Special Weather Statement, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
544 PM EDT THU AUG 8 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO THIS WEEKEND...AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES SLOWLY CROSSES
THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY STALLS NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE. A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE
MASON DIXON AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...THE STRONGEST
STORMS OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. THESE STORMS ARE OUT AHEAD OF A
SLOW MOVING FRONT LYING NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS
NEW YORK TO OHIO...CLIPPING THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF PA. THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE BEING FUELED BY MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR TEMPS TO GET
IN THE LOW 80S. THIS COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S HAVE
PROVIDED THE NEEDED ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTION AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ANOTHER CONTRIBUTING FACTOR IS THE DIRECTIONAL WIND
SHEAR. THE MAIN THREAT IS LOCAL HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. HAVE
NOT ISSUED A FFA...DUE TO THE VARIABILITY IN THE LOCATION BUT THE
LOWER SUSQ AND LAURELS COULD RECEIVE ANOTHER HALF INCH TO
INCH...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.
FLOOD PROBLEMS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE SLOW MOVING CLUSTERS...AND
ENTRAINING CELLS. THE MOST LIKELY REGION IS THE SOUTHERN TIER
COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAINFALL OCCURRED WEDNESDAY
EVENING...PRIMARILY YORK...LANCASTER AND CAMBRIA COUNTIES.

GIVEN THE DYNAMICS PRESENT...THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH CONVECTION CONTINUING
PAST 06Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE ANOMALOUS PW PLUME IS SLOWER TO BE NUDGED EASTWARD IN MOST
RECENT GUIDANCE...WITH GFS INDICATING 2"+ LINGERING ACROSS EASTERN
HALF OF CENTRAL PA BY 12Z FRI. INDEED...THE THREAT OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND TOWARD 12Z
FRI. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY HAS THE BOUNDARY
MAKES ITS WAY TROUGH DURING DIURNAL MAXIMUMS. THE HIGHEST POPS
FOR FRIDAY WILL CORRESPOND WITH THESE HIGHER PWS...WHICH ONLY
SLOWLY DECREASE BY 00Z SAT AS THE UPPER FLOW GRADUALLY BACKS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY GRADUALLY ADVECTING DRIER AIR INTO CENTRAL PA
FRIDAY NIGHT. ALONG THE BOUNDARY SEEMS TO BE A STRONG REGION OF
POTENTIAL VORTICITY WHICH SHOULD AID CONVECTION AND INCREASE THE
PROBABILITIES FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...THOUGH WE ARE CURRENTLY NOT OUTLOOKED BY SPC.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF AN
UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY. SEVERAL PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVES ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL SUPPORT SEVERAL FRONTS MOVING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES EAST INTO THE NORTHEAST. AIR FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
KEEP THE REGION IN A MOIST AIR FLOW AT LEAST INTO THE WEEKEND...OR
UNTIL THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH.

ATTEMPTS IN RECENT DAYS FOR THE FRONTS/MOISTURE TO BE PUSHED
EASTWARD BY OR THROUGH THE WEEKEND CONTINUE TO BE SLOWED BY THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS. HAVE THUS LEANED PESSIMISTIC AND KEPT GENERALLY
LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS SRN SECTION NOT ONLY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BUT INTO NEXT WEEK AS A FRONT A BOUNDARY LOOKS TO LAY TO
THE SOUTH OF PA WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TO
RUN ALONG IT.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. CONDITIONS
GENERALLY VFR...PUNCTUATED BY AREAS OF MVFR AND EVEN ISOLATED IFR
IN THE HEAVIER AREAS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS.

PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...WITH MVFR AND
EVENTUALLY IFR CIGS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SINK THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY...PRODUCING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CIGS
SHOULD REMAIN MVFR FOR THE MOST PART FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...GENERALLY MVFR WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS.
SAT...MVFR/IFR EARLY...THEN VFR.
SUN-MON...GENERALLY VFR...BUT POSSIBLE AM RESTRICTIONS IN FOG.
TUE...VFR...BUT POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA WITH NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ROSS/DEVOIR/RXR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/CERU
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/CERU
LONG TERM...GARTNER
AVIATION...JUNG/CERU

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
134 PM EDT THU AUG 08 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SW PENFIELD           41.20N  78.61W
08/07/2013                   CLEARFIELD         PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN ALONG ROUTE 255 NEAR PENFIELD

0510 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TREASURE LAKE           41.17N  78.72W
08/07/2013                   CLEARFIELD         PA   911 CALL CENTER

            LARGE TREES DOWN IN TREASURE LAKE

0515 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 E DU BOIS             41.12N  78.74W
08/07/2013                   CLEARFIELD         PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON WIRES

0520 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WEEDVILLE               41.28N  78.49W
08/07/2013                   ELK                PA   911 CALL CENTER

            LARGE TREE ACROSS BENNETTS VALLEY HIGHWAY

0630 PM     TSTM WND GST     VINCO                   40.41N  78.84W
08/07/2013  M89 MPH          CAMBRIA            PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            89 MPH WIND GUST IN VINCO

0630 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SE CHICKAREE          40.44N  78.87W
08/07/2013                   CAMBRIA            PA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN IN JACKSON TWP

0640 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     6 NNE JOHNSTOWN         40.41N  78.88W
08/07/2013                   CAMBRIA            PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FUNNEL CLOUD OBSERVED LOOKING SOUTH FROM MILE HILL ROAD

0640 PM     HAIL             3 SSW FORT LITTLETON    40.02N  77.95W
08/07/2013  M1.00 INCH       FULTON             PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            1 INCH HAIL

0655 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W JENNERSTOWN         40.16N  79.10W
08/07/2013                   SOMERSET           PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE TREES DOWN WEST OF JENNERSTOWN

0655 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 W JENNERSTOWN         40.16N  79.12W
08/07/2013                   SOMERSET           PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ROOF OFF BARN WEST OF JENNERSTOWN

0659 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SE BOSWELL            40.15N  79.01W
08/07/2013                   SOMERSET           PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            BARN ROOF BLOWN OFF ON HORNER CHURCH ROAD

0710 PM     HAIL             WINDBER                 40.23N  78.83W
08/07/2013  E0.88 INCH       SOMERSET           PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL IN WINDBER

0715 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     3 SE WINDBER            40.20N  78.79W
08/07/2013                   SOMERSET           PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTED 3 SE OF WINDBER

0715 PM     HAIL             8 NE FANNETTSBURG       40.13N  77.72W
08/07/2013  M1.00 INCH       FRANKLIN           PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            1 INCH HAIL 2W AMBERSON VALLEY

0720 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WINDBER                 40.23N  78.83W
08/07/2013                   SOMERSET           PA   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TREE DOWN

0800 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WNW WATERSIDE         40.19N  78.39W
08/07/2013                   BEDFORD            PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN ON NORTH RD

0830 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 W PORT ROYAL          40.53N  77.41W
08/07/2013                   JUNIATA            PA   911 CALL CENTER

            EIGHT LARGE TREES DOWN

1130 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 NNE HANOVER           39.84N  76.97W
08/07/2013                   YORK               PA   SOCIAL MEDIA

            ROAD FLOODING NE OF HANOVER

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1300338 CTP1300339 CTP1300347 CTP1300346 CTP1300341
CTP1300355 CTP1300340 CTP1300350 CTP1300343 CTP1300344 CTP1300345
CTP1300342 CTP1300348 CTP1300351 CTP1300353 CTP1300354 CTP1300349
CTP1300352

COLBERT

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
505 PM EDT THU AUG 08 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 S JOHNSTOWN           40.28N  78.92W
08/08/2013                   CAMBRIA            PA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EISENHOWER BLVD AT BUSHWACK RD 3 FEET OF WATER OVER
            ROAD

0450 PM     FLASH FLOOD      RICHLAND                40.60N  78.49W
08/08/2013                   CAMBRIA            PA   911 CALL CENTER

            HOUSES FLOODED ON ARBUTUS AVENUE

0500 PM     FLASH FLOOD      JOHNSTOWN               40.33N  78.92W
08/08/2013                   CAMBRIA            PA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            25 ROADS CLOSED ACROSS THE JOHNSTOWN AREA

0500 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 NE RICHLAND           40.62N  78.46W
08/08/2013                   CAMBRIA            PA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HOUSES FLOODED ALONG FULMER ROAD

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1300357 CTP1300358 CTP1300359 CTP1300360

TYBURSKI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
515 PM EDT THU AUG 08 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 SSE JOHNSTOWN         40.30N  78.90W
08/08/2013                   CAMBRIA            PA   SOCIAL MEDIA

            OHIO STREET FLOODED IN MOXHAM

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1300361

TYBURSKI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
518 PM EDT THU AUG 08 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0517 PM     FLASH FLOOD      GEISTOWN                40.29N  78.87W
08/08/2013                   CAMBRIA            PA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            SAMS RUN OUT OF ITS BANKS IN GEISTOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1300362

TYBURSKI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
646 PM EDT THU AUG 8 2013

PAZ005-006-010-011-082330-
CAMERON PA-ELK PA-MCKEAN PA-POTTER PA-
646 PM EDT THU AUG 8 2013

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CAMERON...NORTHEASTERN
ELK...SOUTHEASTERN MCKEAN AND SOUTHWESTERN POTTER COUNTIES...

AT 642 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM EAST
BRANCH DAM TO TRUMAN TO HICKS RUN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS. VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THESE STORMS...AND WILL CAUSE
WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND FILL POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE RAIN WILL
CAUSE RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS. THESE STORMS WILL
AFFECT EMPORIUM AND NORWICH.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 219...STATE ROAD
120.

LAT...LON 4182 7837 4171 7810 4157 7791 4126 7825
      4141 7844 4152 7870

FORECASTER: JUNG