Severe Thunderstorm Warning 152, NWS Bismarck, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
437 PM CDT SUN JUL 21 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 431 PM CDT SUN JUL 21 2013

THIS UPDATE TO ADD SOUTH CENTRAL ND INCLUDING BURLEIGH...MORTON
AND KIDDER COUNTIES TO WATCH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 416 PM CDT SUN JUL 21 2013

THIS UPDATE TO CLEAR TORNADO WATCH FROM FAR NORTHWEST ND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SUN JUL 21 2013

MAIN CONCERNS THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE SEVERE STORMS. LATEST
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN
INTO EASTERN MONTANA. A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE WAS ACTIVELY SUPPORTING A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BETWEEN WILLISTON AND ESTEVAN
SASK...MOVING EAST WITH TIME ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL. LESS ACTIVE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SOUTH CENTRAL...BUT THREAT STILL EXISTS THIS
EVENING. LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS/MCS WILL EXIT THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW WITH COOLER AND DRY WEATHER
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SUN JUL 21 2013

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS.  MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL FEATURE A
H5 RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WITH A TROUGH IN THE
EAST.  THIS WILL PLACE THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...WITH PERIODIC SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA.

A SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED FROM NORTH CENTRAL
MONTANA INTO EASTERN WYOMING MONDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS COULD PROVIDE
THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NORTH DAKOTA ON
TUESDAY...BUT QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY NIGHT.  THERE IS
RELATIVE AGREEMENT AMONGST THE SHORT TERM MODELS THAT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT THOUGH THE PLACEMENT OF THE HIGHER
CHANCES IS NOT AS CLEAR.  THE GFS AND ECMWF FAVOR THE NORTH AND EAST
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND THIS IS ALSO IN LINE WITH THE
CURRENT FORECAST.

A STRONGER WAVE MOVES ACROSS LATE IN THE WEEK...TOWARDS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.  IT ALSO APPEARS A WARM FRONT SETS UP ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WHICH SHOULD SHOULD BRING A MORE
ORGANIZED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK.

THE GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE A BIT TOWARDS THE WEEKEND...THOUGH THE
GENERAL IDEA IS THE H5 RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TALKING HOLD ON SATURDAY.  THIS SHOULD HELP DRY IT OUT
TO SOME EXTENT ON SATURDAY AND WILL STICK WITH SPOTTY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS.  ANOTHER BOUNDARY BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS PARTS OF MONTANA
INTO CENTRAL WYOMING FOR SUNDAY WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
POTENTIALLY INCREASING AGAIN IN THE WEST JUST BEYOND LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 431 PM CDT SUN JUL 21 2013

MAIN THREAT TO AVIATION WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS THIS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LINE OF STORMS NOW POISED TO MOVE THROUGH
KMOT-KBIS BETWEEN 22-01Z...THEN KJMS AFTER 02Z. NORTHWEST WINDS 20
TO 30 KTS WEST  OF THE  TROUGH AT KISN TIL 01Z. OTHERWISE VFR OUTSIDE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...WAA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
300 PM CDT SUN JUL 21 2013

NDZ004-012-222000-
BOTTINEAU-MCHENRY-
300 PM CDT SUN JUL 21 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAIL LARGER THAN GOLF BALL...DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE ON THE SOURIS RIVER FROM TOWNER THROUGH
WESTHOPE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE ARE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

NDZ001>003-005-009>011-013-017>023-025-222000-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-PIERCE-
MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-FOSTER-
300 PM CDT SUN JUL 21 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED GENERALLY NORTH OF I-94 THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH LESSER CHANCES SOUTH. HAIL POTENTIALLY
LARGER THAN GOLF BALL...DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE FAR WEST.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

NDZ031>037-040>048-050-051-222000-
GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-STUTSMAN-
SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-LA MOURE-
MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
300 PM CDT SUN JUL 21 2013 /200 PM MDT SUN JUL 21 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...
GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 85. LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS AND
AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES IN THE WEST. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WAA/CWK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
431 PM CDT SUN JUL 21 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0429 PM     TSTM WND GST     NEW TOWN                47.98N 102.49W
07/21/2013  E60 MPH          MOUNTRAIL          ND   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

KSIMOSKO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
440 PM CDT SUN JUL 21 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     HAIL             NW KILLDEER             47.37N 102.75W
07/21/2013  E0.75 INCH       DUNN               ND   CO-OP OBSERVER

            MOSTLY PEA. A FEW PENNY.

&&

ABELING

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
443 PM CDT SUN JUL 21 2013

NDZ003-004-011-012-212230-
BOTTINEAU ND-MCHENRY ND-RENVILLE ND-WARD ND-
443 PM CDT SUN JUL 21 2013

...THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AT
440 PM CDT...

AT 438 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF
MOHALL TO HARTLAND...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  THOSE ALONG A LINE FROM MOHALL TO HARTLAND.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY....AND A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AS
WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS....FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND
POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

HEAVY RAIN MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED ROADWAY.

MARTIN/SCHECK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
455 PM CDT SUN JUL 21 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     HALLIDAY                47.35N 102.34W
07/21/2013                   DUNN               ND   CO-OP OBSERVER

            FUNNEL WAS SPOTTED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE
            GROUND

&&

KSIMOSKO

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