Special Marine Warning 39, NWS Cleveland, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
929 PM EDT TUE JUL 9 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER MINNESOTA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING EAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONGER CONVECTION WITH THE HEAVIER RAIN HAS MAINLY SAGGED INTO THE
SOUTHERN TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES FOR NOW. A FEW NEW SHRA POPPING UP IN
NW CO'S...BUT NO STORMS SO FAR. WILL LEAVE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS IS.
A GOOD PART OF THE WATCH AREA CURRENTLY HAS FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS
ONGOING.

COMBINATION OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT...INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET
FEEDING INTO THE AREA AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL WORK TOGETHER TO ALLOW
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP REST OF TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING.
PW'S AROUND 2 INCHES WILL MEAN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A FEW SEVERE
STORMS COULD STILL OCCUR IN THE SW THRU MIDNIGHT BUT THINK SEVERE
THREAT HAS BEEN REDUCED FOR THE REST OF THE AREA DUE TO RAIN COOLED
AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THERE IS JUST A LINGERING SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING IN THE EAST AND THEN DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS COOLER AND MUCH LESS HUMID AIR OVERSPREADS THE REGION.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND
THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION. HAVE
LOWERED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW MAV AND EXTENDED MOS GUIDANCE
ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE ERIE AS A COOLER ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL.
HAVE LOWERED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE NORMALLY COOLER INLAND
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD. SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WILL BE COMFORTABLE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.  THE
SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST BY LATE SUNDAY.  THIS WILL
ALLOW INCREASING MOISTURE AND WARMTH.  SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL CREEP
BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 60S ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE
UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WILL GET THE FIRST ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST OF THE TAF
FORECAST SITES BY 02Z-03Z. MORE SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND CROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. MOST OF THE
SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY MAY STAY SOUTH OF KERI. BRIEF IFR
VISIBILITIES AND WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
STRONGER STORMS UNTIL THE PREDAWN HOURS. SOME MVFR CUMULUS WILL
DEVELOP WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN CEILINGS WILL EVENTUALLY RISE TO
VFR. THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE FOR NEW DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INLAND FROM LAKE ERIE. NOT VERY CONFIDENT O
THE TIMING AND LOCATION AND WILL JUST FORECAST "VICINITY" AT THIS
TIME.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR EXPECTED IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY WED
NIGHT WITH NON-VFR FOG/MIST THURSDAY MORN...THEN VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.  UNTIL THEN S TO SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE.  THE FLOW WILL
BECOME NW BEHIND THE FRONT BUT DON'T THINK SPEEDS WILL GET STRONG
ENOUGH TO GET SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
OVER THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.  NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME
EASTERLY ON SATURDAY AS THE HIGH PASSES TO THE NORTH.  THE FLOW WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME S TO SE ON SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE PUSHES JUST
TO THE EAST OF THE LAKE.  FOR THE MOST PART SPEEDS WILL BE UNDER 15
KNOTS THE ENTIRE PERIOD.  STRONG STORMS ARE LIKELY ON THE LAKE
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR OHZ003-006>009-
     017>019-027>032-036>038-047.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/KEC
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KUBINA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
722 PM EDT TUE JUL 9 2013

OHZ010>014-020>023-033-089-PAZ001>003-102330-
LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-
TRUMBULL-MAHONING-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-
CRAWFORD PA-
722 PM EDT TUE JUL 9 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SO LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD OCCUR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. IN
ADDITION...REPEATING STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAKING FLOODING A POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
HAVE ALREADY SEEN HEAVY RAIN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. RAINFALL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES IN SOME
AREAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED BUT REPORTS OF FLOODING AND
SEVERE WEATHER ARE APPRECIATED.

OHZ003-006>009-017>019-027>032-036>038-047-102330-
LUCAS-WOOD-OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-WYANDOT-
CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MARION-MORROW-HOLMES-KNOX-
722 PM EDT TUE JUL 9 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...AND MAY QUICKLY PRODUCE
FLOODING. SOILS ARE ALREADY SATURATED IN MANY AREAS WITH CREEKS
AND RIVERS RUNNING WITH INCREASED FLOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE. DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT. IN ADDITION...TRAINING OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING FLOODING A POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM FINDLAY TO MANSFIELD. RAINFALL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING MAY EXCEED 2 INCHES IN SOME AREAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED BUT REPORTS OF FLOODING AND
SEVERE WEATHER ARE APPRECIATED.

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-102330-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO BUFFALO NY-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH-GENEVA-
ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM VERMILION TO AVON POINT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
722 PM EDT TUE JUL 9 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON LAKE ERIE TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE. DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1104 PM EDT TUE JUL 09 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0752 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W WARREN              41.24N 80.86W
07/09/2013                   TRUMBULL           OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE BRANCH, ALMOST 60 FEET IN LENGTH, DOWN ON A HOUSE
            AND A CAR.

&&

KOSARIK