Alert archive / North Dakota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2013

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 155, NWS Bismarck, ND

July 21, 2013McHenry County, Pierce County, North Dakota

NWS Bismarck, ND issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 21, 2013, 6:39 PM CDT for McHenry County, Pierce County, North Dakota. It was in force for 66 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Jul 21, 2013, 6:39 PM CDT (23:39 UTC)
Expired: Jul 21, 2013, 7:45 PM CDT
In force: 66 min
Issued by: NWS Bismarck, ND
Area: Storm-based polygon
Tornado: Possible
Hail: 1.0 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties McHenry County, ND, Pierce County, ND

The radar

The Minot AFB radar (KMBX), 45 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:39 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jul 21, 2:43 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	7 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 12:00Z, 11.7 hours before the alert went out and 166 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 18 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -169 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 609 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 33 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 107 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 175 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 1.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Bismarck, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 21, 4:37 PM CDT, 2 hours 2 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 21, 4:37 PM CDT, 2 hours 2 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
437 PM CDT SUN JUL 21 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 431 PM CDT SUN JUL 21 2013

THIS UPDATE TO ADD SOUTH CENTRAL ND INCLUDING BURLEIGH...MORTON
AND KIDDER COUNTIES TO WATCH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 416 PM CDT SUN JUL 21 2013

THIS UPDATE TO CLEAR TORNADO WATCH FROM FAR NORTHWEST ND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SUN JUL 21 2013

MAIN CONCERNS THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE SEVERE STORMS. LATEST
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN
INTO EASTERN MONTANA. A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE WAS ACTIVELY SUPPORTING A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BETWEEN WILLISTON AND ESTEVAN
SASK...MOVING EAST WITH TIME ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL. LESS ACTIVE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SOUTH CENTRAL...BUT THREAT STILL EXISTS THIS
EVENING. LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS/MCS WILL EXIT THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW WITH COOLER AND DRY WEATHER
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SUN JUL 21 2013

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS.  MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL FEATURE A
H5 RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WITH A TROUGH IN THE
EAST.  THIS WILL PLACE THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...WITH PERIODIC SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA.

A SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED FROM NORTH CENTRAL
MONTANA INTO EASTERN WYOMING MONDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS COULD PROVIDE
THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NORTH DAKOTA ON
TUESDAY...BUT QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY NIGHT.  THERE IS
RELATIVE AGREEMENT AMONGST THE SHORT TERM MODELS THAT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT THOUGH THE PLACEMENT OF THE HIGHER
CHANCES IS NOT AS CLEAR.  THE GFS AND ECMWF FAVOR THE NORTH AND EAST
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND THIS IS ALSO IN LINE WITH THE
CURRENT FORECAST.

A STRONGER WAVE MOVES ACROSS LATE IN THE WEEK...TOWARDS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.  IT ALSO APPEARS A WARM FRONT SETS UP ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WHICH SHOULD SHOULD BRING A MORE
ORGANIZED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK.

THE GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE A BIT TOWARDS THE WEEKEND...THOUGH THE
GENERAL IDEA IS THE H5 RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TALKING HOLD ON SATURDAY.  THIS SHOULD HELP DRY IT OUT
TO SOME EXTENT ON SATURDAY AND WILL STICK WITH SPOTTY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS.  ANOTHER BOUNDARY BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS PARTS OF MONTANA
INTO CENTRAL WYOMING FOR SUNDAY WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
POTENTIALLY INCREASING AGAIN IN THE WEST JUST BEYOND LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 431 PM CDT SUN JUL 21 2013

MAIN THREAT TO AVIATION WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS THIS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LINE OF STORMS NOW POISED TO MOVE THROUGH
KMOT-KBIS BETWEEN 22-01Z...THEN KJMS AFTER 02Z. NORTHWEST WINDS 20
TO 30 KTS WEST  OF THE  TROUGH AT KISN TIL 01Z. OTHERWISE VFR OUTSIDE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...WAA

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 21, 3:00 PM CDT, 3 hours 39 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
300 PM CDT SUN JUL 21 2013

NDZ004-012-222000-
BOTTINEAU-MCHENRY-
300 PM CDT SUN JUL 21 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAIL LARGER THAN GOLF BALL...DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE ON THE SOURIS RIVER FROM TOWNER THROUGH
WESTHOPE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE ARE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

NDZ001>003-005-009>011-013-017>023-025-222000-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-PIERCE-
MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-FOSTER-
300 PM CDT SUN JUL 21 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED GENERALLY NORTH OF I-94 THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH LESSER CHANCES SOUTH. HAIL POTENTIALLY
LARGER THAN GOLF BALL...DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE FAR WEST.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

NDZ031>037-040>048-050-051-222000-
GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-STUTSMAN-
SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-LA MOURE-
MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
300 PM CDT SUN JUL 21 2013 /200 PM MDT SUN JUL 21 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...
GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 85. LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS AND
AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES IN THE WEST. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WAA/CWK

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 21, 5:28 PM CDT, 1 hour 11 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
528 PM CDT SUN JUL 21 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0524 PM     HAIL             HEBRON                  46.90N 102.05W
07/21/2013  M1.75 INCH       MORTON             ND   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

KSIMOSKO

Local storm report, Jul 21, 5:32 PM CDT, 1 hour 7 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
532 PM CDT SUN JUL 21 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0527 PM     HAIL             HEBRON                  46.90N 102.05W
07/21/2013  E2.75 INCH       MORTON             ND   PUBLIC

&&

KING

Local storm report, Jul 21, 5:36 PM CDT, 1 hour 3 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
536 PM CDT SUN JUL 21 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     HAIL             10 NW HEBRON            47.00N 102.20W
07/21/2013  E1.75 INCH       STARK              ND   PUBLIC

&&

KING

Local storm report, Jul 21, 5:42 PM CDT, 57 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
542 PM CDT SUN JUL 21 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     1 E DEERING             48.40N 101.03W
07/21/2013                   MCHENRY            ND   PUBLIC

&&

KING

Local storm report, Jul 21, 5:53 PM CDT, 46 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
553 PM CDT SUN JUL 21 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0551 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     3 N GRANVILLE           48.31N 100.84W
07/21/2013                   MCHENRY            ND   PUBLIC

            RELAYED BY 911 CALL CENTER.

&&

JP MARTIN

Local storm report, Jul 21, 5:54 PM CDT, 45 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
554 PM CDT SUN JUL 21 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0542 PM     TORNADO          7 NNW GRANVILLE         48.36N 100.90W
07/21/2013                   MCHENRY            ND   AIRPLANE PILOT

            AIRCRAFT REPORTS A SMALL TORNADO ON THE GROUND...
            NEARING HOUSES 6 TO 7 MILES NNW OF GRANVILLE

&&

KSIMOSKO

The office that day

Everything else NWS Bismarck, ND issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 21, 2:51 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Dunn, McKenzie	54 min
Jul 21, 3:07 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	McKenzie, Mountrail, Williams	68 min
Jul 21, 3:19 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Mountrail, Williams	26 min
Jul 21, 3:24 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Burke, Ward	66 min
Jul 21, 3:39 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Mountrail	66 min
Jul 21, 3:44 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Billings, Dunn, McKenzie	61 min
Jul 21, 4:06 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	McKenzie, McLean, Mountrail	54 min
Jul 21, 4:41 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	BIS	Mountrail	6 hr
Jul 21, 4:45 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Dunn, Mercer, Morton, Oliver	60 min
Jul 21, 4:58 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	McLean, Mountrail, Ward	62 min
Jul 21, 5:07 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Dunn, Mercer, Morton, Stark	38 min
Jul 21, 5:39 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	BIS	McHenry	51 min
Jul 21, 5:43 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Grant, Morton	62 min
Jul 21, 5:54 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	BIS	Grant, Morton	36 min
Jul 21, 6:03 PM CDT	Tornado Warning Tornado observed	BIS	McHenry	42 min
Jul 21, 6:28 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	BIS	Grant, Morton	32 min
Jul 21, 6:38 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Burleigh, Grant, Morton, Oliver, Sioux	52 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Dakota, 2013 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2013

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.