Severe Thunderstorm Warning 168, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
514 PM EDT WED SEP 11 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE DISPLACED WHEN A
COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON THURSDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER TASTE OF FALL WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER THE ALLEGHENIES AND
CENTRAL MTS. RAIN HAS BEEN GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH SO
FAR...BUT SOME MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS THE
STORMS SLOWLY WEAKEN AND SOME MOVE OVER WETTER AREAS. FFG IS
REALLY HIGH SINCE IT HAS BEEN SO DRY. COLD RAIN PROCESS SEEMS TO
BE DOMINATING...WITH PLENTY OF ICE TO MAKE LTG. SO AS EXPECTED
WW520 WILL CONTINUE FOR NOW - BUT THE COLD AIR GENERATED IN THE
STORMS IS STARTING TO STABILIZE THE REGION. THE CAPES CONTINUE TO
BE VERY HIGH AND SHEAR LOW. SO THE PULSE NATURE OF THESE STORMS
SHOULD CONTINUE. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH THE
HIGH AMBIENT MSTR AND SOME CLEARING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WITH SUNSET...THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN/DISSIPATE IF THEY
HAVE NOT ALREADY. WILL LINGER POPS INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
NIGHT FOR THE NORTH AND SOUTH. A BREAK IN THE PRECIP SHOULD OCCUR
FOR 6-12 HRS...UNTIL THE FRONT NEARS AND THE MAIN SHORT WAVE
TROUGH DIGS THE BIG TROUGH OFF TO OUR WEST. FROPA EXPECTED THROUGH
THE DAYLIGHT HRS FROM NW-SE. AREA CONTINUES TO BE OUTLOOKED FOR
SLIGHT RISK...AND THIS SEEMS VERY LIKELY. CAPES SHOULD GROW LARGE
AND SHEAR BECOMES A BIG FACTOR. THIS SHOULD LEND MUCH MORE
ORGANIZATION TO THE STORMS...GENERALLY MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS MOST
LIKELY IN THE MORNING TRANSITIONING TO BOWING SEGMENTS/LONG BOW
ECHO. WILL TRY TO FOLLOW THE FRONT WITH POP GRIDS...RAMPING UP
INTO THE AFTN AND TAPERING THEM IN THE AFTN FROM NW-SE.

FRONT SHOULD HAVE CLEARED THE CWA BY NIGHT FALL. THUS...POPS
SHOULD ONLY BE NECESSARY IN THE FAR E AND MAYBE THE N THURS NIGHT.
TEMPS THURS WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN WED...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA
AND CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST REGION FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM HOWEVER WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH IT...AND COLDER AIR BEHIND IT. THIS WILL LIMIT ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DUE TO
THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SHOWERS/STORMS IN
THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

  THE FRONT DROPS THROUGH FRIDAY...WHICH SHOULD FURTHER DROP
TEMPERATURES...BRINGING AUTUMN BACK TO THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW NORMAL. SO EXPECTING A COOLER WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
FROM THE MID 60S ON SATURDAY...TO LOW 70S ON SUNDAY.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO DROP THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW SOMETIME
MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER FRONT. THE WEAKNESS OF THE SYSTEM AND THE
DRYNESS OF THE AIR IN PLACE BRINGING INTO QUESTION HOW MUCH PCPN MAY
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...SO KEPT MINIMAL POPS ATTM. THE SECOND
ANTICYCLONE FOLLOWS TUE INTO WEDNESDAY FOR YET MORE DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NUMEROUS TSTORMS ALREADY GOING...AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING. STABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR IN THE COLD POOL OVER SWRN
TERMINALS AFTER 21Z. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
DOWNDRAFTS OF ANY CELL. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AND LIGHT FOR MOST
LOCATIONS AFTER THE STORMS DIE OFF - BUT GENERALLY OUT OF THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST UNTIL THEN. CIGS AND VSBYS MAY DIP TO IFR IF ONE
OF THESE SCT SHRA MOVES OVERHEAD.

LLVL MSTR WILL REMAIN VERY HIGH OVERNIGHT AND LKLY RESULT SOME
MVFR VISBYS. THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT
PUSHING SEWD FROM THE LWR LKS. EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY TO BE
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE AS IT CROSSES THE AIRSPACE ON THURSDAY...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR STG TO SVR TSTORMS.

STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING MID-DAY THU WILL CREATE
WIDESPREAD STORMS...WITH MVFR VSBYS/CIGS LIKELY...GENERALLY
BETWEEN 15-18Z IN THE NW AND ENDING AROUND 00Z IN THE SE. COLD AIR
ALOFT UNDER A TROUGH MOVING STEADILY W-E MAY ALLOW SCT SHRA IN
THE WRN HIGHLANDS ON FRIDAY AFTN. OTHERWISE...OUTSIDE THE NORMAL
MORNING FOG...VFR IS EXPECTED FOR FRI.

OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...VFR. NO SIG WX.
MON...CFROPA POSS...MAINLY VFR WITH GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...CERU
AVIATION...DANGELO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1244 PM EDT WED SEP 11 2013

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>027-033-034-037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-121645-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-
SOMERSET-BEDFORD-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-
SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-
1244 PM EDT WED SEP 11 2013

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 520 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AND PUSH
EASTWARD TOMORROW AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

PAZ028-035-036-056>059-063>066-121645-
JUNIATA-FULTON-FRANKLIN-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-
ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
1244 PM EDT WED SEP 11 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS THE COLD FRONT
ADVANCES EASTWARD TOMORROW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

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