Severe Thunderstorm Warning 59, NWS Bismarck, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
952 PM CDT FRI JUN 21 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT FRI JUN 21 2013

CLOUDS AND CONVECTION FARTHER SOUTH APPEARED TO BE A LIMITING
FACTOR FOR CONVECTION THIS EVENING. CURRENTLY THE NORTHWEST AND
FAR NORTH CENTRAL APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN AREAS OF FOCUS LATE THIS
EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE LIFTING THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA.
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY WITH HIGHEST POPS IN THESE AREAS
AND LOWER POPS ELSEWHERE. BUT WITH UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINING
ALOFT CANNOT PULL POPS COMPLETELY. CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT FOG
DEVELOPMENT AS WELL...BUT WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AROUND AND NEAR
ZERO TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS ALREADY...WILL KEEP AREAS OF FOG IN THE
FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. NO CHANGES
TO TEMPERATURES...OTHER THAN POPULATE WITH LATEST SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER GRIDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 721 PM CDT FRI JUN 21 2013

QUICK UPDATE FOR EVENING POPS. NORTH A LOT OF CONVECTION OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. ONE AREA OF
CONVECTION FIRED IN NORTHERN BURLEIGH COUNTY...BUT HAS RECENTLY
DISSIPATED QUICKLY AS IT MOVED INTO A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE FROM
WELLS COUNTY NORTHWARD. WILL TONE DOWN POPS THIS EVENING TO MAINLY
SLIGHT CHANCE...EXCEPT ALONG THE FAR WEST WHERE CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN MONTANA. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE POP CHANCES
ALONE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD BUT WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK LATER
THIS EVENING. DID HAVE SOME STRONG WINDS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST
CWA DUE TO WAKE LOW FORMED FROM CONVECTION EARLIER OVER EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. WINDS HERE HAVE ALSO DIMINISHED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT FRI JUN 21 2013

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE POSSIBLE SEVERE CONVECTION AND HEAVY
RAIN THROUGH SATURDAY.

CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A RIDGE
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY RESULTS IN STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. STRONGEST CONVECTION RIGHT NOW IS OVER
SOUTH DAKOTA NEAR A STATIONARY FRONT/SFC TROUGH. EARLIER SEVERE
STORMS OVER NORTH DAKOTA QUICKLY WEAKENED AFTER 18Z AS FORCING
ALOFT DIMINISHED.

ADDITIONAL ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT STILL EXPECTED AND WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT THUNDERSTORM
PROBABILITIES AS IS FOR NOW. BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FROM SOUTHWEST ND NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
DEVILS LAKE BASIN WHERE THE BEST 0-6KM WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE COLOCATED.

STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE SOUTH TO NORTH TONIGHT AS FORCING
MOVES NORTH INTO CANADA. EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS AND
FOG WEST AND CENTRAL TONIGHT.

REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION ON SATURDAY AS ADDITIONAL WAVES ADVECT
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT FRI JUN 21 2013

UPPER TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY WITH MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A BIT OF A BREAK SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH
A PROGRESSIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW PERSISTING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT
A COUPLE MORE SHORTWAVES TO SHIFT THROUGH WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF
FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...STILL
EXPECTING AN UPPER RIDGE TO DEVELOP OVER THE FOUR CORNERS DURING THE
PERIOD WITH THE RIDGE AXIS AMPLIFYING INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. A
COMPENSATORY NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THERE COULD BE A COUPLE OF RIDGE TOPPERS
SLIDING THROUGH RESULTING IN A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY IN EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE WEST REMAINING MORE
STABLE AND DRIER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT FRI JUN 21 2013

VFR CEILINGS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA AT 0230Z. WITH LITTLE
CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM TIMING AND PLACEMENT DID NOT INCLUDE A
MENTION OF THUNDER...EXCEPT FOR A AT WILLISTION LATE THIS EVENING.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR AT KDIK AND KMOT LATE THIS EVENING FOR A
POSSIBLE MENTION OF THUNDER. THINKING OTHER TAF SITES SHOULD BE
GOOD THROUGH THE EVENING WITH NO MENTION OF THUNDER. DID BRING
MVFR-IFR CEILINGS TO ALL TAF SITES AFTER 06Z AND THROUGH AROUND
16-18Z SATURDAY WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND. THEN VFR
AT ALL TAF SITES AFTER 18Z SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT FRI JUN 21 2013

WILL MAINTAIN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS IS WITH CONTINUED CHANCES
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NOW THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE FOR THOSE LOCATIONS THAT HAVE
SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
EVENING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. SOILS HAVE LITTLE TO NO CAPACITY TO HOLD ADDITIONAL
WATER...ENHANCING RUNOFF AND THE POTENTIAL TO AGGRAVATE THE
ONGOING OVERLAND FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA. A COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR NDZ023-025-036-037-
046>048-050-051.

&&

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TWH
HYDROLOGY...NH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
745 PM CDT FRI JUN 21 2013

NDZ023-025-036-037-046>048-050-051-230045-
WELLS-FOSTER-KIDDER-STUTSMAN-EMMONS-LOGAN-LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-
DICKEY-
745 PM CDT FRI JUN 21 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY. MULTIPLE PERIODS
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR FLASH FLOODING.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT. ANY STORMS THAT
WOULD DEVELOP WILL CONTAIN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

EXPECT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER
VALLEY IS MOST AT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

NDZ004-011-012-230045-
BOTTINEAU-WARD-MCHENRY-
745 PM CDT FRI JUN 21 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. FOR DETAILS GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BIS. CLICK ON THE
RIVERS AND LAKES TAB NEAR THE TOP OF THE MAIN PAGE.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

EXPECT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH HEAVY RAIN
AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

NDZ001>003-005-009-010-013-017>022-031>035-040>045-230045-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-
DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-
MORTON-BURLEIGH-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-
745 PM CDT FRI JUN 21 2013 /645 PM MDT FRI JUN 21 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

EXPECT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH HEAVY RAIN
AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

TWH

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>