Flash Flood Watch 1, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

569 
WGUS61 KBOX 240511
FFABOX

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
111 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

...FLASH FLOOD RISK FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY...

.LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE HEADED FOR RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST
MASSACHUSETTS. THUS...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED
EASTWARD. LOCALIZED RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITHIN A COUPLE OF
HOURS IS POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA...AND LEADS TO SPECIAL CONCERN
FOR URBAN AREAS IN RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST
MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING PROVIDENCE AND BOSTON.

MAZ013-015>021-RIZ001>007-241315-
/O.EXA.KBOX.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-130524T1600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-
NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-
SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-EASTERN KENT RI-
BRISTOL RI-WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FOXBORO...NORWOOD...BOSTON...QUINCY...
TAUNTON...BROCKTON...PLYMOUTH...FALL RIVER...NEW BEDFORD...
MATTAPOISETT...FOSTER...SMITHFIELD...PROVIDENCE...
WEST GREENWICH...WARWICK...BRISTOL...NARRAGANSETT...WESTERLY...
NEWPORT
111 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS EXPANDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF MASSACHUSETTS AND 
  RHODE ISLAND...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN 
  MASSACHUSETTS...EASTERN NORFOLK MA...EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA... 
  NORTHERN BRISTOL MA...SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA...SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH 
  MA...SUFFOLK MA...WESTERN NORFOLK MA AND WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA. 
  IN RHODE ISLAND...BRISTOL RI...EASTERN KENT RI...NEWPORT RI... 
  NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI...SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI...WASHINGTON 
  RI AND WESTERN KENT RI. 

* UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY

* PERSISTENT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO
  FRIDAY MORNING. SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY DEPICT A LONG BAND
  OF HEAVY RAIN MOVING TOWARD RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST
  MASSACHUSETTS. THUS...HAVE EXPANDED THE WATCH INTO THESE AREAS.
  HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...PARTICULARLY
  WITHIN STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS...COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING.

* THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR URBAN AREAS AND SMALLER 
  TRIBUTARIES...STREAMS AND CREEKS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>004-008>012-026-NHZ011-015-241315-
/O.CON.KBOX.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-130524T1600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-
EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-
SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-CHESHIRE NH-
WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARTFORD...WINDSOR LOCKS...UNION...
VERNON...PUTNAM...WILLIMANTIC...CHARLEMONT...GREENFIELD...
ORANGE...BARRE...FITCHBURG...CHESTERFIELD...BLANDFORD...AMHERST...
NORTHAMPTON...SPRINGFIELD...MILFORD...WORCESTER...AYER...
JAFFREY...KEENE...PETERBOROUGH...WEARE
111 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHERN 
  NEW HAMPSHIRE...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NORTHERN 
  CONNECTICUT...HARTFORD CT...TOLLAND CT AND WINDHAM CT. IN 
  MASSACHUSETTS...EASTERN FRANKLIN MA...EASTERN HAMPDEN MA... 
  EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA...NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA...NORTHERN 
  WORCESTER MA...SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA...WESTERN FRANKLIN MA... 
  WESTERN HAMPDEN MA AND WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA. IN SOUTHERN NEW 
  HAMPSHIRE...CHESHIRE NH AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH 
  NH. 

* UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY

* PERSISTENT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED LATER 
  TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME AREAS WITH THE WATCH HAVE 
  ALREADY SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EARLIER THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL 
  RAINFALL OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY WITHIN STRONGER 
  THUNDERSTORMS...COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING. 

* THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR URBAN AREAS AND SMALLER 
  TRIBUTARIES...STREAMS AND CREEKS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

THOMPSON

855 
WGUS61 KBOX 240823
FFABOX

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
423 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

...FLASH FLOOD RISK FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY...

.LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL EARLY THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL AREAS OF
RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN LATER THIS MORNING. LOCALIZED
RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS IS STILL
POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA. AS SUCH THE WATCH WILL CONTINUE.

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>004-008>013-015>021-026-NHZ011-015-RIZ001>007-
241600-
/O.CON.KBOX.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-130524T1600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-
EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-
SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SUFFOLK MA-
EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-
EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-
NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-CHESHIRE NH-
WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-EASTERN KENT RI-
BRISTOL RI-WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARTFORD...WINDSOR LOCKS...UNION...
VERNON...PUTNAM...WILLIMANTIC...CHARLEMONT...GREENFIELD...
ORANGE...BARRE...FITCHBURG...CHESTERFIELD...BLANDFORD...AMHERST...
NORTHAMPTON...SPRINGFIELD...MILFORD...WORCESTER...FOXBORO...
NORWOOD...BOSTON...QUINCY...TAUNTON...BROCKTON...PLYMOUTH...
FALL RIVER...NEW BEDFORD...MATTAPOISETT...AYER...JAFFREY...
KEENE...PETERBOROUGH...WEARE...FOSTER...SMITHFIELD...PROVIDENCE...
WEST GREENWICH...WARWICK...BRISTOL...NARRAGANSETT...WESTERLY...
NEWPORT
423 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHERN NEW
  HAMPSHIRE AND RHODE ISLAND...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN
  NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...HARTFORD CT...TOLLAND CT AND WINDHAM CT.
  IN MASSACHUSETTS...EASTERN FRANKLIN MA...EASTERN HAMPDEN
  MA...EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA...EASTERN NORFOLK MA...EASTERN
  PLYMOUTH MA...NORTHERN BRISTOL MA...NORTHERN MIDDLESEX
  MA...NORTHERN WORCESTER MA...SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA...SOUTHERN
  PLYMOUTH MA...SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA...SUFFOLK MA...WESTERN
  FRANKLIN MA...WESTERN HAMPDEN MA...WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA...
  WESTERN NORFOLK MA AND WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA. IN SOUTHERN NEW
  HAMPSHIRE...CHESHIRE NH AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH.
  IN RHODE ISLAND...BRISTOL RI...EASTERN KENT RI...NEWPORT
  RI...NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI...SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI...
  WASHINGTON RI AND WESTERN KENT RI.

* UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY

* AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS
  MORNING. HEAVY RAINFALL LATER THIS MORNING...PARTICULARLY WITHIN
  STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS...COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING.

* THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR URBAN AREAS AND SMALLER 
  TRIBUTARIES...STREAMS AND CREEKS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

028 
WGUS61 KBOX 241057
FFABOX

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
657 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

...FLASH FLOOD RISK CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE MORNING HOURS...

.LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL EARLY THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL AREAS
OF RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN LATER THIS MORNING. LOCALIZED
RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS IS STILL
POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA...ESPECIALLY IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP. AS SUCH THE WATCH WILL CONTINUE.

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>004-008>012-026-NHZ011-015-RIZ001>004-006-
241200-
/O.CAN.KBOX.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-130524T1600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-
EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-
SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-CHESHIRE NH-
WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-EASTERN KENT RI-
WASHINGTON RI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARTFORD...WINDSOR LOCKS...UNION...
VERNON...PUTNAM...WILLIMANTIC...CHARLEMONT...GREENFIELD...
ORANGE...BARRE...FITCHBURG...CHESTERFIELD...BLANDFORD...AMHERST...
NORTHAMPTON...SPRINGFIELD...MILFORD...WORCESTER...AYER...
JAFFREY...KEENE...PETERBOROUGH...WEARE...FOSTER...SMITHFIELD...
PROVIDENCE...WEST GREENWICH...WARWICK...NARRAGANSETT...WESTERLY
657 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...
MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND RHODE ISLAND HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. 

$$

MAZ013-015>021-RIZ005-007-241600-
/O.CON.KBOX.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-130524T1600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-
NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-
SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-BRISTOL RI-NEWPORT RI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FOXBORO...NORWOOD...BOSTON...QUINCY...
TAUNTON...BROCKTON...PLYMOUTH...FALL RIVER...NEW BEDFORD...
MATTAPOISETT...BRISTOL...NEWPORT
657 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS AND EASTERN RHODE
  ISLAND...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN MASSACHUSETTS...EASTERN
  NORFOLK MA... EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA...NORTHERN BRISTOL
  MA...SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA...SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA...SUFFOLK
  MA...WESTERN NORFOLK MA AND WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA. IN RHODE
  ISLAND...BRISTOL RI AND NEWPORT RI.

* UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY

* AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS
  MORNING...PARTICULARLY WITHIN STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS...COULD
  RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING.

* THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR URBAN AREAS AND SMALLER 
  TRIBUTARIES...STREAMS AND CREEKS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

BELK/DUNTEN

235 
WGUS61 KBOX 241344
FFABOX

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
944 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED...

.WHILE SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ALONG WITH A FEW HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...THE RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED
FLOODING HAS DIMINISHED. THUS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
CANCELLED.

MAZ013-015>021-RIZ005-007-241445-
/O.CAN.KBOX.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-130524T1600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-
NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-
SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-BRISTOL RI-NEWPORT RI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FOXBORO...NORWOOD...BOSTON...QUINCY...
TAUNTON...BROCKTON...PLYMOUTH...FALL RIVER...NEW BEDFORD...
MATTAPOISETT...BRISTOL...NEWPORT
944 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE
ISLAND HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

$$

NOCERA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
758 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY INTO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THIS FRONT...CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO LINGER
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
COOLER CONDITIONS...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. SOME OF THE
RAINFALL WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE ON
MONDAY. DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
740 PM UPDATE...
SWATH OF SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM NEAR NYC THROUGH WESTERN CT...
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MA INTO SOUTHERN NH AT 23Z TENDING TO TRAIN
ACROSS THESE AREAS BUT PRECIP WITHIN THIS AREA. PRECIP AND
CONVECTION TENDING TO WANE AS SUN SETS. SEE ANOTHER AREA REFIRING
AND APPEARS IT WILL TRAIN ACROSS THIS SAME REGION OUT OF MD/E
VA/SE PA. HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS THE PRIMARY CONCERN...WITH PWATS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR NEAR 1.7".

ANOTHER AREA OF PRECIP WORKING UP THE COAST INTO EASTERN LONG
ISLAND...RI AND E MA. NOTING SOME COLD CLOUD TOPS SEEN IN THIS
NEW AREA...THOUGH MOST OF THOSE APPEAR TO STAY OFFSHORE SO PRECIP
IN THIS AREA WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT.

OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF REGION IS MAINLY DRY WITH ONLY A FEW
SHOWERS...BUT EXPECT PRECIP TO MOVE IN THERE OVERNIGHT AS PREV
FORECAST SUGGESTS.

HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT...COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EAST FROM CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
WILL APPROACH WESTERN NEW ENG TOWARD DAYBREAK AS MID LEVEL TROF
AMPLIFIES OVER THE GRT LAKES. SNE WILL BE UNDER THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET WHICH WILL PROVIDE GOOD FORCING
ACTING ON HIGH PWAT AIRMASS TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO
SNE. SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE INTERIOR
IN THE EVENING...THEN FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE COASTAL PLAIN AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ACROSS SE NEW ENG.
INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKENING OVERNIGHT AND EVEN ELEVATED
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL. STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLD
TSTMS GIVEN DEEP SYNOPTIC FORCING...BUT LACK OF INSTABILITY SHOULD
LIMIT RAINFALL RATES. AREAS OF URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
LIKELY OVERNIGHT IN EASTERN NEW ENG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE MID ATLC
REGION ON FRIDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. SFC LOW DEVELOPS ON
THE FRONT WHICH WILL SLOW ITS EWD PROGRESS ACROSS SNE. LOW LEVEL
JET WILL BE SITUATED JUST E OF CAPE COD IN THE MORNING WITH AXIS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL CONFINED TO THE CAPE/ISLANDS...BEFORE MOVING E
IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ALL DAY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION WITH DEEP MOISTURE AXIS IN PLACE AND SFC WAVE
MOVING ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IN FACT...THIS HAS A WINTER LOOK
TO IT WITH DECENT LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND DEFORMATION AXIS
SETTING UP ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENG NW OF SFC LOW. TEMPS WILL
LIKELY FALL INTO THE 50S OVER NW HIGHER TERRAIN AS FRONT MOVES TO
THE EAST...BUT SHOULD REACH WELL INTO 60S TO AROUND 70 ACROSS SE
NEW ENG WHICH WILL REMAIN E OF THE BOUNDARY FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
THE FRONT SHOULD REACH THE I95 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND COOLER
  TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND
* IMPROVEMENTS BEGIN ON MONDAY...WITH DRIER BUT COOL CONDITIONS
* MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARRIVE BY LATE NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
ALL OPERATIONAL MODELS NOW ON BOARD WITH DEVELOPING AMPLIFIED
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER 48...WITH DIGGING TROUGHS ON
THE EAST AND WEST COASTS WITH BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S. THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THIS PERIOD. H5 CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE MID ATLC THEN SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG SLOWLY MOVING COLD
FRONT. LOWERED CONFIDENCE ON TIMING THE EXIT OF THE LOW...
HOWEVER. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH...SHOULD SEE IMPROVING
CONDITIONS BUT COOL TEMPS. TEMPS START TO MODERATE BY MID WEEK.

WENT ALONG WITH 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF AND THEIR ENSEMBLES...WHICH IS
PRETTY CLOSE TO THE WPC GUIDANCE.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...CONTINUED CLOUDY SKIES WITH SHOWERS
AND COOL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
SURFACE LOW PRES TRAPPED WITH ITS UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW WILL
SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
ANYTIME DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. CURRENT QPF FORECAST SUGGESTS
POSSIBILITY OF 1-2 INCHES OF GENERAL RAIN WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE CT VALLEY AND SW NH. HOWEVER...WITH THE CHANCE OF
THUNDER...COULD SEE LOCALIZED FLOODING ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND WESTERN AREAS WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL OF FLOODING ALONG RIVERS AND LOW
LYING AREAS.

TEMPS WILL BECOME RATHER CHILLY ACROSS S NH/W MA SAT NIGHT AS LOW
PRES SPINS ACROSS E MA...WITH N-NW WINDS IN PLACE. MOS GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS READINGS FALLING BACK TO THE MID-UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. CAN NOT RULE OUT THE REMOTE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
MIXING OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF SW NH.

FOR NOW...LOOKS LIKE THE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY
MOVE NE DURING SUNDAY...BUT PRECIP WILL LINGER INTO SUN NIGHT
BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM SW-NE OVERNIGHT SUN. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
ONLY BE IN THE 50S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY...TRANSITION DAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA.
MAY STILL SEE SOME WIDELY SCT SHOWERS ACROSS S NH/NE MA EARLY BUT
WILL PUSH NE. WILL CONTINUE COOL...BUT READINGS SHOULD REACH THE
60S.

TUESDAY-THURSDAY...HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT TO THE MID ATLC COAST THEN
OFFSHORE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. EXPECT A DRY FORECAST WITH SLOWLY
MODERATING TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

OVERVIEW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...EXPECT VFR-MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING TO LOWER TO IFR-LIFR
WITH AREAS OF FOG AND MVFR-IFR VSBYS DEVELOPING. AREAS OF
SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS ACROSS CT VALLEY INTO SW NH WILL EXPAND E
OVERNIGHT WITH STRONG SW FLOW AT SURFACE AND ALOFT. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL LIKELY. LOCAL LLWS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS CAPE AND
ISLANDS AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ACROSS REGION.

FRIDAY...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS SHIFT
TO W-NW ACROSS WESTERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN LATE IN
THE DAY ACROSS THE E. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAINLY IN THE
MORNING. LLWS LIKELY ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS THROUGH MIDDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT LOWERING CIGS TO IFR
TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS INCREASING. SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. EXPECT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS THIS
EVENING TO BECOME IFR AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH A
GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT. A FEW TSTMS THROUGH MIDNIGHT POSSIBLE.
PRECIP SHOULD LESSEN FRIDAY MORNING...BUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
LINGER.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VERY
UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH VARIABILITY BETWEEN VFR CONDITIONS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA/SCT TSRA/FOG. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
DURING SUNDAY NIGHT FROM SW TO NE.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW PROB OF
MVFR CIGS ACROSS S NH/N MA EARLY MON THEN IMPROVING. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRIDAY.

LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING NEAR SCA GUSTS ON THE WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT...DIMINISHING WEST OF THE CANAL LATER TONIGHT AS THE LLJ
MOVES TO THE EAST. STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL LIMIT GUSTS SO
GALES NOT EXPECTED. PERSISTENT SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN BUILDING
SEAS THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON FRIDAY AS THE LLJ
MOVES E OF THE WATERS. EXPECT LOW VSBYS IN FOG AND LOCALLY HEAVY
SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LOW PRES AND COLD FRONT
WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE WATERS...THEN STALL ALONG THE EASTERN NEAR
SHORE WATERS. EXPECT SW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT EARLY...THEN WILL
DIMINISH. LOW PROB FOR THUNDER. AREAS OF LOW VSBYS IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG. SEAS WILL REMAIN AOA 5 FT MAINLY OVER THE
OPEN WATERS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE MAINLY FOR TIMING. AS LOW PRES
STALLS ACROSS E MA/MASS BAY...WILL SEE LIGHT/VRBL WINDS EXCEPT
N-NW OVER THE WESTERN WATERS LATER SAT...WHICH WILL SHIFT TOWARD
THE EASTERN WATERS DURING SUN. SEAS REMAIN HIGH. LOW CHANCE OF
TSTMS SAT-SAT NIGHT. LOW PROB OF GUSTS UP TO 25 KT SUN.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS BECOME W WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT MON...THEN DIMINISH MON NIGHT-TUE. SEAS AROUND 5
FT ON THE OUTER WATERS MON...THEN SUBSIDING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RI SOUTH COAST THIS EVENING...
A MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHERLY FETCH OF SURFACE WIND AND INCREASING
LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO DRIVE ENOUGH WATER INTO NARRAGANSETT
BAY FOR A SURGE AROUND OR EVEN JUST ABOVE A FOOT AT THE TIME OF
THE EVENING HIGH TIDE...ABOUT 2330Z. THIS WILL BE ON TOP OF A
PARTICULARLY HIGH SPRING TIDE. BOTH THE ESTOFS AND ETSS SURGE
GUIDANCE DEPICT ESSENTIALLY NO SURGE THIS EVENING BUT SEEMS LIKE
TOO MUCH OF A S TO SW WIND TO AVOID SOME SURGE...AND AT 15Z PVD
WAS ALREADY SHOWING A .4 FT SURGE AND CLIMBING. IN ADDITION...
SHORELINE FLOODING COULD BE EXACERBATED SOME BY ANY HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCING FRESH WATER RUNOFF THAT STRUGGLES TO DRAIN AT THE
SHORELINE DURING HIGH TIDE.

EAST COAST OF MA THIS WEEKEND...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WITH SURFACE LOW WOBBLING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND
INTO SUNDAY...EXPECT GUSTY NORTHERLY TO NORTHWEST WINDS ESPECIALLY
DURING THE DAYTIMES HOURS. AT BOSTON...A HIGH TIDE OF 11.9FT WILL
OCCUR ON FRIDAY NIGHT AT 11:21 PM AND 12.2 FT EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AT 12:12 AM. EXPECT A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS DURING THE
FRIDAY HIGH TIDE SO THIS IS LESS THAN A CONCERN. LOOKING AT THE
SUNDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE...NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY
HELP INCREASE THE SURGE ESPECIALLY FOR CAPE COD BAY. RIGHT NOW
ONLY EXPECT MINOR SPLASHOVER ACROSS NORTH FACING BEACHES. WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND UPDATE WITH THE LATEST FORECAST
GUIDANCE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ002-
     004>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ233-234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KJC/EVT
NEAR TERM...KJC/EVT
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...THOMPSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
416 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001-003-008-242030-
HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-
EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-
WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-
SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-
SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-
WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-
SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-NANTUCKET MA-
NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-CHESHIRE NH-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-
WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
WESTERN KENT RI-BLOCK ISLAND RI-
416 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...
CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS...EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND
AND SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG
TO POSSIBLY SEVERE. MAIN THREATS WILL BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS. SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THESE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE STRONG...HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH
LOCALIZED FLOODING.

ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT MAY CAUSE
LOCAL FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

RIZ002-004>007-242030-
SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-EASTERN KENT RI-BRISTOL RI-WASHINGTON RI-
NEWPORT RI-
416 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND AND
SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE. MAIN THREATS WILL BE STRONG WINDS GUSTS AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THESE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE STRONG...HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH
LOCALIZED FLOODING.

ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT MAY CAUSE
LOCAL FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256-242030-
BOSTON HARBOR-CAPE COD BAY-NANTUCKET SOUND-VINEYARD SOUND-
BUZZARDS BAY-RHODE ISLAND SOUND-NARRAGANSETT BAY-BLOCK ISLAND SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS EAST OF IPSWICH BAY AND THE STELLWAGEN BANK NATIONAL
MARINE SANCTUARY-MASSACHUSETTS BAY AND IPSWICH BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PROVINCETOWN MA TO CHATHAM MA TO NANTUCKET MA
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS EXTENDING OUT TO 25 NM SOUTH OF MARTHAS VINEYARD AND
NANTUCKET-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MONTAUK NY TO MARTHAS VINEYARD EXTENDING OUT TO
20 NM SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND-
416 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL WATERS
AND RHODE ISLAND COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

LOW PROBABILITY OF SOUTHERLY GALES THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN WATERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF NORTH TO NORTHWEST GALES SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON

YOU CAN FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AT
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.BOSTON.GOV

YOU CAN FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AT
@NWSBOSTON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
454 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     FLOOD            NEW BRITAIN             41.68N  72.79W
05/23/2013                   HARTFORD           CT   AMATEUR RADIO

            FARMINGTON AVE FLOODED WITH UP TO 18 INCHES OF WATER.
            BURITT AND OSGOOD AVE ABOUT 8 INCHES OF WATER COVERNING
            THE INTERSECTION.

&&

AED