Severe Thunderstorm Warning 60, NWS Bismarck, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
406 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

FORECAST UPDATE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 345.

UPDATED PRODUCTS SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD STILL STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS TODAY/TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THE RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOWER.

CURRENTLY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE DAKOTAS AHEAD
OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE ROCKIES. SMALL-
SCALE EMBEDDED S/WV IMPULSES CONTINUE TO EJECT OUT OF THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS REGIONS. SFC
TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES AS CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS INCREASE ALONG THE SFC
TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN ND. MODELS STRUGGLING
WITH SMALL-SCALE EMBEDDED WAVES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT SEEM
TO BE AGREEING ON A STRONGER IMPULSE LIFTING THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA
TOWARDS CENTRAL/EASTERN ND LATER TODAY. AS PROJECTED EARLIER BY
MODELS...0-6KM SHEAR IS INCREASING/EXPANDING EAST FROM WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA (WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY 40-45KTS) TOWARDS MORE
FAVORABLE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL NEAR THE SFC TROUGH. THIS
TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL THUS BE POSSIBLE WHERE THE 0-6KM SHEAR AND
MUCAPE APPROACHING 3000 J/KG IS EXPECTED TO COINCIDE LATER TODAY
AND INTO THIS EVENING.

CONVECTION/PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
LATER THIS EVENING...THEN START TO INCREASE WEST LATE TONIGHT AS
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH/PARENT S/WV IMPULSE SWINGS NORTHEAST
INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. THIS FEATURE CONTINUES NORTH AND EAST
SUNDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON CONTRIBUTING TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/SCT
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...WITH DECREASING CHANCES FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MINIMAL CHANCES FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AFTER TONIGHT WITH WEAKER INSTABILITY
ADVERTISED. STILL COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER STORMS EAST
LINGERING...BUT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE SHOULD
REMAIN OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

THE PERSISTENT MOIST/UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES THAT HAS RESULTED IN DAILY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LESSEN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...AS THE UPPER FLOW REGIME
TRANSITIONS TO A WESTERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY...AND EVENTUALLY A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BY LATE NEXT WEEK. THAT SAID...A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER TO H85 WINDS WILL ADVECT
HIGHER SFC TO H85 DEWPOINTS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL RISE TO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F...FEELING
VERY MUGGY AND HUMID. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN MONTANA MONDAY
WILL TRAVERSE THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY RESULTING IN A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER/MORE
STABLE AIR WILL FILTER IN BY LATE TUESDAY WEST...AND TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY CENTRAL AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY BEHIND
THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT.
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MAINTAINS PAST TRENDS IN THE LONG TERM MODELS TO BUILD OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS WITH AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE AXIS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. A
COMPENSATORY DOWNSTREAM NORTHWESTERLY FLOW RESULTS OVER NORTH DAKOTA
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. COUPLE OF RIDGE TOPPERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW MAY ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT...ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
ZONES. WILL CONTINUE TO LOOK AT THOSE TRENDS IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS.

EXPECT WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 80S...THEN LESS HUMID WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BUT
REMAINING WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WARMEST MONDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER 60S...FOLLOWED
BY MID TO UPPER 60S FOR LOWS TUESDAY MORNING IN EAST CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WITH THE WEST COOLING INTO THE UPPER 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
THEREAFTER WILL REMAIN AROUND 60F WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

DIURNAL VFR-MVFR CU FORMATION UNDERWAY WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED.
WILL SEE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE...DEVELOPING TODAY PERSISTING INTO TONIGHT. KEPT VCTS AT
ALL TERMINALS FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION. WILL ISSUE UPDATES AS NEEDED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

WILL MAINTAIN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS IS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NOW THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...WILL
BE POSSIBLE FOR THOSE LOCATIONS THAT HAVE SEEN SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THE PAST FEW DAYS. SOILS HAVE LITTLE TO NO
CAPACITY TO HOLD ADDITIONAL WATER...ENHANCING RUNOFF AND THE
POTENTIAL TO AGGRAVATE THE ONGOING OVERLAND FLOODING ACROSS THE
AREA.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR NDZ023-025-036-037-
046>048-050-051.

&&

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...NH
HYDROLOGY...NH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
153 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

NDZ023-025-036-037-046>048-050-051-231900-
WELLS-FOSTER-KIDDER-STUTSMAN-EMMONS-LOGAN-LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-
DICKEY-
153 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY. MULTIPLE PERIODS
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR FLASH FLOODING.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND
EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BISMARCK OR TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT.

NDZ004-011-012-231900-
BOTTINEAU-WARD-MCHENRY-
153 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. FOR DETAILS GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BIS. CLICK ON THE
RIVERS AND LAKES TAB NEAR THE TOP OF THE MAIN PAGE.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND
EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BISMARCK OR TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT.

NDZ001>003-005-009-010-013-017>022-031>035-040>045-231900-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-
DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-
MORTON-BURLEIGH-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-
153 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013 /1253 PM MDT SAT JUN 22 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND
EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BISMARCK OR TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT.

HEINERT/SIMOSKO