High Wind Watch 1, NWS Brownsville, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1155 AM CST SUN FEB 24 2013

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VSBL SATL AND SURFACE OBS FROM AROUND THE REGION
INDICATES THAT THE RETURNING SE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS KEEPING FAIRLY
CEILINGS IN THE 1500 TO 2000 FT RANGE AROUND THE LOWER RGV THIS
AFTERNOON. THE INCREASING DAYTIME HEATING WILL MIX OUT THE LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMS ALLOWING FOR THE CEILINGS TO IMPROVE SOME
THROUGH SUNSET. HOWEVER THE GFS AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS LATER
TONIGHT INDICATE THAT A FAIRLY SATURATED NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL
INVERSION WILL REFORM PRETTY QUICKLY ALLOWING FOR THE CEILINGS TO
LOWER PRETTY QUICKLY LATER TONIGHT THROUGH 12Z MON CREATING
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL OF THE RGV AIRPORTS. THE COLD FRONT TO
OUR NW WILL PUSH THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TX AND THE LOWER RGV PRETTY
QUICKLY TOMORROW MORNING ALLOWING FOR MUCH DRIER AIR TO QUICKLY
FILTER INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD ERODING OUT ANY LOW
LEVEL CLD COVER ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF
TOMORROW. IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...THE INCREASING NW FLOW WILL
RESULT IN PRETTY GUSTY CONDITIONS TOMORROW WHICH WILL BE THE
BIGGEST AVIATION HAZARD AFTER THE LOW CLDS ERODE AWAY. THIS MAY
REQUIRE AN AWW FOR THE BRO AIRPORT DUE TO THE STRONG AND GUSTY NW
SURFACE FLOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 529 AM CST SUN FEB 24 2013/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...NORTHEAST FLOW MOVED GULF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA
DEVELOPING DENSE FOG OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 15Z ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
WITH THE LOWER VALLEY STARTING TO LOWER AT THIS TIME. THIS
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY 15Z THIS MORNING. EXPECT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW TO PREVAIL THROUGH OUT THE DAY WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE DAY BUT
WITH THE SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE GULF WATERS...THE FOG WILL
REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST AND SPREAD TOWARDS KMFE TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CST SUN FEB 24 2013/

.VERY STRONG WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY MONDAY...
.CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY...

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
NORTHEAST TEXAS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TODAY ALLOWING A MORE
EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW INTO THE LOWER VALLEY. LIGHT BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON
WILL INCREASE MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE AREA BUT IT WILL REMAIN VERY
SHALLOW ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
THE MID TO LOW 80S TODAY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA AND
INTO THE MID 70S ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT ONCE AGAIN FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY DEVELOPING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. LATEST 00Z GFS/ECMWF 850 MB WINDS PROG BETWEEN
45KT TO 55KT OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA INCREASING INTO
THE 50KT RANGE TO THE SOUTH. DRY AIR WILL SURGE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
ALLOWING FOR STRONG MIXING ACROSS THE VALLEY THROUGH OUT THE DAY
MONDAY. EXPECT WINDS BETWEEN 25 TO 35 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE WITH
GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS OR HIGHER AT TIMES MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS
A WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR MONDAY AT THIS TIME. IN
ADDITION...DRY AIR WILL KEEP HUMIDITY VALUES VERY LOW THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 70S MONDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE VERY LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS MOST OF THE
DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE NE.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST MONDAY EVENING BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEGINS TO RELAX ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. THE DRIER AIR ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY WILL PROVIDE COOLER TEMPERATURES MON NIGHT WITH
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE DRIER AIR ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY WILL BE
REINFORCED WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE CWA IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE
SURFACE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL BEGIN
TO SHIFT EAST TODAY ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FEET TODAY. EXPECT
SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KNOTS
AND BUILDING SEAS BETWEEN 3 TO 4 FEET. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO CHANGE
INTO MONDAY AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS ALLOWING GALE FORCE GUSTS TO DEVELOP BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE BETWEEN 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS PEAKING IN
THE AFTERNOON MONDAY. SEAS WILL REACT QUICKLY TO THIS STRONG WINDS
BUILDING BETWEEN 4 TO 6 IN THE EARLY MORNING AND 8 TO 10 FEET BY
THE EVENING. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST...THE STRONG WINDS WILL
SHIFT INTO THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS MON NIGHT BEFORE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES...IF NOT GALE WARNINGS...WILL BE NEEDED MON NIGHT
BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED TUESDAY FOR HIGH SEAS OFFSHORE. LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTH WINDS TUESDAY SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TUES
NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE THE LOWER TX COAST
WED AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL DIMINISH THURS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

FIRE WEATHER /MONDAY/...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE MONDAY AS A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST STRENGTHENING THE SURFACE
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTH TX MONDAY. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW VERY
WINDY CONDITIONS STARTING EARLY 15Z MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
MOVES SOUTHWARD. NO WETTING PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AS MOST OF THE
MOISTURE GETS PUSHED TOWARDS NORTHEAST TEXAS. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL
RANGE BETWEEN 6 TO 15 PERCENT WHICH IS VERY LOW AND THE LAST FEW
MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT AND CONTINUE TO LOWER THE MIN RH VALUES.
THE STRONG WINDS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM PLUS THE LOW MIN RH VALUES
WILL ENHANCE WILDFIRE GROWTH IN AN INSTANT. DUE TO STRONG WINDS
AND THE CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE MODELS THE LAST FEW RUNS...HAVE
ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR CONDITIONS ON MONDAY THROUGH 02Z
ACROSS THE CWA. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AND
WINDS LOWER IN THE EVENING. RH RECOVERIES WILL BE FAIR TO POOR
WITH VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE WITH THE LOWEST
VALUES TO THE WEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  75  62  75  46 /  10  10  10   0
BROWNSVILLE          78  63  76  47 /  10  10  10   0
HARLINGEN            81  60  77  46 /  10  10  10   0
MCALLEN              81  62  79  44 /  10  10  10   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      82  60  79  45 /   0  10  10   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   71  63  74  51 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM CST MONDAY FOR TXZ248>257.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM CST MONDAY FOR TXZ248>257.

GM...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR GMZ150-
     155-170-175.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...55
GRAPHICAST/UPPER AIR...MARTINEZ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
431 AM CST SUN FEB 24 2013

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-251045-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TX-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
431 AM CST SUN FEB 24 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
LAGUNA MADRE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECT AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS ON MONDAY. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND
POSSIBLY ON FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

TXZ248>257-251045-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
431 AM CST SUN FEB 24 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. THERE IS A WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT AND A RED FLAG WARNING
IN EFFECT MONDAY. THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE
BEACHES OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND AND AT BOCA CHICA BEACH MONDAY AND
POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.