICALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-060>062-073>075-085-086-
097-281100-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-
BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-POLK-JASPER-POWESHIEK-WARREN-MARION-
MAHASKA-MONROE-WAPELLO-DAVIS-
503 AM CDT MON MAY 27 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND A FEW CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
QUARTER SIZED HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY. PLEASE REFER TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...POSSIBLY LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING OR AREAL
FLOODING WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS THE MAIN THREAT...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL. SEVERE WEATHER MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED PERIODICALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AWB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
432 AM CDT MON MAY 27 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 AM     FLASH FLOOD      BAYARD                  41.85N 94.56W
05/27/2013                   GUTHRIE            IA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HIGHWAY 25 RAILROAD UNDERPASS FLOODED. HIGHWAY HAS BEEN
            CLOSED.

0422 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 SSW BAGLEY            41.78N 94.46W
05/27/2013                   GUTHRIE            IA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER OVER SPILLWAY AND ROAD IN SPRINGBROOK STATE PARK.
            DNR IS EVACUATING THE PARK.

0430 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 S BAGLEY              41.82N 94.43W
05/27/2013                   GUTHRIE            IA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER OVER QUAIL ROAD.

&&

SKOW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
833 AM CDT MON MAY 27 2013

IAZ025>027-035>038-046>048-058>060-271600-
WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-GREENE-
BOONE-STORY-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLARION...HAMPTON...ALLISON...
FORT DODGE...WEBSTER CITY...ELDORA...GRUNDY CENTER...JEFFERSON...
BOONE...AMES...GUTHRIE CENTER...ADEL...DES MOINES
833 AM CDT MON MAY 27 2013

...STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS...

STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY TO 45
MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL TO NORTH CENTRAL IOWA THROUGH
11 AM CDT BEFORE DIMINISHING. DUE TO THE VERY SATURATED
GROUND...MANY TREES MAY BECOME EASILY UPROOTED DUE TO THE STRONG
GUSTS.

KLP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
855 AM CDT MON MAY 27 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 2 W HUBBARD             42.31N 93.34W
05/27/2013                   HARDIN             IA   PUBLIC

            LARGE COTTONWOOD TREE UPROOTED. GROUND HIGHLY SATURATED
            BEFORE STRONG WINDS ARRVIED

0805 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 5 N BUCKEYE             42.49N 93.38W
05/27/2013                   HARDIN             IA   PUBLIC

            AN OLD SHED WAS BLOWN OVER BY NON-THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
924 AM CDT MON MAY 27 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0923 AM     FLOOD            BAGLEY                  41.85N 94.43W
05/27/2013                   GUTHRIE            IA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FLOOD WATERS ARE MOVING OVER HIGHWAY 141 FROM WATER
            FLOWING OFF THE FIELDS.

&&

JJOHNSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
944 AM CDT MON MAY 27 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0937 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 W NEW HARTFORD        42.57N 92.64W
05/27/2013                   BUTLER             IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TERRACE AVENUE, A GRAVEL ROAD, IS FAILING AND WATER
            STARTING TO FLOW INTO NEW HARTFORD

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1001 AM CDT MON MAY 27 2013

IAZ036>038-047>049-059>061-271715-
HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WEBSTER CITY...ELDORA...GRUNDY CENTER...
BOONE...AMES...MARSHALLTOWN...ADEL...DES MOINES...NEWTON
1001 AM CDT MON MAY 27 2013

...STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS...

STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY TO 55 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL IOWA THROUGH 11 AM CDT
BEFORE DIMINISHING. THE HIGH WINDS ARE MOST LIKELY FROM MARSHALL
COUNTY SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN POLK COUNTY. DUE TO THE VERY
SATURATED GROUND...MANY TREES MAY BECOME EASILY UPROOTED DUE TO
THE STRONG GUSTS.