Severe Thunderstorm Warning 75, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
333 PM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013

.SHORT TERM...
INTERESTING AFTERNOON AND EVENING DEVELOPING ACROSS MINNESOTA.  WEAK
SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...WITH A
WARM FRONT DRAPED FROM IT SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO JUST
NORTH OF THE TWIN CITIES.  MOST OF THE DULUTH CWA IS SITTING ON THE
COOL SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO LOW
70S...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.  CAPES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY HAVE
RISEN INTO THE 1500-2000J/KG  RANGE...WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES OVER
45KTS.  WITH THE FRONT SO CLOSE TO THE FORECAST AREA...AM CONCERNED
WITH ANY STORMS BEING ABLE TO TAP THAT VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS THIS
EVENING AND PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER WELL INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  NORTH OF THERE...MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS THE WAVE AND AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY GENERATING STORMS OVER NORTH DAKOTA SWEEPS SOUTHEAST TO
AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA.  SO...HAVE KEPT THE VERY HIGH POPS GOING
THIS EVENING...THEN DIMINISHING LATE AS THE WHOLE SYSTEM SWEEPS
EAST.  THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA.  MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 40S NW TO MID 50S SE.

WEDNESDAY TO BE COOL AND QUIET WITH A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO
THE AREA.  DEEP MIXING WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES MID 60S TO LOW
70S.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
PRIMARY SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURE THIS PERIOD IS THE LARGE MID LVL LOW
OVER MB/ONT BORDER AT BEGINNING OF PERIOD. THIS SYSTEM WILL DROP ESE
INTO SRN ONTARIO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK BEFORE EJECTING EAST
INTO QUEBEC FOR THE WEEKEND. OVERALL MID LVL FLOW IS NORTHWEST WITH
AN INITIAL COLD FROPA EXPECTED THURSDAY. WILL CARRY POPS LATE WED
EVE OVER NWRN MN ZONES...SPREADING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA
THURSDAY. SOME OF THE NWP SUGGESTS A SECONDARY AXIS OF 85/70H MSTR
TRANSPORT WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO NRN MN CWA FRIDAY. HAVE USED SLGT
CHC WORDING AND KEPT PRECIP TYPE RW VS TRW DUE TO LIMITED CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY. A MAINLY DRY WEEKEND IS EXPECTED AS A LARGE SFC HIGH
MOVES TOWARDS NRN PLAINS. COMPLICATING FACTOR IS PRESENCE OF
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ON WRN EDGE OF ONTARIO/QUEBEC MID LVL
CIRCULATION. ANY MIGRATORY SHORTWAVE MAY HAVE JUST ENOUGH INTENSITY
TO SPREAD A FEW RW ACROSS THE RN HALF OF THE CWA. SLGT CHC POP USED
TO COVER THIS FOR NOW UNTIL SUCH POINT WHEN MORE DEFINITION MAY BE
USED.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF ISSUANCE...

SFC LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS CWA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
AT TIMES. ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING HOW UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME DUE TO PRECEDING CLOUD COVER...THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT STORMS OVER BRD/DLH/HYR TERMINALS
BETWEEN 4PM TO 9PM LOCAL TIME. MAY REQUIRE AMENDMENTS ONCE A MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE PATTERN DEVELOPS. A PERIOD OF LOWER STRATUS
AND SOME BR IS EXPECTED BEHIND CONVECTION OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH
INCREASING SFC WINDS SHOULD LIMIT WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  55  69  49  69 /  80  10  10  40
INL  47  66  45  66 /  60  10  20  40
BRD  55  72  49  72 /  90   0  10  40
HYR  56  72  47  72 /  80  10   0  20
ASX  56  69  47  70 /  80  10   0  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM....CANNON
AVIATION...CANNON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
320 PM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-071130-
KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
NORTHERN ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE-
SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-NORTHERN CASS-SOUTHERN ITASCA-
SOUTHERN CASS-CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN AITKIN-
CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-ASHLAND-IRON-
BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
320 PM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION. SOME STORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
MOST LIKELY POTENTIAL OF ANY SEVERE STORMS IS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
NIMROD TO MOOSE LAKE TO PARK FALLS. THIS INCLUDES THE
BRAINERD...HINCKLEY...AND HAYWARD AREAS. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS...AND A POSSIBLE TORNADO ARE THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

LSZ121-140>148-071130-
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
320 PM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

CANNON

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DULUTH (ALL LOWER CASE)

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
456 PM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013

MNZ033>036-062245-
CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTH AITKIN-SOUTH CASS-
456 PM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013

...STRONG STORMS OVER BRAINERD LAKES REGION...

AT 451 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM AITKIN TO 11 MILES
NORTHWEST OF ESTERDY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO
30 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING.

* THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  LEADER BY 505 PM...
  ROSSBURG AND AITKIN BY 510 PM...
  CUYUNA BY 515 PM...
  TROMMALD AND NISSWA BY 520 PM...
  KIMBERLY AND CUYUNA COUNTRY STATE PARK BY 525 PM...
  IRONTON BY 530 PM...
  DEERWOOD BY 535 PM...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. SEEK
SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

LAT...LON 4667 9478 4669 9383 4665 9356 4640 9322
      4637 9475 4640 9479

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
519 PM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013

MNZ038-062245-
PINE-
519 PM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TOWARDS THE PINE CITY AND HINCKLEY
AREAS...

AT 519 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 19 MILES WEST OF HENRIETTE...MOVING EAST AT 30
MPH.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING UP TO PENNY SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS
UP TO 40 MPH...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  HENRIETTE...          BROOK PARK...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. SEEK
SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 4573 9315 4598 9315 4599 9314 4600 9307
      4608 9307 4607 9277 4572 9288 4572 9314

LE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
525 PM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013

MNZ033-034-062300-
CROW WING-SOUTH CASS-
525 PM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING TOWARD CROW WING STATE PARK...

AT 522 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES WEST OF PILLAGER...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO
30 MPH...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  PILLAGER BY 535 PM...
  SYLVAN BY 540 PM...
  CROW WING STATE PARK AND LENNOX BY 545 PM...
  BARROWS AND BAXTER BY 550 PM...
  SAINT MATHIAS AND BRAINERD BY 555 PM...
  SHEPHARD BY 600 PM...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. SEEK
SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 4635 9405 4615 9409 4614 9420 4617 9438
      4624 9440 4628 9435 4632 9442 4630 9455
      4635 9466 4635 9471 4639 9471