Alert archive / New York / Small Craft Advisories in 2013
Small Craft Advisory 67, NWS Buffalo, NY
NWS Buffalo, NY issued this small craft advisory at Jul 18, 2013, 4:39 PM EDT. It took effect at Jul 19, 2013, 10:00 AM EDT. It was in force for 30 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 18, 2013, 4:39 PM EDT (20:39 UTC)
- In effect from
- Jul 19, 2013, 10:00 AM EDT
- Expired
- Jul 20, 2013, 3:59 PM EDT
- In force
- 30 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Buffalo, NY
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
159 WHUS71 KBUF 182039 MWWBUF URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 439 PM EDT THU JUL 18 2013 LEZ040-041-190445- /O.NEW.KBUF.SC.Y.0067.130719T1400Z-130720T1400Z/ LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK- LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO- 439 PM EDT THU JUL 18 2013 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY. * WINDS...SOUTHWEST INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS. * WAVES...BUILDING TO 3 TO 6 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LEZ020-LOZ030-190445- /O.NEW.KBUF.SC.Y.0067.130719T1400Z-130720T0800Z/ UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-LOWER NIAGARA RIVER- 439 PM EDT THU JUL 18 2013 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM EDT SATURDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM EDT SATURDAY. * WINDS...SOUTHWEST INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LOZ042-043-190445- /O.NEW.KBUF.SC.Y.0067.130719T1600Z-130720T0800Z/ LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY- 439 PM EDT THU JUL 18 2013 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 4 AM EDT SATURDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 4 AM EDT SATURDAY. * WINDS...SOUTHWEST INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS. * WAVES...BUILDING TO 3 TO 6 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LOZ044-045-190445- /O.NEW.KBUF.SC.Y.0067.130719T1600Z-130720T1400Z/ LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER- 439 PM EDT THU JUL 18 2013 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY. * WINDS...SOUTHWEST INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS. * WAVES...BUILDING TO 4 TO 7 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ SLZ022-024-190445- /O.NEW.KBUF.SC.Y.0067.130719T1400Z-130720T0300Z/ SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG- SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS- 439 PM EDT THU JUL 18 2013 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 11 PM EDT FRIDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 11 PM EDT FRIDAY. * WINDS...SOUTHWEST INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$
9 follow-up statements
350 WHUS71 KBUF 190802 MWWBUF URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 402 AM EDT FRI JUL 19 2013 LEZ040-041-191615- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0067.130719T1400Z-130720T1400Z/ LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK- LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO- 402 AM EDT FRI JUL 19 2013 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS. * WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LEZ020-LOZ030-191615- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0067.130719T1400Z-130720T0800Z/ UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-LOWER NIAGARA RIVER- 402 AM EDT FRI JUL 19 2013 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT SATURDAY... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LOZ042-043-191615- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0067.130719T1600Z-130720T0800Z/ LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY- 402 AM EDT FRI JUL 19 2013 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 AM EDT SATURDAY... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS. * WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LOZ044-045-191615- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0067.130719T1600Z-130720T1400Z/ LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER- 402 AM EDT FRI JUL 19 2013 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS. * WAVES...3 TO 6 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ SLZ022-024-191615- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0067.130719T1400Z-130720T0300Z/ SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG- SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS- 402 AM EDT FRI JUL 19 2013 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ THOMAS
378 WHUS71 KBUF 191443 MWWBUF URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1043 AM EDT FRI JUL 19 2013 LEZ040-041-192245- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0067.000000T0000Z-130720T1400Z/ LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK- LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO- 1043 AM EDT FRI JUL 19 2013 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT SATURDAY... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 KNOTS. * WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LEZ020-LOZ030-192245- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0067.000000T0000Z-130720T0800Z/ UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-LOWER NIAGARA RIVER- 1043 AM EDT FRI JUL 19 2013 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT SATURDAY... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LOZ042-043-192245- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0067.130719T1600Z-130720T0800Z/ LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY- 1043 AM EDT FRI JUL 19 2013 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT SATURDAY... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS. * WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LOZ044-045-192245- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0067.130719T1600Z-130720T1400Z/ LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER- 1043 AM EDT FRI JUL 19 2013 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT SATURDAY... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS. * WAVES...3 TO 6 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ SLZ022-024-192245- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0067.000000T0000Z-130720T0300Z/ SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG- SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS- 1043 AM EDT FRI JUL 19 2013 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 KNOTS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$
429 WHUS71 KBUF 192036 MWWBUF URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 436 PM EDT FRI JUL 19 2013 LEZ040-041-200445- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0067.000000T0000Z-130720T1400Z/ LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK- LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO- 436 PM EDT FRI JUL 19 2013 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT SATURDAY... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 KNOTS. * WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LEZ020-LOZ030-200445- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0067.000000T0000Z-130720T0800Z/ UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-LOWER NIAGARA RIVER- 436 PM EDT FRI JUL 19 2013 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT SATURDAY... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LOZ042-043-200445- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0067.000000T0000Z-130720T0800Z/ LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY- 436 PM EDT FRI JUL 19 2013 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT SATURDAY... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS. * WAVES...3 TO 4 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LOZ044-045-200445- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0067.000000T0000Z-130720T1400Z/ LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER- 436 PM EDT FRI JUL 19 2013 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT SATURDAY... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS. * WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ SLZ022-024-200300- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0067.000000T0000Z-130720T0300Z/ SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG- SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS- 436 PM EDT FRI JUL 19 2013 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST TO 30 KNOTS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ RSH
729 WHUS71 KBUF 200532 MWWBUF URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 132 AM EDT SAT JUL 20 2013 LEZ040-041-201345- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0067.000000T0000Z-130720T1400Z/ LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK- LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO- 132 AM EDT SAT JUL 20 2013 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS. * WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LEZ020-LOZ030-200800- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0067.000000T0000Z-130720T0800Z/ UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-LOWER NIAGARA RIVER- 132 AM EDT SAT JUL 20 2013 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LOZ042-043-200800- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0067.000000T0000Z-130720T0800Z/ LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY- 132 AM EDT SAT JUL 20 2013 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS. * WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LOZ044-045-201345- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0067.000000T0000Z-130720T1400Z/ LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER- 132 AM EDT SAT JUL 20 2013 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS. * WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ THOMAS
828 WHUS71 KBUF 200849 MWWBUF URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 449 AM EDT SAT JUL 20 2013 LEZ020-201700- /O.NEW.KBUF.SC.Y.0068.130720T0849Z-130720T2000Z/ UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR- 449 AM EDT SAT JUL 20 2013 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON. * WINDS...WEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LEZ040-041-201700- /O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0067.000000T0000Z-130720T2000Z/ LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK- LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO- 449 AM EDT SAT JUL 20 2013 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON... * WINDS...WEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS. * WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LOZ044-045-201700- /O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0067.000000T0000Z-130720T2000Z/ LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER- 449 AM EDT SAT JUL 20 2013 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON... * WINDS...WEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS. * WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$
428 WHUS71 KBUF 201147 MWWBUF URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 747 AM EDT SAT JUL 20 2013 LEZ040-041-202000- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0067.000000T0000Z-130720T2000Z/ LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK- LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO- 747 AM EDT SAT JUL 20 2013 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON... * WINDS...WEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS. * WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LEZ020-202000- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0068.000000T0000Z-130720T2000Z/ UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR- 747 AM EDT SAT JUL 20 2013 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON... * WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 KNOTS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LOZ044-045-202000- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0067.000000T0000Z-130720T2000Z/ LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER- 747 AM EDT SAT JUL 20 2013 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON... * WINDS...WEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS. * WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$
846 WHUS71 KBUF 201442 MWWBUF URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1042 AM EDT SAT JUL 20 2013 LEZ040-041-202000- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0067.000000T0000Z-130720T2000Z/ LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK- LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO- 1042 AM EDT SAT JUL 20 2013 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON... * WINDS...WEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS. * WAVES...2 TO 4 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LEZ020-202000- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0068.000000T0000Z-130720T2000Z/ UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR- 1042 AM EDT SAT JUL 20 2013 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON... * WINDS...WEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LOZ044-045-202000- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0067.000000T0000Z-130720T2000Z/ LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER- 1042 AM EDT SAT JUL 20 2013 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON... * WINDS...WEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS. * WAVES...2 TO 4 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$
400 WHUS71 KBUF 201737 MWWBUF URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 137 PM EDT SAT JUL 20 2013 LEZ020-201845- /O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0068.000000T0000Z-130720T2000Z/ UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR- 137 PM EDT SAT JUL 20 2013 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. $$ LOZ044-045-210145- /O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0067.000000T0000Z-130721T0200Z/ LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER- 137 PM EDT SAT JUL 20 2013 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING... * WINDS...WEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS. * WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LEZ040-041-202000- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0067.000000T0000Z-130720T2000Z/ LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK- LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO- 137 PM EDT SAT JUL 20 2013 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON... * WINDS...WEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS. * WAVES...2 TO 4 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$
997 WHUS71 KBUF 201959 MWWBUF URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 359 PM EDT SAT JUL 20 2013 LEZ040-041-202100- /O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0067.000000T0000Z-130720T2000Z/ LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK- LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO- 359 PM EDT SAT JUL 20 2013 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. $$ LOZ044-045-202100- /O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0067.000000T0000Z-130721T0200Z/ LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER- 359 PM EDT SAT JUL 20 2013 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this small craft advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Jul 18, 4:03 PM EDT, 36 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 18, 4:03 PM EDT, 36 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
403 PM EDT THU JUL 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE CAROLINAS WILL
MAINTAIN HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BLOSSOM EACH AFTERNOON AWAY FROM ANY LAKE
INFLUENCES...WITH AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO POSSIBLY PRODUCING SOME
GUSTY WINDS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING A GREATER
RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH
MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS FINALLY RETURNING BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF MID AFTERNOON...HEAT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING AS OUTLINED BELOW...GIVEN CONTINUED SURFACE TEMPS/
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 80S-LOWER 90S AND LOWER-MID 70S RESPECTIVELY.
WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THE
FIRST BATCH OF LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY AND TERRAIN-DRIVEN CONVECTION IS
NOW IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING OUR SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY. TO THE
WEST OF THIS...SOME ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO POP AND SLIDE EASTWARD ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE
CONVERGENCE ZONE NORTH OF BUFFALO...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME LAKE
CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD EXPANSION FROM LAKE ERIE...WITH MORE STABLE
AIR NOW HAVING OVERRUN ALL OF ERIE AND CHAUTAUQUA COUNTIES...AND
PORTIONS OF CATTARAUGUS COUNTY. THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION TO
PERSIST ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONES...WHILE
DRY CONDITIONS SPREAD EASTWARD WITHIN THE EXPANDING LAKE ERIE LAKE
SHADOW. ALL OF THIS WILL THEN WIND DOWN THROUGH MID EVENING WITH
DIMINISHING HEATING...AND SHOULD LIKELY END ALTOGETHER BY 9 OR 10 PM.
MEANWHILE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MAY TURN OUT TO BE A BIT GREATER THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING AS THIS REGION LIES CLOSER TO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO
OUR NORTH...AND THEREFORE WILL BE SUBJECT TO THE ADDITIONAL
INFLUENCE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSE/MCV CURRENTLY PUSHING EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO. THIS FEATURE SHOULD HELP CONTINUE TO KEY
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS IT SLIDES ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...WHERE SOME LIKELY POPS WILL BE IN PLAY
THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID EVENING HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...THIS
ACTIVITY WILL ALSO DIMINISH WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE/MCV
AND THE LOSS OF HEATING...EVENTUALLY ENDING ALTOGETHER BY LATE THIS
EVENING.
IN TERMS OF SEVERE POTENTIAL...SPC CONTINUES TO HAVE MUCH OF THE
AREA WITHIN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...HOWEVER FEEL THE BEST CHANCES OF THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY/SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...WHICH WILL SEE THE BEST
OVERALL /ALBEIT WEAK/ SYNOPTIC FORCING AND BEST OVERALL COMBINATION
OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR GIVEN THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT FOUND ACROSS THIS
REGION. FURTHER SOUTH...WHILE AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN SBCAPES STILL IN THE 2500-3500 J/KG
RANGE...FEEL THAT THE WEAKER SHEAR AND THE LACK OF A REAL SYNOPTIC
TRIGGER WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP BOTH STORM COVERAGE AND STRENGTH MORE
LIMITED...JUST AS HAS LARGELY BEEN EXPERIENCED BOTH YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON AND THIS AFTERNOON. IF ANY SEVERE STORMS DO OCCUR...THE
MAIN THREAT WOULD BE FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS...WITH LARGE HAIL
SUBSTANTIALLY LESS LIKELY GIVEN THE TROPICAL NATURE OF THE LARGE
SCALE ENVIRONMENT.
ONCE ANY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION ENDS THIS EVENING...EXPECT A
GENERALLY DRY SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT...THOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR STORM CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT GIVEN THE TROPICAL AIRMASS THAT
WILL STILL BE IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE LINGERING
BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR NORTH. WITH A SOMEWHAT STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...
EXPECT TONIGHT TO BE THE MOST UNCOMFORTABLE OF THE CURRENT STRETCH
WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...AND THE
IMMEDIATE LAKE PLAINS OF FAR WESTERN NEW YORK PROBABLY NOT MAKING IT
BELOW THE UPPER 70S. IN ADDITION...THE SOMEWHAT STRONGER FLOW SHOULD
ALSO ACT TO LARGELY INHIBIT FOG FORMATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
VALLEYS.
ON FRIDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS OUR REGION
IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE SLOWLY EASING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS ONTARIO PROVINCE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOP BY MID-LATE MORNING...THEN PERSISTING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AT THIS POINT...EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS
TO SEE SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO THE 15-30 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO
40 MPH...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS FOUND DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE WHERE
FUNNELING EFFECTS AND THE PRESENCE OF A 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD
LEAD TO SOME NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL /45 MPH/ GUSTS...WITH GUSTS TO 50
MPH NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. WILL NOT HOIST A WIND ADVISORY
JUST YET...BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED BY FUTURE SHIFTS IF
THE EXPECTED WINDS GET ANY STRONGER.
WITH STRONG MIXING RESULTING FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS...AND 850
MB TEMPS REMAINING AROUND +19C...EXPECT MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES TO SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 90S FRIDAY. COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS LINGERING IN THE LOWER
70S...THIS WILL AGAIN LIKELY LEAD TO HEAT INDICES EXCEEDING 100F
FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER EASTWARD ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES TO OSWEGO
COUNTY. GIVEN THAT WE ALREADY HAVE A HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FOR NOW HAVE ELECTED TO HOLD OFF ON
ISSUING AN ADDITIONAL ADVISORY FOR TOMORROW SOLELY IN AN ATTEMPT TO
AVOID ANY CONFUSION RESULTING FROM A DOUBLE HEADLINE...THOUGH EXPECT
THAT ONE WILL LIKELY BECOME NECESSARY LATER ON THIS EVENING OR
OVERNIGHT.
WITH RESPECT TO THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON FRIDAY...THE
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN THE BULK OF OUR AREA
BECOMING SHADOWED TO CONVECTION FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF TOMORROW...
SAVE FOR MAYBE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER/FINGER
LAKES AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE SOME
LOWER-END CHANCE POPS WILL BE IN PLAY. VERY LATE IN THE DAY...
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY BEGIN TO
EDGE INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY/FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY AND NIAGARA FRONTIER...HOWEVER THE BULK OF THIS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN OUT OF OUR AREA UNTIL LATER FRIDAY EVENING. FOR MORE
DETAILS ON THAT...PLEASE SEE THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN FOCUS WILL BE AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM AS A SEASONABLY
STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...FORCING
A FRONTAL ZONE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA IN TWO
SEGMENTS...WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH CROSSING THE LOWER LAKES LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE...IT APPEARS THE BULK
OF THE CONVECTION AND SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.
DECENT DYNAMICS COMING TOGETHER WITH A 120+ KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET
OVER QUEBEC...PLACING THE LOWER LAKES IN THE FAVORED RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION FOR ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THE STRONGER MID LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS AND DPVA WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER...BUT A FEW WEAKER CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED SHORTWAVES ARE
LIKELY TO RIPPLE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE IN THE WARM SECTOR LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S AND PWAT VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES.
GIVEN THE QUALITY OF FORCING AND DYNAMICS COMING TOGETHER...HAVE
CONTINUED WITH HIGH LIKELY POPS ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
AS FAR AS SEVERE POTENTIAL GOES...NORMALLY CONVECTION ARRIVING
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WOULD NOT BE FAVORABLE GIVEN THE TIME OF
DAY WITH RESPECT TO THE DIURNAL CYCLE. INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE AS
GREAT AS DURING THE DAY OR EVENING...BUT STILL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST SBCAPE REMAINING ABOVE 1000J/KG WITH LITTLE CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION. SHEAR WILL IMPROVE WITH TIME AS A BELT OF 30-40 KNOT LOW
LEVEL FLOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED MULTICELLS AND POSSIBLY SHORT
LINE SEGMENTS DEPENDING ON STORM SCALE STRUCTURE WITH AN ASSOCIATED
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER...PRIMARILY WIND DAMAGE. THAT SAID...
GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING STILL EXPECT THE BETTER SEVERE
RISK TO BE TO OUR NORTH AND WEST FRIDAY EVENING...THEN TO OUR SOUTH
AND EAST SATURDAY.
ON SATURDAY EXPECT THE FIRST BATCH OF CONVECTION ALONG THE
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH TO END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE
MORNING. THIS SHOULD LEAVE A SIZABLE BREAK WITH EVEN SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING FOR A PORTION OF THE DAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB
BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ALONG WITH MORE HUMIDITY. LATE IN THE
DAY THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION. THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE
ABLE TO RECOVER ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AT LEAST MODEST INSTABILITY JUST
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS. COVERAGE SHOULD BE A LITTLE LESS WITH THIS SECOND
ROUND...AND SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE LOWER WITH LESS INSTABILITY AND
LESS DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING WITH ANY
SCATTERED CONVECTION ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SET THE STAGE
FOR A VERY NICE SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS WILL PROVIDE LOW HUMIDITY AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S ALONG WITH SUNSHINE.
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COOLEST NIGHT IN RECENT MEMORY WITH UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE LAKE PLAINS AND EVEN SOME LOWER 50S IN THE
COOLER SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND TUG HILL REGION UNDER MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BY MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...
ALLOWING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO BEGIN. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE A
LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING A PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND
PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS INTO EASTERN PA AND NY...BUT IT STILL APPEARS
THIS WILL REMAIN MAINLY TO OUR EAST. HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY
FORECAST FOR MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO VERY CLOSE TO
AVERAGE.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY A BROAD TROUGH WILL SLOWLY EVOLVE IN THE
GREAT LAKES. NUMEROUS SHORTWAVE FEATURES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE
DEVELOPING TROUGH...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS OUT OF PHASE WITH
RESPECT TO TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THESE FEATURES. AT THIS POINT
HAVE JUST BLANKETED THE PERIOD WITH LOW CHANCE POPS UNTIL BETTER
MODEL AGREEMENT ALLOWS FOR MORE REFINED TIMING. TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE AND HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE...BUT
BOTH WILL REMAIN BELOW THE LEVELS OF THIS WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY. SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...THE BULK OF THESE WILL FORM
ALONG LAKE BREEZE AND TERRAIN-DRIVEN CONVERGENCE ZONES AND WILL
LIKELY REMAIN LIMITED IN COVERAGE GIVEN THE LACK OF A REAL SYNOPTIC
TRIGGER...WHILE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AND SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY MAY SEE A SOMEWHAT GREATER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
DEVELOP AS A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE/MCV APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE OVERALL LIMITED EXPECTED COVERAGE...FOR NOW HAVE GENERALLY
JUST RETAINED A MENTION OF VCSH/VCTS IN THE TAFS WHERE
APPROPRIATE...WITH THE CAVEAT THAT ANY CONVECTION WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BRIEF LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS TO IFR/MVFR. OUTSIDE
OF THIS...GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE GENERAL
RULE.
TONIGHT...WE SHOULD SEE THE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY COME TO AN END THIS EVENING WITH DIMINISHING HEATING...
LEAVING BEHIND VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE NIGHT.
OVERNIGHT...SOME LOWER VFR/MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN HAZE/VERY
LIGHT FOG GIVEN THE TROPICAL NATURE OF OUR AIRMASS...THOUGH WITH A
LITTLE STRONGER GRADIENT IN PLACE DO NOT EXPECT ANY FOG TO DEVELOP
THIS TIME AROUND.
ON FRIDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS ONTARIO PROVINCE...
WHICH WILL RESULT IN RATHER BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING...THEN CONTINUING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15-25
KTS WITH GUSTS TO AS HIGH AS 35-40 KTS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS MOST LIKELY DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE FROM KBUF/KIAG OVER TO KROC.
WITH THE DEVELOPING STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...LAKE SHADOWS WILL
QUICKLY DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TOMORROW...
THEREBY LIMITING ANY POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO FAR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER/FINGER LAKES AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY. VERY LATE IN THE
DAY...CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY
BEGIN TO EDGE INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY/FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AND NIAGARA FRONTIER...HOWEVER THE BULK OF THIS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN OUT OF OUR AREA UNTIL LATER FRIDAY EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
LIKELY WITH ASSOCIATED IFR/MVFR...WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
OTHERWISE.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS WILL REMAIN RIDGED FROM THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY TO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A WEAK TO MODEST WEST
TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WAVES OF ROUGHLY 2 FEET OR LESS CONTINUING
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THAT TIME. AFTER THAT...THE APPROACH OF A
COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MUCH STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW...WITH WINDS AND WAVES BUILDING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
ON FRIDAY...THEN LINGERING AT THESE LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
EARLY SATURDAY. FOR THIS REASON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE
HOISTED FOR ALL NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO...AS WELL
AS THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.
OTHERWISE...AFTER THE PASSAGE OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION
ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS EVENING...DRY CONDITIONS WILL
ALSO GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY. GREATER
AND MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL THEN ARRIVE
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY
ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER TO
POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND HIGHER
WAVES.
&&
.CLIMATE...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE EXTREME OR RECORD BREAKING. RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY THIS WEEK ARE LIKELY OUT OF REACH FOR BUFFALO
AND ROCHESTER. RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURES ARE MOSTLY IN THE MID
70S...AND A FEW NIGHTS MIGHT GET CLOSE TO THOSE RECORDS.
WATERTOWN HAS A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE AT BREAKING A FEW RECORDS THIS
WEEK...BUT THIS IS PRIMARILY DUE TO THE MUCH SHORTER PERIOD OF
RECORD THERE...GOING BACK 65 YEARS TO MAY OF 1949. RECORDS AT
BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER BOTH GO BACK 143 YEARS TO 1871.
HERE ARE THE RECORDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
BUFFALO..
DATE RECORD HIGH RECORD WARM LOW
THU 7/18 94 76
FRI 7/19 92 75
ROCHESTER...
DATE RECORD HIGH RECORD WARM LOW
THU 7/18 97 76
FRI 7/19 95 75
WATERTOWN...
DATE RECORD HIGH RECORD WARM LOW
THU 7/18 97 72
FRI 7/19 92 72
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ001>006-010-
011-013-014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM EDT SATURDAY
FOR LEZ020.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 10 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR LOZ030.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 4 AM EDT SATURDAY
FOR LOZ042-043.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 10 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR LOZ044-045.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 11 PM EDT FRIDAY
FOR SLZ022-024.
&&
SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR
CLIMATE...HITCHCOCK/JJRHazardous weather outlook, Jul 18, 10:36 AM EDT, 6 hours 3 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1036 AM EDT THU JUL 18 2013 NYZ001>006-011-013-014-191445- NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-GENESEE- LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO- 1036 AM EDT THU JUL 18 2013 ...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. HEAT ADVISORY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE STRESSFUL HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 90S...AND POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 100 TO 104 THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AWAY FROM THE LAKE SHORES. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NEW YORK FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND MAY BRING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN THAT MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING IN POORLY DRAINED LOW LYING AREAS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAYBE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF NYZ007-008-012-019>021-085-191445- JEFFERSON-LEWIS-WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY- SOUTHERN ERIE- 1036 AM EDT THU JUL 18 2013 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AWAY FROM THE LAKE SHORES. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NEW YORK FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND MAY BRING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN THAT MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING IN POORLY DRAINED LOW LYING AREAS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAYBE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF NYZ010-191445- NORTHERN ERIE- 1036 AM EDT THU JUL 18 2013 ...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. HEAT ADVISORY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AWAY FROM THE LAKE SHORES. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NEW YORK FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND MAY BRING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN THAT MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING IN POORLY DRAINED LOW LYING AREAS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAYBE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF LEZ020-040-041-LOZ042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-191445- UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR- LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK- LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER- LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH- LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY- LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY- LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER- SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG- SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS- 1036 AM EDT THU JUL 18 2013 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE ONTARIO AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING GUSTY WINDS RESULTING IN LOCALLY HIGHER WAVES. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WHICH MAY BRING A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WINDS ALONG WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WAVES. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAYBE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jul 18, 12:30 PM EDT, 4 hours 9 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1230 PM EDT THU JUL 18 2013 NYZ004-014-181730- ONTARIO NY-WAYNE NY- 1230 PM EDT THU JUL 18 2013 ...STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING... * AT 1228 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR PALMYRA...AND MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH. THIS STORM MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. * SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM MAY INCLUDE... PALMYRA AND MANCHESTER... CLIFTON SPRINGS... NEWARK... LYONS... THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS. LAT...LON 4299 7737 4316 7736 4318 7698 4292 7696 HITCHCOCK
Special weather statement, Jul 18, 12:43 PM EDT, 3 hours 56 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1243 PM EDT THU JUL 18 2013
NYZ013-014-181745-
LIVINGSTON NY-ONTARIO NY-
1243 PM EDT THU JUL 18 2013
...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO THE AREA...
* AT 1242 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HEMLOCK...AND
MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. THIS STORM MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL...AND SMALL HAIL.
* SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM MAY INCLUDE...
CANADICE...
HONEOYE...
BRISTOL...
BRISTOL MOUNTAIN...
COTTAGE CITY...
THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.
LAT...LON 4277 7771 4287 7767 4287 7709 4276 7712
4275 7728 4276 7731 4273 7734 4268 7734
4267 7736
HITCHCOCKSpecial weather statement, Jul 18, 2:05 PM EDT, 2 hours 34 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
205 PM EDT THU JUL 18 2013
NYZ003-004-181900-
MONROE NY-WAYNE NY-
205 PM EDT THU JUL 18 2013
...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO THE AREA...
* AT 200 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...STRONG GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR ROCHESTER...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.
* SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM MAY INCLUDE...
EAST ROCHESTER...
WEBSTER AND FAIRPORT...
IRONDEQUOIT BAY...
THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE
INDOORS IMMEDIATELY!
IF ON OR NEAR IRONDEQUOIT BAY...SEEK SHELTER NOW. GET OUT OF THE WATER
AND MOVE INDOORS OR INSIDE A VEHICLE.
LAT...LON 4313 7776 4331 7774 4331 7768 4324 7755
4329 7735 4328 7726 4330 7709 4328 7700
4328 7694 4330 7691 4330 7681 4303 7684
JAMSpecial weather statement, Jul 18, 2:26 PM EDT, 2 hours 13 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
226 PM EDT THU JUL 18 2013
NYZ020-021-181930-
ALLEGANY NY-CATTARAUGUS NY-
226 PM EDT THU JUL 18 2013
...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO THE AREA...
* AT 223 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DIME SIZED HAIL...STRONG
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CUBA...AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.
* SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM MAY INCLUDE...
WELLSVILLE...
THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE
INDOORS IMMEDIATELY!
LAT...LON 4206 7836 4224 7833 4222 7773 4200 7774
4199 7775 4199 7788
JAMLocal storm report, Jul 18, 3:36 PM EDT, 1 hour 3 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
336 PM EDT THU JUL 18 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0200 PM TSTM WND DMG GREECE 43.21N 77.70W
07/18/2013 MONROE NY FIRE DEPT/RESCUE
NUMEROUS TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN
&&
EVENT NUMBER BUF1300232
HITCHCOCKSpecial weather statement, Jul 18, 4:23 PM EDT, 16 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
423 PM EDT THU JUL 18 2013
NYZ007-008-182130-
JEFFERSON NY-LEWIS NY-
423 PM EDT THU JUL 18 2013
...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO THE AREA...
* AT 422 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...AND VERY
HEAVY RAIN. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 33 MILES NORTHWEST OF INDIAN
RIVER...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.
* SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM MAY INCLUDE...
THERESA...
PHILADELPHIA...
ANTWERP...
NATURAL BRIDGE...
HARRISVILLE...
THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.
LAT...LON 4427 7553 4410 7517 4391 7530 4422 7606
4435 7598 4437 7592
TJPThe office that day
Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 18, 10:30 AM EDT | Heat Advisory | BUF | Cayuga, Erie, Genesee, Livingston, Monroe, Niagara and 4 more | 10 hr |
| Jul 18, 12:30 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | BUF | Wayne | 60 min |
| Jul 18, 12:43 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | BUF | Ontario | 62 min |
| Jul 18, 2:05 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | BUF | Monroe, Wayne | 55 min |
| Jul 18, 2:19 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | BUF | Wayne | 3 hr |
| Jul 18, 2:26 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | BUF | Allegany | 64 min |
| Jul 18, 2:28 PM EDT | Special Marine Warning | BUF | 2 hr | |
| Jul 18, 3:13 PM EDT | Special Marine Warning | BUF | 92 min | |
| Jul 18, 4:23 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | BUF | Jefferson | 67 min |
Nearby
Small Craft Advisories in New York, 2013Every small craft advisory in 2013
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.