Severe Thunderstorm Warning 280, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
335 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2013

...Updated synopsis and short term discussion...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT THU OCT 10 2013

This mornings upper air analysis showed a deep 500 millibar trough/
low pressure system situated near Las Vegas. A 110 knot jet at 250
millibars extended around the south and southeast quadrant of the
upper low which is helping kick the low east and northeast toward
the central High Plains this afternoon.  Surface low pressure was
deepening across east central and northeast Colorado where 3 hour
pressure falls of 3-4 millibars were noted by early afternoon. The
increasing pressure gradient across southwest Kansas has helped
increase southerly winds to near advisory levels by early afternoon.
Low level moisture return into the central high plains has been
fairly weak as expected as dewpoints have increased into the low to
mid 50s this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT THU OCT 10 2013

As the surface low continues to deepen this afternoon, a dryline
will also tighten up along the Kansas/Colorado border. Mid level
cooling will commence over eastern Colorado as the upper system
approaches. Model soundings are showing weak CAPE values on the
order of 400-500 j/kg. Given the strong wind flow, there will be
some strong shear through the 0-6 km layer. Any discreet
thunderstorms along the dryline early this evening could possibly
develop some rotation with better potential for severe hail. For the
most part, think that the greatest severe weather threat will be
some damaging thunderstorm wind gusts.  The 500 millibar low is
expected to track across central Colorado this evening and into
northwest Nebraska by Friday morning. With the axis of the upper jet
extending through west central and north central Kansas this
evening, the best area of upward vertical motion will extend from
west central Kansas northward in the left exit region of the upper
jet. Most of the thunderstorm development will be into west central
and northwest Kansas with scattered to isolated storms farther south
across southwest Kansas.

Winds have increased into advisory criteria speeds this afternoon
and expect them to stay up into the evening hours before the upper
system lifts out. Will keep the wind advisory intact through
expiration time at 04z and let the evening shift adjust and cancel
as necessary.

Much quieter weather can be expected across western Kansas on Friday
as the upper low/trough continues to lift out and westerly flow
aloft spreads over the central High Plains.  Dry downslope
conditions will result in sunny skies.  High temperatures will range
from the lower 70s along the Colorado border to the low 80s around
Medicine Lodge.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT THU OCT 10 2013

Medium range models indicate an upper level trough of low pressure
lifting northeast out of the Dakotas into Canada to begin the period
Saturday. As it does so, drier air will filter southward into
western Kansas resulting in dry conditions across the area through
early Sunday. A secondary upper level trough is then projected
to dip southeast across the Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin
Region over the course of the weekend bringing the next reasonable
chance for precip to portions of western Kansas late Sunday. As the
upper level feature approaches, an area of high pressure is
expected to drift slowly east out of the Northern Plains into the
Upper Midwest slowly returning a southeast flow to western Kansas.
A subsequent moisture return will help increase moisture into
central and portions of southwest Kansas with dewpoints climbing
back up into the 50s(F) to possibly near 60F ahead of an
approaching cold front. As favorable dynamic support aloft
increases, periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected
late Sunday through Monday.

Near normal temperatures are expected Saturday, even as cooler air
filters southward into western Kansas in wake of a cold frontal
passage late Friday. The NAM/GFS/ECMWF show H85 temperatures falling
to just above 10C across central Kansas to near 15C in far southwest
Kansas. So, even with plenty of sunshine, look for highs only up
into the 60s(F) along the I-70 corridor to possibly the lower 70s(F)
closer to the Oklahoma border Saturday afternoon. A gradual warming
trend is then projected through Monday as the low level flow becomes
more southerly Sunday and southwesterly Monday drawing warmer air
northward into western Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT THU OCT 10 2013

Strong southerly winds will continue to increase this afternoon.
Sustained winds around 25 to 30 knots with gusts to around 35 knots
are expected to develop especially at Garden City and Dodge City.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop over eastern Colorado and
far western Kansas by around 23z and move northeast through the
evening hours. Garden City will have the best chance of being
impacted by thunderstorms which should be around the 01z-04z time
frame. Will carry vcts at Dodge City and Hays where there is more
uncertainty about thunderstorm coverage.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  50  77  43  70 /  30  10   0   0
GCK  46  75  43  69 /  50  10   0   0
EHA  47  73  43  68 /  30   0   0   0
LBL  46  76  44  71 /  30   0   0   0
HYS  53  78  44  68 /  40  10   0   0
P28  57  82  49  73 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY until 11 PM CDT /10 PM MDT/ this evening FOR
KSZ030-043>045-061>064-074>078-084>088.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Gerard
SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Gerard

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
437 AM CDT THU OCT 10 2013

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-110945-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
437 AM CDT THU OCT 10 2013 /337 AM MDT THU OCT 10 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 283 THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SEE THE LATEST URGENT WEATHER MESSAGE
FOR MORE DETAILS.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR WESTERN
KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. QUARTER SIZED
HAIL...WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL
IF ANY OF THESE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

A FEW SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED WEST OF HIGHWAY 283 THIS EVENING.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

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