Severe Thunderstorm Warning 156, NWS Bismarck, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
437 PM CDT SUN JUL 21 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 431 PM CDT SUN JUL 21 2013

THIS UPDATE TO ADD SOUTH CENTRAL ND INCLUDING BURLEIGH...MORTON
AND KIDDER COUNTIES TO WATCH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 416 PM CDT SUN JUL 21 2013

THIS UPDATE TO CLEAR TORNADO WATCH FROM FAR NORTHWEST ND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SUN JUL 21 2013

MAIN CONCERNS THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE SEVERE STORMS. LATEST
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN
INTO EASTERN MONTANA. A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE WAS ACTIVELY SUPPORTING A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BETWEEN WILLISTON AND ESTEVAN
SASK...MOVING EAST WITH TIME ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL. LESS ACTIVE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SOUTH CENTRAL...BUT THREAT STILL EXISTS THIS
EVENING. LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS/MCS WILL EXIT THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW WITH COOLER AND DRY WEATHER
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SUN JUL 21 2013

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS.  MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL FEATURE A
H5 RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WITH A TROUGH IN THE
EAST.  THIS WILL PLACE THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...WITH PERIODIC SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA.

A SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED FROM NORTH CENTRAL
MONTANA INTO EASTERN WYOMING MONDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS COULD PROVIDE
THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NORTH DAKOTA ON
TUESDAY...BUT QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY NIGHT.  THERE IS
RELATIVE AGREEMENT AMONGST THE SHORT TERM MODELS THAT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT THOUGH THE PLACEMENT OF THE HIGHER
CHANCES IS NOT AS CLEAR.  THE GFS AND ECMWF FAVOR THE NORTH AND EAST
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND THIS IS ALSO IN LINE WITH THE
CURRENT FORECAST.

A STRONGER WAVE MOVES ACROSS LATE IN THE WEEK...TOWARDS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.  IT ALSO APPEARS A WARM FRONT SETS UP ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WHICH SHOULD SHOULD BRING A MORE
ORGANIZED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK.

THE GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE A BIT TOWARDS THE WEEKEND...THOUGH THE
GENERAL IDEA IS THE H5 RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TALKING HOLD ON SATURDAY.  THIS SHOULD HELP DRY IT OUT
TO SOME EXTENT ON SATURDAY AND WILL STICK WITH SPOTTY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS.  ANOTHER BOUNDARY BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS PARTS OF MONTANA
INTO CENTRAL WYOMING FOR SUNDAY WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
POTENTIALLY INCREASING AGAIN IN THE WEST JUST BEYOND LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 431 PM CDT SUN JUL 21 2013

MAIN THREAT TO AVIATION WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS THIS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LINE OF STORMS NOW POISED TO MOVE THROUGH
KMOT-KBIS BETWEEN 22-01Z...THEN KJMS AFTER 02Z. NORTHWEST WINDS 20
TO 30 KTS WEST  OF THE  TROUGH AT KISN TIL 01Z. OTHERWISE VFR OUTSIDE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...WAA

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
536 PM CDT SUN JUL 21 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     HAIL             10 NW HEBRON            47.00N 102.20W
07/21/2013  E1.75 INCH       STARK              ND   PUBLIC

&&

KING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
542 PM CDT SUN JUL 21 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     1 E DEERING             48.40N 101.03W
07/21/2013                   MCHENRY            ND   PUBLIC

&&

KING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
553 PM CDT SUN JUL 21 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0551 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     3 N GRANVILLE           48.31N 100.84W
07/21/2013                   MCHENRY            ND   PUBLIC

            RELAYED BY 911 CALL CENTER.

&&

JP MARTIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
554 PM CDT SUN JUL 21 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0542 PM     TORNADO          7 NNW GRANVILLE         48.36N 100.90W
07/21/2013                   MCHENRY            ND   AIRPLANE PILOT

            AIRCRAFT REPORTS A SMALL TORNADO ON THE GROUND...
            NEARING HOUSES 6 TO 7 MILES NNW OF GRANVILLE

&&

KSIMOSKO

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