Special Weather Statement, NWS Buffalo, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
213 PM EDT WED APR 10 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS RIDING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED
FROM THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING
SEVERAL PERIODS OF RAIN TO OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. ON THE COLDER
NORTH SIDE OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE
FOR SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
A WARMER AND MOIST FLOW FRIDAY WILL END THE THREAT OF WINTRY
MIX...BUT ADDITIONAL SOAKING RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR THIS PACKAGE UPDATE WE HAVE ISSUED BOTH WINTER HEADLINES AND
FLOOD HEADLINES.

FOR THE WINTER HEADLINES...A COMPLEX AND LATE SEASON PATTERN IS
EVOLVING THIS AFTERNOON...THAT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A WINTRY MIX LATE
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. CURRENTLY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND BACK THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TO THE NORTH OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY A BROAD
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING ACROSS WESTERN ONTARIO. FLOW
AROUND THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE NORTHEAST WINDS WITH
A SHALLOW FREEZING LAYER PUSHING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA AND INTO MUCH
OF OUR CWA. MEANWHILE AROUND 5-7K FEET A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MOIST
FLOW WILL BRING BOTH MOISTURE AND WARMING ALOFT. ISENTROPIC LIFT
ACROSS A TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE (850 HPA TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
+10C TO -4C) WILL PRODUCE PRECIPITATION.

THIS IS A LATE SEASON EVENT AS USUALLY A MID APRIL SUN ANGLE WILL
WARM THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUCH THAT FREEZING RAIN IS UNLIKELY. WE DID
COMPARE THIS PRESENT CASE WITH AN EVENT FROM 10 YEARS AGO...APRIL
3-4 OF 2003. THIS WAS A SIMILAR EVENT WITH A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH AND A RIBBON OF MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. BUFKIT PROFILES WITH THE APRIL 2003 EVENT WERE
SLIGHTLY COLDER AT THE SURFACE...ABOUT A DEGREE C COLDER...WHILE
THE DEPTH OF THE COLDER AIR IS SLIGHTLY GREATER WITH THIS PRESENT CASE.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE LOW 30S ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND MID TO
UPPER 30S CLOSE TO THE STATE LINE. WHILE THE LIKELIHOOD OF
PRECIPITATION IS HIGH CONFIDENCE...JUST A DEGREE OR TWO SEPARATES
FREEZING RAIN FROM JUST A PLAIN COLD RAIN. A GREATER PERCENTAGE OF
THE 09Z SREF MEMBERS...COMBINED WITH SOUNDING PROFILES OF BOTH THE
NAM AND GFS...OUTPUT FROM THE SPC SSEO MODEL MEMBERS...AND
COMPARISON TO THE EVENT 10 YEARS AGO BRINGS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE THE
DEPTH OF COLD AIR WILL LIKELY BE GREAT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE HILL TOPS.

THE FOCUS OF THE FREEZING RAIN...MIXED WITH SOME SNOW AND SLEET
TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE THE COLD AIR PUSHING
SOUTHWARD WILL FIRST ARRIVE. BY LATE TONIGHT...AND TOWARDS DAWN THE
COLD AIR SHOULD BE WEDGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO SUCH THAT
SOME FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY AND
ACROSS THE NORTHERN NIAGARA FRONTIER. THIS COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY SUCH THAT MUCH OF THE CWA WILL
SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN. EVEN THOUGH THE APRIL SUN ANGLE...THICK CLOUD
COVER AND TEMPERATURES LINGERING IN THE LOW TO MID 30S WILL SUPPORT
FREEZING RAIN EVEN THROUGH THE DAY LIGHT HOURS THURSDAY. THE LEAST
LIKELIEST PLACE FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL BE ALONG THE NY/PA STATE LINE
WHERE THE COLD AIR MAY REMAIN SHALLOW ENOUGH TO NOT SUPPORT FREEZING
RAIN...BUT RATHER JUST PLAIN RAIN. STILL THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL LIKELY SEE SOME FREEZING RAIN.

FREEZING RAIN MAY CAUSE SOME SLICK ICY SPOTS ON ROAD AND WALK WAYS
THURSDAY MORNING...AND AGAIN IN THE EVENING WITH THE SETTING SUN.
ICE ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING WILL LIKELY BE HEAVIEST
ACROSS THE INLAND NIAGARA FRONTIER AND ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY
WHERE UP TO A THIRD OF AN INCH OF ICE MAY ACCUMULATE ON
TREES...POWER LINES AND OTHER ELEVATED OBJECTS.

WARMER AIR WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION STARTING LATER TOMORROW FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH...AND END THE THREAT OF WINTRY MIX.

FOR THE FLOOD HEADLINE...A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
CWA...EXCEPT FOR THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. SEVERAL WAVES OF
RAINFALL LAST NIGHT AND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL LEAD TO
BOTH GENERAL AREAS OF FLOOD CONCERNS AS WELL AS RIVER CONCERNS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS SEEN ON IR AND REGIONAL RADARS OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES...AND JUST SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL BRING ANOTHER
INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
STEADY FLOW OF MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

HIGHS TOMORROW WILL LINGER IN THE 30S WITH A NORTHEAST FLOW...EXCEPT
FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE SOME LOW TO MID 40S AIR TEMPERATURES
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE STATE LINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

THE FOCUS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST ON
FRIDAY AS THE BROAD SURFACE LOW MOVES OVERHEAD THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES WITH THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
BEFORE EVENTUALLY LIFTING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT.
A BREAK IN PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS A DRY SLOT ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD.
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT ONCE AGAIN AS THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH AND WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
STEADY INT HE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS MOST AREAS BEFORE FALLING INTO
THE MID 30S OVERNIGHT...AND THIS MEANS THAT SOME OF THE RAIN
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN TIER
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL LAST THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE WE GET ON SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
NORTH EAST FROM THE PLAINS STATES WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND INTO THE
60S ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
AFTER THE SURFACE LOW PUSHES A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS NEW YORK STATE

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 18Z IFR TO VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION. A
NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE IFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS FOR THE KIAG/KBUF/KROC AIRFIELDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE TWO CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS...ONE NOW JUST SOUTH AND EAST
OF LAKE ERIE...MAY BRING A THUNDERSTORM TO THE SOUTHERN TIER THE
FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE SECOND CLUSTER...OVER
WESTERN SOUTHERN ONTARIO PENINSULA WILL LIKELY REACH THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL RUN INTO SLIGHTLY
MORE STABLE AIR AND WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE KROC AND KART TAF.

A STEADY FLOW OF MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A DEEPENING POOL OF COLDER...FREEZING AIR FROM
THE NORTH MAY CHANGE THIS PRECIPITATION TO A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY AND FREEZING RAIN SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO TOMORROW. WILL
INSERT FZRA INTO THE KROC/KBUF/KIAG TAF SITES FOR THE DAY TOMORROW.
THE COLD AIR MAY NOT REACH NEAR THE KJHW TERMINAL AND WILL JUST
LEAVE A COLD PLAIN RAIN SHOWERS IN THE TAF.

ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION OUTSIDE ANY SNOW SHOWERS THAT
WILL PRIMARILY EFFECT THE TUG HILL...MVFR OR VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN. CHANCE OF
FZRA/SLEET/SNOW EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT FOR KBUF/KROC/KIAG.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. POSSIBLE HIGHER
ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS.
SUNDAY... MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED JUST SOUTH
OF THE LOWER LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...BEFORE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
SLIDES EASTWARD ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND ASSOCIATED WAVES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT...BEFORE INCREASING TO
ADVISORY CRITERIA VERY LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SOME OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION OF THE WEEK IS LIKELY TO FALL
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS WESTERN NEW YORK BECOMES THE FOCUS
OF DEEP ISENTROPIC UPLIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE/MID
LEVEL CYCLONE. THIS COUPLED WITH PWATS IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 1.25
INCHES...3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...MEANS THAT WE WILL
SEE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF THREE INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER AND FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH AMOUNTS GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF
TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

GIVEN THAT RECENT RAINS HAVE ALREADY PUSHED A NUMBER OF THE
FASTER-RESPONDING CREEKS AROUND BUFFALO TOWARDS BANK-FULL OVER THE
LAST 12-24 HOURS...THERE IS A CONCERN THAT THE COMING PRECIPITATION
COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING OF AREA CREEKS AND LOW-LYING
AREAS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A CONCERN IN
LIGHT OF THE ROBUST SNOWPACK THAT IS STILL IN PLACE ON THE TUG
HILL PLATEAU...HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THAT AREA COULD ALSO YIELD
FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY EVEN THOUGH
RAINFALL TOTALS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS HEFTY AS THEY ARE
PREDICTED TO BE FARTHER WEST. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 7
PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO...WHILE ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...WHICH
WILL HAVE LESS PRECIPITATION AND BE SLIGHTLY COLDER A FLOOD WATCH
HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM THURSDAY TO 11 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR NYZ006>008.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ001>005-010>014-019>021-085.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     NYZ001>005-010>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...TJP
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...JJR
HYDROLOGY...WOOD/THOMAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1251 PM EDT WED APR 10 2013

NYZ001>005-010>014-019>021-085-111700-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-
WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
SOUTHERN ERIE-
1251 PM EDT WED APR 10 2013

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...
...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM EDT
THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.
   FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.
   FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-111700-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
1251 PM EDT WED APR 10 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
ONTARIO AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ006>008-111700-
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
1251 PM EDT WED APR 10 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM THURSDAY TO 11 AM EDT
FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

THOMAS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
238 PM EDT WED APR 10 2013

NYZ012-085-102030-
WYOMING-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
238 PM EDT WED APR 10 2013

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTY...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR COLDEN AT 230 PM WILL MOVE EAST AROUND
45 MPH. PEA TO NICKLE SIZED HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH THIS STORM. IN ADDITION...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS STORM AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH WALES
CENTER...VARYSBURG AND WARSAW THROUGH 315 PM.

A SECOND STRONG STORM...JUST WEST OF EDEN...WILL MOVE EAST
AND IMPACT NORTH BOSTON AND COLDEN THROUGH 330 PM. EXPECT SMALL
HAIL OF PEA TO HALF INCH...GUSTY WINDS OF 45 MPH AND BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH THIS STORM.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
317 PM EDT WED APR 10 2013

NYZ001-010-085-102015-
ERIE NY-NIAGARA NY-
317 PM EDT WED APR 10 2013

...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE AREA...

* AT 311 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...AND
  HEAVY RAIN.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
  FROM YOUNGSTOWN TO NIAGARA FALLS TO 17 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GRAND
  ISLAND...AND MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCLUDE...
  TONAWANDA AND NORTH TONAWANDA...
  KENMORE AND BUFFALO...
  AMHERST AND WILLIAMSVILLE...
  LANCASTER...
  EAST AURORA...

LAT...LON 4313 7906 4327 7907 4329 7894 4333 7883
      4334 7846 4274 7854 4279 7886 4281 7888
      4294 7892 4295 7897 4299 7903 4306 7901
      4307 7908