Severe Thunderstorm Warning 77, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
333 PM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013

.SHORT TERM...
INTERESTING AFTERNOON AND EVENING DEVELOPING ACROSS MINNESOTA.  WEAK
SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...WITH A
WARM FRONT DRAPED FROM IT SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO JUST
NORTH OF THE TWIN CITIES.  MOST OF THE DULUTH CWA IS SITTING ON THE
COOL SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO LOW
70S...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.  CAPES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY HAVE
RISEN INTO THE 1500-2000J/KG  RANGE...WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES OVER
45KTS.  WITH THE FRONT SO CLOSE TO THE FORECAST AREA...AM CONCERNED
WITH ANY STORMS BEING ABLE TO TAP THAT VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS THIS
EVENING AND PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER WELL INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  NORTH OF THERE...MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS THE WAVE AND AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY GENERATING STORMS OVER NORTH DAKOTA SWEEPS SOUTHEAST TO
AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA.  SO...HAVE KEPT THE VERY HIGH POPS GOING
THIS EVENING...THEN DIMINISHING LATE AS THE WHOLE SYSTEM SWEEPS
EAST.  THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA.  MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 40S NW TO MID 50S SE.

WEDNESDAY TO BE COOL AND QUIET WITH A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO
THE AREA.  DEEP MIXING WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES MID 60S TO LOW
70S.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
PRIMARY SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURE THIS PERIOD IS THE LARGE MID LVL LOW
OVER MB/ONT BORDER AT BEGINNING OF PERIOD. THIS SYSTEM WILL DROP ESE
INTO SRN ONTARIO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK BEFORE EJECTING EAST
INTO QUEBEC FOR THE WEEKEND. OVERALL MID LVL FLOW IS NORTHWEST WITH
AN INITIAL COLD FROPA EXPECTED THURSDAY. WILL CARRY POPS LATE WED
EVE OVER NWRN MN ZONES...SPREADING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA
THURSDAY. SOME OF THE NWP SUGGESTS A SECONDARY AXIS OF 85/70H MSTR
TRANSPORT WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO NRN MN CWA FRIDAY. HAVE USED SLGT
CHC WORDING AND KEPT PRECIP TYPE RW VS TRW DUE TO LIMITED CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY. A MAINLY DRY WEEKEND IS EXPECTED AS A LARGE SFC HIGH
MOVES TOWARDS NRN PLAINS. COMPLICATING FACTOR IS PRESENCE OF
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ON WRN EDGE OF ONTARIO/QUEBEC MID LVL
CIRCULATION. ANY MIGRATORY SHORTWAVE MAY HAVE JUST ENOUGH INTENSITY
TO SPREAD A FEW RW ACROSS THE RN HALF OF THE CWA. SLGT CHC POP USED
TO COVER THIS FOR NOW UNTIL SUCH POINT WHEN MORE DEFINITION MAY BE
USED.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF ISSUANCE...

SFC LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS CWA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
AT TIMES. ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING HOW UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME DUE TO PRECEDING CLOUD COVER...THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT STORMS OVER BRD/DLH/HYR TERMINALS
BETWEEN 4PM TO 9PM LOCAL TIME. MAY REQUIRE AMENDMENTS ONCE A MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE PATTERN DEVELOPS. A PERIOD OF LOWER STRATUS
AND SOME BR IS EXPECTED BEHIND CONVECTION OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH
INCREASING SFC WINDS SHOULD LIMIT WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  55  69  49  69 /  80  10  10  40
INL  47  66  45  66 /  60  10  20  40
BRD  55  72  49  72 /  90   0  10  40
HYR  56  72  47  72 /  80  10   0  20
ASX  56  69  47  70 /  80  10   0  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM....CANNON
AVIATION...CANNON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
320 PM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-071130-
KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
NORTHERN ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE-
SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-NORTHERN CASS-SOUTHERN ITASCA-
SOUTHERN CASS-CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN AITKIN-
CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-ASHLAND-IRON-
BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
320 PM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION. SOME STORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
MOST LIKELY POTENTIAL OF ANY SEVERE STORMS IS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
NIMROD TO MOOSE LAKE TO PARK FALLS. THIS INCLUDES THE
BRAINERD...HINCKLEY...AND HAYWARD AREAS. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS...AND A POSSIBLE TORNADO ARE THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

LSZ121-140>148-071130-
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
320 PM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

CANNON

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DULUTH (ALL LOWER CASE)

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