Severe Thunderstorm Warning 148, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
326 PM EDT WED AUG 7 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO THE WEEKEND...AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM
THE MIDWEST SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION AND THEN STALLS NEAR THE
MASON- DIXON LINE. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDS HAVING TROUBLE BREAKING UP ACROSS MOST OF CWA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A MORE WINTER LIKE COLD AIR DAMMING PATTERN WITH
LOW LEVEL NE AG FLOW WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF CWA. HAVE
SEEN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOP AND DISSIPATE ACROSS AREA BUT
MORE ACTIVE CONVECTION MOVING INTO AREA FROM THE W. ANTICIPATING
THESE STORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THE MOVE EASTWARD INTO A MORE STABLE
AIR MASS...THOUGH A FEW LOCALLY HEAVY SHORT LIVED DOWNPOURS AND
LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL LITTLE OVERNIGHT MAINLY STAYING IN THE 60S
WITH DEWPOINTS NOTICEABLY HIGHER THEN WE'VE SEEN OVER THE LAST
COUPLE WEEKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
MODELS SHOW A PW SURGE ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION
ON THU AND WILL KEEP THE POPS HIGH FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTERNOON. STILL VARIABILITY IN THE SOLUTIONS AS TO THE
LOCATION AND AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA...BUT SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER WITH MORE SUN EXPECTED. DEWPOINTS WILL BE OPPRESSIVE...LIKELY
TOPPING 70 IN MANY SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF AN
UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY. SEVERAL PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVES ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL SUPPORT SEVERAL FRONTS MOVING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES EAST INTO THE NORTHEAST. AIR FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
KEEP THE REGION IN A MOIST AIR FLOW AT LEAST INTO THE WEEKEND...OR
UNTIL THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH.

ATTEMPTS IN RECENT DAYS FOR THE FRONTS/MOISTURE TO BE PUSHED
EASTWARD BY OR THROUGH THE WEEKEND CONTINUE TO BE SLOWED BY THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS. HAVE THUS LEANED PESSIMISTIC AND KEPT GENERALLY
LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS SRN SECTION NOT ONLY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BUT INTO NEXT WEEK AS A FRONT A BOUNDARY LOOKS TO LAY TO
THE SOUTH OF PA WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TO
RUN ALONG IT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP LOW STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE REGION WITH
IFR TO LOW MVFR CIGS PERSISTING THIS AFTERNOON. ADDED A TEMPO TO
DEAL WITH BAND OF CONVECTION THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED THU-FRI AS FRONTAL WAVES
MOVE ACROSS REGION.

OUTLOOK...
THU-FRI...GENERALLY MVFR WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS.
SAT-SUN...RETURN TO MAINLY VFR AS FRONT IS FCST TO BRIEFLY PUSH
SWD...HOWEVER THE LATEST MDL RUNS SUGGEST ANOTHER FRONTAL WAVE MAY
IMPACT SRN PA LATER SUNDAY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ROSS/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...ROSS
SHORT TERM...ROSS
LONG TERM...GARTNER
AVIATION...ROSS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
707 PM EDT WED AUG 7 2013

PAZ024>026-033>036-082315-
CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-
707 PM EDT WED AUG 7 2013

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 482 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PAZ017>019-027-028-056-063>065-082315-
CLEARFIELD-NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-PERRY-
CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-
707 PM EDT WED AUG 7 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING.
ISOLATED STORMS MAY CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PAZ004>006-010>012-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-057>059-066-082315-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-TIOGA-
NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-
SNYDER-MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-
LANCASTER-
707 PM EDT WED AUG 7 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

RXR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
604 PM EDT WED AUG 07 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SW PENFIELD           41.20N  78.61W
08/07/2013                   CLEARFIELD         PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN ALONG ROUTE 255 NEAR PENFIELD

0510 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TREASURE LAKE           41.17N  78.72W
08/07/2013                   CLEARFIELD         PA   911 CALL CENTER

            LARGE TREES DOWN IN TREASURE LAKE

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1300338 CTP1300339

TYBURSKI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
638 PM EDT WED AUG 7 2013

PAZ012-018-019-024>027-045-072315-
BLAIR PA-CAMBRIA PA-HUNTINGDON PA-MIFFLIN PA-NORTHERN CENTRE PA-
NORTHERN CLINTON PA-SOUTHERN CENTRE PA-SOUTHERN CLINTON PA-
638 PM EDT WED AUG 7 2013

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT BLAIR...CENTRE...EAST
CENTRAL CAMBRIA...NORTHERN HUNTINGDON...NORTHWESTERN MIFFLIN AND
SOUTH CENTRAL CLINTON COUNTIES...

AT 633 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM 7
MILES NORTHWEST OF BALD EAGLE STATE PARK TO UNIONVILLE TO BALD EAGLE
TO PENN STATE ALTOONA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. THESE STORMS
WILL AFFECT STATE COLLEGE...BEECH CREEK...LAMAR AND SEVEN MOUNTAINS.

OTHER NOTABLE LOCATIONS IMPACTED WILL BE... DELGROSSO'S AMUSEMENT
PARK...LAKEMONT PARK AND ISLAND WATERPARK...PEOPLES NATURAL GAS
FIELD...PENNSYLVANIA MILITARY MUSEUM...TUSSEY MOUNTAIN SKI AREA...
PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIVERSITY...JUNIATA COLLEGE AND PENN STATE
ALTOONA.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTERSTATES...
I-80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 149 AND 178...I-99 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 29
AND 85.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 22...ROUTE
220...ALTERNATE ROUTE 220...ROUTE 322...STATE ROAD 26...STATE ROAD
45...STATE ROAD 350...STATE ROAD 453.

LAT...LON 4104 7738 4072 7753 4056 7783 4035 7822
      4054 7864 4075 7825 4091 7795 4123 7780

FORECASTER: JUNG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
650 PM EDT WED AUG 07 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     6 NNE JOHNSTOWN         40.41N  78.88W
08/07/2013                   CAMBRIA            PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FUNNEL CLOUD OBSERVED LOOKING SOUTH FROM MILE HILL ROAD

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1300340

TYBURSKI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
700 PM EDT WED AUG 7 2013

PAZ033-072345-
SOMERSET PA-
700 PM EDT WED AUG 7 2013

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOMERSET COUNTY...

AT 656 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM SEVEN
SPRINGS TO FRIENDSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS. THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT ROCKWOOD...ACOSTA...STOYSTOWN AND
INDIAN LAKE.

OTHER NOTABLE LOCATIONS IMPACTED WILL BE... FLIGHT 93 NATIONAL
MEMORIAL.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE PENNSYLVANIA TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 100
AND 122.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 30...ROUTE
40...ROUTE 219.

LAT...LON 3971 7939 3973 7941 3982 7937 3985 7942
      3990 7941 4010 7925 4012 7922 4011 7882
      3971 7891

FORECASTER: RXR/CR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
710 PM EDT WED AUG 07 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     TSTM WND GST     VINCO                   40.41N  78.84W
08/07/2013  M89 MPH          CAMBRIA            PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            89 MPH WIND GUST IN VINCO

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1300341

TYBURSKI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
809 PM EDT WED AUG 7 2013

PAZ027-028-056-080100-
JUNIATA PA-MIFFLIN PA-PERRY PA-
809 PM EDT WED AUG 7 2013

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EASTERN MIFFLIN...
JUNIATA AND WESTERN PERRY COUNTIES...

AT 806 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM
BURNHAM TO HONEY GROVE TO PERULACK...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. THESE STORMS
WILL AFFECT BELLTOWN...KISTLER...MCALISTERVILLE...NEW BLOOMFIELD AND
NEWPORT.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 22/522...ROUTE
322...ROUTE 322/22...ROUTE 522.

LAT...LON 4025 7764 4026 7767 4029 7767 4027 7770
      4037 7775 4071 7755 4072 7736 4070 7735
      4068 7718 4069 7711 4042 7714 4027 7732
      4029 7733 4026 7742 4031 7737 4024 7749

FORECASTER: JUNG