Severe Thunderstorm Warning 160, NWS Bismarck, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
954 PM CDT SUN JUL 21 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 953 PM CDT SUN JUL 21 2013

UPDATE TO REMOVE ALL COUNTIES FROM THE TORNADO WATCH AND COMPLETELY
CANCEL THE WATCH. UPDATES FORTHCOMING. EXPECT THE REST OF THE
NIGHT TO DRY OUT WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER COMMENCING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 827 PM  CDT SUN JUL 21 2013

UPDATE TO REMOVE MOST OF OUR NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
COUNTIES. PORTIONS OF OUR EAST CENTRAL ZONES REMAIN IN A TORNADO
WATCH UNTIL 10 PM CDT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 714 PM CDT SUN JUL 21 2013

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO EXPAND THE TORNADO WATCH SOUTHEAST TO
INCLUDE THE JAMES RIVER BASIN. ALSO UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE
THE WATCH FROM THE WESTERN COUNTIES. ALSO ADJUSTED HOURLY POPS
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR OBS AND TRENDS. THE UPDATED GRIDDED AND
TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 431 PM CDT SUN JUL 21 2013

THIS UPDATE TO ADD SOUTH CENTRAL ND INCLUDING BURLEIGH...MORTON
AND KIDDER COUNTIES TO WATCH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 416 PM CDT SUN JUL 21 2013

THIS UPDATE TO CLEAR TORNADO WATCH FROM FAR NORTHWEST ND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SUN JUL 21 2013

MAIN CONCERNS THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE SEVERE STORMS. LATEST
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN
INTO EASTERN MONTANA. A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE WAS ACTIVELY SUPPORTING A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BETWEEN WILLISTON AND ESTEVAN
SASK...MOVING EAST WITH TIME ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL. LESS ACTIVE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SOUTH CENTRAL...BUT THREAT STILL EXISTS THIS
EVENING. LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS/MCS WILL EXIT THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW WITH COOLER AND DRY WEATHER
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SUN JUL 21 2013

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS.  MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL FEATURE A
H5 RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WITH A TROUGH IN THE
EAST.  THIS WILL PLACE THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...WITH PERIODIC SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA.

A SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED FROM NORTH CENTRAL
MONTANA INTO EASTERN WYOMING MONDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS COULD PROVIDE
THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NORTH DAKOTA ON
TUESDAY...BUT QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY NIGHT.  THERE IS
RELATIVE AGREEMENT AMONGST THE SHORT TERM MODELS THAT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT THOUGH THE PLACEMENT OF THE HIGHER
CHANCES IS NOT AS CLEAR.  THE GFS AND ECMWF FAVOR THE NORTH AND EAST
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND THIS IS ALSO IN LINE WITH THE
CURRENT FORECAST.

A STRONGER WAVE MOVES ACROSS LATE IN THE WEEK...TOWARDS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.  IT ALSO APPEARS A WARM FRONT SETS UP ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WHICH SHOULD SHOULD BRING A MORE
ORGANIZED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK.

THE GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE A BIT TOWARDS THE WEEKEND...THOUGH THE
GENERAL IDEA IS THE H5 RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TALKING HOLD ON SATURDAY.  THIS SHOULD HELP DRY IT OUT
TO SOME EXTENT ON SATURDAY AND WILL STICK WITH SPOTTY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS.  ANOTHER BOUNDARY BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS PARTS OF MONTANA
INTO CENTRAL WYOMING FOR SUNDAY WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
POTENTIALLY INCREASING AGAIN IN THE WEST JUST BEYOND LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 714 PM CDT SUN JUL 21 2013

MVFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER KBIS FOR THE
NEXT HOUR. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPACT KJMS BETWEEN 02Z-04Z
THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...TM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
952 PM CDT SUN JUL 21 2013

NDZ001>003-005-009>011-013-017>023-025-031>037-040>046-230300-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-PIERCE-
MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-FOSTER-
GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-STUTSMAN-
SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-
952 PM CDT SUN JUL 21 2013 /852 PM MDT SUN JUL 21 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

NDZ004-012-230300-
BOTTINEAU-MCHENRY-
952 PM CDT SUN JUL 21 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE ON THE SOURIS RIVER FROM TOWNER THROUGH
WESTHOPE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

NDZ047-048-050-051-230300-
LOGAN-LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
952 PM CDT SUN JUL 21 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA WILL BE ENDING BY
MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

JP MARTIN

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
849 PM CDT SUN JUL 21 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0728 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 NE BISMARCK           46.83N 100.75W
07/21/2013  M1.21 INCH       BURLEIGH           ND   COCORAHS

&&

KSIMOSKO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
857 PM CDT SUN JUL 21 2013

NDZ046-050-220230-
EMMONS-MCINTOSH-
857 PM CDT SUN JUL 21 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTH DAKOTA AND
SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER...

AT 851 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR HULL...OR 65 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BISMARCK...
MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WILL ACCOMPANY THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  HAGUE...
  ZEELAND...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS
TREES. HEAVY RAINFALL CAN LEAD TO FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL
THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

HEINERT

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1043 PM CDT SUN JUL 21 2013

NDZ047-220415-
LOGAN ND-
1043 PM CDT SUN JUL 21 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER LOGAN COUNTY...

AT 1038 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM BURNSTAD TO 9 MILES
NORTHEAST OF BURNSTAD...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND
FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF CENTRAL LOGAN COUNTY.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING

AYD