Severe Thunderstorm Warning 98, NWS Bismarck, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
703 PM CDT MON JUL 8 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT MON JUL 8 2013

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 402 FOR
AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.

ONGOING CONVECTION OVER EAST-CENTRAL MONTANA SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS
EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY IS CONGEALING INTO AN MCS AND IS MOVING
INTO A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR MCS MAINTENANCE (SURFACE BASED
CAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG PER LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS). THIS INITIAL
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PROMPTED SPC TO ISSUE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH FOR AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.

SHORT-RANGE MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG THE PRIMARY LINE
OF CONVECTION (CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM GLASGOW TO BILLINGS) TO
PUSH INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 03Z...AND SWEEP ACROSS THE
CWA TONIGHT. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS JUST HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
THE INITIAL MCS CHEWS UP BEFORE THE PRIMARY LINE SWINGS THROUGH.
STILL WILL MAINTAIN SEVERE WORDING PAST MIDNIGHT FOR CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR EVENING TRENDS AND
MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS AS NEEDED. THE UPDATED GRIDDED AND TEXT
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT MON JUL 8 2013

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE DURING THE SHORT TERM IS STORM
COVERAGE/TIMING/SEVERITY THROUGH TONIGHT. SCATTERED STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND/OR MOVE INTO THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
MORE FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS CONFINED TO THE WEST THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON. SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH
LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT. THE HRRR IS STILL FOCUSING ON THE SOUTHWEST
FOR INITIATION...WHILE THE 12Z WRF FOCUSES ON A FRONT STRETCHING
FROM WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR CLOSELY FOR INITIATION. AN INTENSE SUPERCELL IS MOVING
THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA...AND WOULD IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA
AFTER 00Z IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER. A BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT WILL LIKELY TRACK FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER AROUND 9 PM CDT. DAMAGING STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT. FAST STORM MOTIONS SHOULD
PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING. A MULTI- MEDIA WEATHER BRIEFING
HAS BEEN POSTED AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BIS. THE SEVERE THREAT MAY
PERSIST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE STORMS WEAKEN. ADDITIONAL
NON-SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT MON JUL 8 2013

MAIN HIGHLIGHT FOR THE LONG TERM IS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

THE PERSISTENT HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO
BE BOMBARDED BY SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DIVING DOWN OUT OF WESTERN
CANADA. THIS WILL FORCE THE RIDGE TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD OVER THE
CENTRAL STATES. THIS WILL IN TURN ALLOW NORTH DAKOTA TO BE
INFLUENCED BY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND LEE CYCLOGENESIS. BOTH THE
12 UTC ECMWF AND THE 12 UTC GFS BOTH HAVE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SURFACE LOW OVER
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE...AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IN ADDITION TO THOSE INGREDIENTS THE 12 UTC ECMWF IS
FORECASTING 50+ KNOTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR...2000+ MUCAPE...AND DEW
POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. IF THIS VERIFIES...SEVERE WEATHER
IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OTHERWISE...THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS ACTIVE WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIP THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS SHORTWAVES RIDE ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT MON JUL 8 2013

THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD IS THUNDERSTORMS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS. SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED
THIS EVENING...BUT TOUGH TO PINPOINT FAVORED AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT
AND TIMING. LATER TONIGHT...AFTER 02Z...ENHANCED WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH FAST MOVING LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THESE
SEVERE WEATHER ELEMENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE..TOO UNCERTAIN IN TIMING
TO INCLUDE IN TAF FORECAST. AVIATION PLANNERS SHOULD ANTICIPATE
MULTIPLE LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
STATE AFTER 02Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
329 PM CDT MON JUL 8 2013

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-091100-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
329 PM CDT MON JUL 8 2013 /229 PM MDT MON JUL 8 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WITH 1 TO 2 INCH DIAMETER HAIL THE MAIN THREAT.

MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST...FROM
MID EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE IS AN ENHANCED
THREAT FOR STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 200.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY MAINLY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 200...AND ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 200.

RP KINNEY/AJ

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
900 PM CDT MON JUL 8 2013

NDZ013-022-023-090245-
PIERCE ND-SHERIDAN ND-WELLS ND-
900 PM CDT MON JUL 8 2013

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR NORTHWESTERN WELLS...NORTHEASTERN
SHERIDAN AND SOUTHERN PIERCE COUNTIES UNTIL 945 PM CDT...

AT 857 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MARTIN...OR 60 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DEVILS
LAKE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  HARVEY...
  SELZ...
  MANFRED...
  WELLSBURG...
  HEIMDAL...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

ABELING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
902 PM CDT MON JUL 08 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 PM     HAIL             4 E THREE V CROSSING    46.56N 103.71W
07/08/2013  E1.00 INCH       SLOPE              ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL REPORTED. ESTIMATED WINDS
            UP TO 45 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN WERE ALSO REPORTED.

&&

LHUBER