Severe Thunderstorm Warning 58, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
638 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2013

.UPDATE...
FOR AVIATION

&&

.DISCUSSION...

STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING SEVERE STORMS AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES
TO CENTRAL ALABAMA TONIGHT IS TAKING SHAPE TO OUR WEST. A SURFACE
LOW IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE WESTERN LOUISIANA GULF COAST AS A TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WARM FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WELL TO OUR SOUTH. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AS BEEN CONFINED TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AND ALABAMA COASTAL COUNTIES...CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT AS IT INCHES
NORTHWARD. A COUPLE LINES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED AND PUSHED NORTHWARD. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ELEVATED AS IT
RIDES OVER A STABLE AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE...BUT STILL POSES A RISK
OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

THE SURFACE LOW TO OUR WEST WILL DEEPEN AND QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD
TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
AND TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT. EXPECT TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
WELL TO OUR WEST AND PUSH INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS EVENING. AS THE
SURFACE LOW NEARS THE MISSISSIPPI STATE LINE...THE WARM FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD...ALTHOUGH JUST HOW FAR REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. MODELS INDICATE A QUICK SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD BEFORE MIDNIGHT IN THE SOUTHWEST AS THE SURFACE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED DRY LINE PUSH INTO THE AREA. THIS INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY...COUPLED WITH ENHANCED WIND FLOW FROM THE STRENGTHENING
STORM SYSTEM AND UPPER LEVEL JET STRUCTURE...WOULD SUPPORT A TORNADO
THREAT...ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THIS THREAT AREA
SHIFTS ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT. FURTHER NORTH...IF
STORMS REMAIN ORGANIZED...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE. DO NOT EXPECT TO MAKE ANY LARGE CHANGES TO THE HWO THREAT
AREAS AT THIS TIME.

MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE EAST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BY SUNRISE.
MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA TOMORROW...AS THE SURFACE
LOW TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WILL DRAG THE
ACTUAL COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY. MODELS SHOWING
QUITE A BIT OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH PROFILES
DRY OUT RATHER QUICKLY. EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO HANG AROUND TOMORROW
LONGER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES...SO THOSE LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITIES MIGHT NOT BE REALIZED. NEVERTHELESS...FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH CLOUD COVER AND
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL NOT ADD A MENTION OF LARGE HAIL IN
THE HWO FOR TOMORROW.

14

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

BY SUNDAY EVENING THE COLD FRONT AND ALL PRECIP SHOULD BE EXITING
EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA. SOME VERY LIGHT WRAP AROUND PRECIP APPEARS
POSSIBLE BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS AS THE UPPER LOW BECOMES
MORE STRETCHED OVER THE SOUTHEAST. GIVEN THE VERY LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS
MOSTLY REMAINING OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA... LEFT POPS 10 PERCENT OR
LESS FOR BOTH DAYS. A FREEZE LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY MORNINGS... WITH THE BETTER CHANCE OF SOME MID TO UPPER
20S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA WEDNESDAY MORNING.

AN BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK... WHICH
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO INCREASE SOME EACH DAY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS RETURNS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST.

77/GLEASON

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION

MVFR CEILINGS CURRENTLY COVER THE TAF SITES. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING WARM FRONT. KTOI HAS ALREADY EXPERIENCED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AND EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS  WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CEILINGS SHOULD DROP
DOWN TO IFR AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTHWARD WITH VISIBILITIES
DROPPING DOWN TO IFR IN THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. MANY UPDATES AND
AMENDMENTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TONIGHT TO REFINE TIMING AND
EVOLUTION OF THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT. THE COLD FRONT FURTHER TO
THE WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WITH
WINDS BECOMING MORE WESTERLY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
BEHIND THE FRONT AND WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AFTER 17Z TOMORROW.

MA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     50  63  37  46  31 / 100  60  10  10  10
ANNISTON    52  66  37  47  30 / 100  60  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  54  66  35  48  31 / 100  50  10  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  56  66  37  51  33 / 100  40  10  10  10
CALERA      56  67  37  49  32 / 100  40  10  10  10
AUBURN      56  70  37  50  33 / 100  60  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  61  73  39  53  35 / 100  40  10  10  10
TROY        61  74  38  53  33 / 100  40   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
614 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2013

ALZ011>015-017>050-242315-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-
CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-
CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-MACON-
BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
614 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT BUT THE THREATS VARY
WITH LOCATION THROUGHOUT CENTRAL ALABAMA.

LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA OVERNIGHT. THE THREAT WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
EVENING AND WILL PERSISTS THROUGH 6 AM.

TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM LIVINGSTON TO CLANTON TO AUBURN. THIS TORNADO THREAT WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM 10 PM UNTIL 6 AM. THIS THREAT IS DUE TO A WARM
FRONT SLOWLY MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA OVERNIGHT.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING ISOLATED FLASH OR AREAL FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA OVERNIGHT. THE GREATEST
THREAT APPEARS TO BE ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAIN OCCURRED LAST NIGHT. TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PRODUCE SOME ISSUES EVERYWHERE ELSE.

THE SEVERE THREAT WILL END FROM 3 AM TO AROUND 6 AM WEST TO EAST
AS DRIER AIR INVADES THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

WINDY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE EXITING
COLD FRONT. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...DUE TO THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER.

75

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
754 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0747 PM     HAIL             MARION                  32.63N 87.32W
03/23/2013  E1.75 INCH       PERRY              AL   AMATEUR RADIO

            NEAR JUDSON COLLEGE

&&

LINHARES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
804 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0343 PM     HAIL             3 S TROY                31.77N 85.97W
03/23/2013  E0.50 INCH       PIKE               AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            PEA TO PENNY SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN THE SOUTHERN CITY
            LIMITS OF TROY ON INDIAN CREEK TRAIL.

0640 PM     HAIL             CUBA                    32.44N 88.37W
03/23/2013  E0.25 INCH       SUMTER             AL   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

0645 PM     HAIL             1 N YORK                32.51N 88.30W
03/23/2013  E0.88 INCH       SUMTER             AL   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

0645 PM     HAIL             YORK                    32.50N 88.30W
03/23/2013  E0.50 INCH       SUMTER             AL   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

0701 PM     HAIL             4 S BLUFFPORT           32.54N 88.11W
03/23/2013  E1.75 INCH       SUMTER             AL   PUBLIC

            GOLF BALL HAIL COVERING THE GROUND AT THE BP FOOD MART ON
            HIGHWAY 28.

0713 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DEMOPOLIS               32.52N 87.84W
03/23/2013                   MARENGO            AL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            POWER POLE AND POWER LINES BLOWN DOWN ON HIGHWAY 43 AT
            THE NATIONAL GUARD ARMORY.

0715 PM     HAIL             1 N DEMOPOLIS           32.53N 87.84W
03/23/2013  E0.50 INCH       MARENGO            AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MARBLE HAIL COMPLETELY COVERING THE GROUND.

0716 PM     HAIL             2 N DEMOPOLIS           32.54N 87.84W
03/23/2013  E1.00 INCH       GREENE             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HAIL AT LEAST ONE HALF INCH DEEP.

0723 PM     HAIL             CEDARVILLE              32.61N 87.67W
03/23/2013  E1.75 INCH       HALE               AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            THE GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL IS NOW COMPLETELY COVERING THE
            GROUND.

0734 PM     HAIL             1 N NEWBERN             32.61N 87.54W
03/23/2013  E1.75 INCH       HALE               AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            GOLF BALL HAIL BROKE OUT WINDOWS AND DAMAGED HOMES NEAR
            NEWBURN.

0747 PM     HAIL             MARION                  32.63N 87.32W
03/23/2013  E1.75 INCH       PERRY              AL   AMATEUR RADIO

            NEAR JUDSON COLLEGE

&&

LINHARES

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