Severe Thunderstorm Warning 60, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
936 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2013

.UPDATE...
MESOSCALE UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY SITUATED NEAR NEW ORLEANS IS IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING NEGATIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE MIDDLE
MISSOURI VALLEY.  THIS SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WHILE SLOWLY MOVING EAST NORTHEAST.  IT SHOULD
CROSS THE CWA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 15 HOURS.  THE BIG UNCERTAINTY
WITH THIS LOW CONTINUES TO BE THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT...WHICH
CURRENTLY IS JUST BARELY ONSHORE FROM MOB WESTWARD ALONG THE MS AND
LA GULF COAST.  IT IS LIKELY THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT
NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS ACCOMPANYING THE SURFACE LOW.
TYPICALLY THIS WOULD MEAN TROUBLE FOR OUR CWA WITH THE THREAT OF
TORNADOES.  HOWEVER...IT LOOKS AS IF THE MOISTURE RETURN AND
INSTABILITY RECOVERY WILL BE HARD PRESSED...ONLY GIVEN ABOUT AN HOUR
OR TWO OF RETURN FLOW BEFORE THE COLD FRONT/DRYLINE COMES SWEEPING
THROUGH ENDING ALL SEVERE ACTIVITY FOR THIS OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  A
GOOD OB TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WILL BE MERIDIAN IN
SOUTHERN MS.  THE CURRENT TD IS 57...AND IT WILL BE INTERESTING
TO SEE IF IT CAN REACH THE 60S.  THIS WILL PROBABLY TELL THE TAIL
GOING EAST INTO CENTRAL AL.  IN THE MEANTIME WILL GET THE ELEVATED
NONTRIVIAL STORMS AND BOWING LINE SEGMENTS TO DEAL WITH...HAIL AS
THE MAIN THREAT AS WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT
THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME DAMAGING WINDS ALTHOUGH THAT APPEARS LEES
LIKELY GIVEN THE ELEVATE NATURE.  BOTTOM LINE...WATCH THE SURFACE
LOW...TRIPLE POINT...AND WARM FRONT...AS THEY COULD STILL BE
TROUBLE.  THE STORMS NORTH OF THE MCCOMB MS AREA ARE BEING TRIGGERED
BY THE TRIPLE POINT...JUST FOR REFERENCE.

17/KLAWS

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MVFR CEILINGS CURRENTLY COVER THE TAF SITES. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING WARM FRONT. KTOI HAS ALREADY EXPERIENCED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AND EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS  WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CEILINGS SHOULD DROP
DOWN TO IFR AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTHWARD WITH VISIBILITIES
DROPPING DOWN TO IFR IN THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. MANY UPDATES AND
AMENDMENTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TONIGHT TO REFINE TIMING AND
EVOLUTION OF THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT. THE COLD FRONT FURTHER TO
THE WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WITH
WINDS BECOMING MORE WESTERLY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
BEHIND THE FRONT AND WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AFTER 17Z TOMORROW.

MA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2013/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING SEVERE STORMS AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES
TO CENTRAL ALABAMA TONIGHT IS TAKING SHAPE TO OUR WEST. A SURFACE
LOW IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE WESTERN LOUISIANA GULF COAST AS A TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WARM FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WELL TO OUR SOUTH. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AS BEEN CONFINED TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AND ALABAMA COASTAL COUNTIES...CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT AS IT INCHES
NORTHWARD. A COUPLE LINES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED AND PUSHED NORTHWARD. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ELEVATED AS IT
RIDES OVER A STABLE AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE...BUT STILL POSES A RISK
OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

THE SURFACE LOW TO OUR WEST WILL DEEPEN AND QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD
TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
AND TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT. EXPECT TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
WELL TO OUR WEST AND PUSH INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS EVENING. AS THE
SURFACE LOW NEARS THE MISSISSIPPI STATE LINE...THE WARM FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD...ALTHOUGH JUST HOW FAR REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. MODELS INDICATE A QUICK SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD BEFORE MIDNIGHT IN THE SOUTHWEST AS THE SURFACE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED DRY LINE PUSH INTO THE AREA. THIS INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY...COUPLED WITH ENHANCED WIND FLOW FROM THE STRENGTHENING
STORM SYSTEM AND UPPER LEVEL JET STRUCTURE...WOULD SUPPORT A TORNADO
THREAT...ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THIS THREAT AREA
SHIFTS ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT. FURTHER NORTH...IF
STORMS REMAIN ORGANIZED...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE. DO NOT EXPECT TO MAKE ANY LARGE CHANGES TO THE HWO THREAT
AREAS AT THIS TIME.

MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE EAST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BY SUNRISE.
MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA TOMORROW...AS THE SURFACE
LOW TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WILL DRAG THE
ACTUAL COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY. MODELS SHOWING
QUITE A BIT OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH PROFILES
DRY OUT RATHER QUICKLY. EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO HANG AROUND TOMORROW
LONGER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES...SO THOSE LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITIES MIGHT NOT BE REALIZED. NEVERTHELESS...FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH CLOUD COVER AND
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL NOT ADD A MENTION OF LARGE HAIL IN
THE HWO FOR TOMORROW.

14

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

BY SUNDAY EVENING THE COLD FRONT AND ALL PRECIP SHOULD BE EXITING
EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA. SOME VERY LIGHT WRAP AROUND PRECIP APPEARS
POSSIBLE BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS AS THE UPPER LOW BECOMES
MORE STRETCHED OVER THE SOUTHEAST. GIVEN THE VERY LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS
MOSTLY REMAINING OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA... LEFT POPS 10 PERCENT OR
LESS FOR BOTH DAYS. A FREEZE LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY MORNINGS... WITH THE BETTER CHANCE OF SOME MID TO UPPER
20S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA WEDNESDAY MORNING.

AN BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK... WHICH
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO INCREASE SOME EACH DAY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS RETURNS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST.

77/GLEASON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     50  63  37  46  31 / 100  60  10  10  10
ANNISTON    52  66  37  47  30 / 100  60  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  54  66  35  48  31 / 100  50  10  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  56  66  37  51  33 / 100  40  10  10  10
CALERA      56  67  37  49  32 / 100  40  10  10  10
AUBURN      55  70  37  50  33 / 100  60  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  57  73  39  53  35 / 100  40  10  10  10
TROY        54  74  38  53  33 / 100  40   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

17/05/14/77

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
614 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2013

ALZ011>015-017>050-242315-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-
CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-
CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-MACON-
BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
614 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT BUT THE THREATS VARY
WITH LOCATION THROUGHOUT CENTRAL ALABAMA.

LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA OVERNIGHT. THE THREAT WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
EVENING AND WILL PERSISTS THROUGH 6 AM.

TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM LIVINGSTON TO CLANTON TO AUBURN. THIS TORNADO THREAT WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM 10 PM UNTIL 6 AM. THIS THREAT IS DUE TO A WARM
FRONT SLOWLY MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA OVERNIGHT.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING ISOLATED FLASH OR AREAL FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA OVERNIGHT. THE GREATEST
THREAT APPEARS TO BE ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAIN OCCURRED LAST NIGHT. TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PRODUCE SOME ISSUES EVERYWHERE ELSE.

THE SEVERE THREAT WILL END FROM 3 AM TO AROUND 6 AM WEST TO EAST
AS DRIER AIR INVADES THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

WINDY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE EXITING
COLD FRONT. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...DUE TO THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER.

75

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
903 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0838 PM     HAIL             1 N CHICKASAW STATE PAR 32.37N 87.79W
03/23/2013  E1.00 INCH       MARENGO            AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ALONG HIGHWAY 43.

&&

LINHARES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
909 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0837 PM     HAIL             4 SW CLANTON            32.80N 86.68W
03/23/2013  E0.50 INCH       CHILTON            AL   PUBLIC

            HAIL FELL 5 TO 6 MINUTES

&&

LINHARES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
913 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0819 PM     HAIL             1 E RAMER               32.05N 86.20W
03/23/2013  E0.75 INCH       MONTGOMERY         AL   PUBLIC

&&

LINHARES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
914 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2013

ALZ033-035-040-041-240300-
AUTAUGA AL-CHILTON AL-DALLAS AL-PERRY AL-
914 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN AUTAUGA...SOUTHERN
PERRY...NORTHERN DALLAS AND SOUTHWESTERN CHILTON COUNTIES UNTIL 1000
PM CDT...

AT 910 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR MARION JUNCTION...OR 12 MILES EAST OF UNIONTOWN...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  VALLEY GRANDE...
  POTTER STATION...
  PAUL M GRIST STATE PARK...
  BURNSVILLE...
  PARNELL...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV
STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 3286 8684 3261 8648 3232 8733 3248 8744
TIME...MOT...LOC 0214Z 240DEG 44KT 3246 8726

MA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
914 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2013

ALZ013>015-240315-
FAYETTE AL-WALKER AL-WINSTON AL-
914 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WINSTON...WALKER AND FAYETTE
COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 PM CDT...

AT 915 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM LAKE BUTTAHATCHEE TO
ETHELSVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  FAYETTE...
  LYNN...
  CARBON HILL...
  ARLEY...
  JASPER...

&&

LAT...LON 3429 8711 3399 8710 3397 8713 3391 8708
      3359 8733 3359 8737 3360 8738 3361 8763
      3358 8763 3358 8767 3353 8766 3352 8794
      3377 8795 3392 8783 3392 8764 3415 8763
TIME...MOT...LOC 0215Z 253DEG 49KT 3411 8757 3345 8811

GRANTHAM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
917 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2013

ALZ022-030-031-240315-
GREENE AL-PICKENS AL-SUMTER AL-
917 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN SUMTER...PICKENS AND
NORTHERN GREENE COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 PM CDT...

AT 918 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BEVILL
LOCK AND DAM TO 17 MILES WEST OF EMELLE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55
MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  PICKENSVILLE...
  ALICEVILLE...
  CARROLLTON...
  REFORM...
  GORDO...

&&

LAT...LON 3331 8831 3345 8784 3302 8784 3302 8773
      3298 8773 3293 8778 3290 8777 3268 8838
TIME...MOT...LOC 0218Z 247DEG 50KT 3317 8838 3270 8855

GRANTHAM