Red Flag Warning 3, NWS Bismarck, ND

Adams County, ND, Billings County, ND, Bottineau County, ND, Bowman County, ND, Burke County, ND, Burleigh County, ND, Dickey County, ND, Divide County, ND, Dunn County, ND, Emmons County, ND, Foster County, ND, Golden Valley County, ND, Grant County, ND, Hettinger County, ND, Kidder County, ND, LaMoure County, ND, Logan County, ND, McHenry County, ND, McIntosh County, ND, McKenzie County, ND, McLean County, ND, Mercer County, ND, Morton County, ND, Mountrail County, ND, Oliver County, ND, Pierce County, ND, Renville County, ND, Rolette County, ND, Sheridan County, ND, Sioux County, ND, Slope County, ND, Stark County, ND, Stutsman County, ND, Ward County, ND, Wells County, ND, Williams County, ND

578 
WWUS83 KBIS 131414
RFWBIS

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
914 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING FOR ALL
OF WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH TUESDAY LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...

.A RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL COUNTIES IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HIGHS IN THE
80S TO AROUND 90 ARE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH AND AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY OF 15-20 PERCENT. WITH DORMANT VEGETATION...THESE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT RAPID FIRE GROWTH SHOULD A FIRE IGNITE.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH ALSO CONTINUES FOR MOST OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FROM LATE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING. THE WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED NORTHWARD AND NOW
INCLUDES ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A STRONG COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE ONCE AGAIN FORECAST TO BE IN THE TEENS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND INCREASE TO 30-35 PERCENT ACROSS
THE NORTH. EVEN WITH THE HIGHER HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE NORTH...THE
VERY STRONG WINDS ARE PUSHING THE FIRE DANGER INDEX INTO THE
EXTREME CATEGORY ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE
STATE. THE STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS...MAY
LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ANY FIRE STARTED COULD
QUICKLY BECOME UNCONTROLLABLE.

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-132215-
/O.CON.KBIS.FW.W.0003.130513T1800Z-130514T0100Z/
/O.CON.KBIS.FW.A.0004.130514T1700Z-130515T0200Z/
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
914 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2013 /814 AM MDT MON MAY 13 2013/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/
THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR STRONG
WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR LOW HUMIDITY...VERY STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...AND DRY FUELS FOR WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...

* AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 001 DIVIDE...FIRE WEATHER 
  ZONE 002 BURKE...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 003 RENVILLE...FIRE WEATHER 
  ZONE 004 BOTTINEAU...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 005 ROLETTE...FIRE 
  WEATHER ZONE 009 WILLIAMS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 010 MOUNTRAIL...
  FIRE WEATHER ZONE 011 WARD...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 012 MCHENRY...
  FIRE WEATHER ZONE 013 PIERCE...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 017 
  MCKENZIE...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 018 DUNN...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 019 
  MERCER...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 020 OLIVER...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 021 
  MCLEAN...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 022 SHERIDAN...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 
  023 WELLS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 025 FOSTER...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 
  031 GOLDEN VALLEY... FIRE WEATHER ZONE 032 BILLINGS...FIRE 
  WEATHER ZONE 033 STARK... FIRE WEATHER ZONE 034 MORTON...FIRE 
  WEATHER ZONE 035 BURLEIGH... FIRE WEATHER ZONE 036 KIDDER...
  FIRE WEATHER ZONE 037 STUTSMAN... FIRE WEATHER ZONE 040 
  SLOPE...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 041 HETTINGER... FIRE WEATHER ZONE 
  042 GRANT...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 043 BOWMAN...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 
  044 ADAMS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 045 SIOUX...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 
  046 EMMONS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 047 LOGAN...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 
  048 LA MOURE...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 050 MCINTOSH AND FIRE WEATHER 
  ZONE 051 DICKEY.

* WINDS...WEST 25 TO 30 MPH TODAY. WEST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS
  UP TO 50 MPH TUESDAY.

* TIMING...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THEN AGAIN FROM 
  LATE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. 

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 15 PERCENT.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 TODAY. FROM THE UPPER
  60S TO THE UPPER 70S TUESDAY.

* IMPACTS...RAPID FIRE GROWTH AND UNCONTROLLED FIRES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG
WARNINGS.

&&

$$
WAA

512 
WWUS83 KBIS 132054
RFWBIS

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
354 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING FOR ALL
OF WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...

...RED FLAG WARNING TUESDAY LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...

.A RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL COUNTIES IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HIGHS IN THE
80S TO AROUND 90 ARE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH AND AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY OF 15-20 PERCENT. WITH DORMANT VEGETATION...THESE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT RAPID FIRE GROWTH SHOULD A FIRE
IGNITE.

THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING 
FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FROM LATE TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE
ONCE AGAIN FORECAST TO BE IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND INCREASE TO 30-35 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTH. EVEN WITH
THE HIGHER HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE NORTH...THE VERY STRONG WINDS ARE
PUSHING THE FIRE DANGER INDEX INTO THE EXTREME CATEGORY ACROSS ALL
BUT THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE. THE STRONG WINDS
COMBINED WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS...WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. ANY FIRE STARTED COULD QUICKLY BECOME
UNCONTROLLABLE.

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-140500-
/O.UPG.KBIS.FW.A.0004.130514T1700Z-130515T0200Z/
/O.NEW.KBIS.FW.W.0004.130514T1700Z-130515T0200Z/
/O.CON.KBIS.FW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-130514T0100Z/
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
354 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013 /254 PM MDT MON MAY 13 2013/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/
THIS EVENING FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR ALL
OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TO 9 PM
CDT /8 PM MDT/ TUESDAY FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BISMARCK HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...WHICH IS IN
EFFECT FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TO 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ TUESDAY.
THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 001 DIVIDE...FIRE WEATHER 
  ZONE 002 BURKE...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 003 RENVILLE...FIRE WEATHER 
  ZONE 004 BOTTINEAU...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 005 ROLETTE...FIRE 
  WEATHER ZONE 009 WILLIAMS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 010 MOUNTRAIL...
  FIRE WEATHER ZONE 011 WARD...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 012 MCHENRY...
  FIRE WEATHER ZONE 013 PIERCE...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 017 
  MCKENZIE...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 018 DUNN...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 019 
  MERCER...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 020 OLIVER...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 021 
  MCLEAN...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 022 SHERIDAN...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 
  023 WELLS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 025 FOSTER...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 
  031 GOLDEN VALLEY... FIRE WEATHER ZONE 032 BILLINGS...FIRE 
  WEATHER ZONE 033 STARK... FIRE WEATHER ZONE 034 MORTON...FIRE 
  WEATHER ZONE 035 BURLEIGH... FIRE WEATHER ZONE 036 KIDDER...
  FIRE WEATHER ZONE 037 STUTSMAN... FIRE WEATHER ZONE 040 
  SLOPE...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 041 HETTINGER... FIRE WEATHER ZONE 
  042 GRANT...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 043 BOWMAN...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 
  044 ADAMS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 045 SIOUX...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 
  046 EMMONS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 047 LOGAN...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 
  048 LA MOURE...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 050 MCINTOSH AND FIRE WEATHER 
  ZONE 051 DICKEY.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 20 TO 35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON....AND WEST 25 TO
  35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH.

* TIMING...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THEN AGAIN FROM 
  LATE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. 

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 16 PERCENT.

* TEMPERATURES...80 TO 90 THIS AFTERNOON...AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO
  UPPER 70S TUESDAY. 

* LIGHTNING...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF LAKE
  SAKAKAWEA MONDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER DRY LIGHTNING IS NOT EXPECTED. 

* IMPACTS...RAPID FIRE GROWTH AND UNCONTROLLED FIRES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.

&&

$$
WAA

999 
WWUS83 KBIS 140007
RFWBIS

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
707 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING FOR ALL OF WEST AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...

...RED FLAG WARNING TUESDAY LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...

.A RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL COUNTIES IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 15-20 PERCENT SUPPORT RAPID FIRE GROWTH
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH ABUNDANT DRY VEGETATION. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE GENERALLY NORTH OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA
TONIGHT. DRY LIGHTNING CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THESE STORMS
ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING
FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FROM LATE TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE
ONCE AGAIN FORECAST TO BE IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND INCREASE TO 30-35 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTH. EVEN
WITH THE HIGHER HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE NORTH...THE VERY STRONG
WINDS ARE PUSHING THE FIRE DANGER INDEX INTO THE EXTREME CATEGORY
ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE. THE STRONG
WINDS COMBINED WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS...WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ANY FIRE STARTED COULD QUICKLY BECOME
UNCONTROLLABLE.

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-140815-
/O.CON.KBIS.FW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-130514T0100Z/
/O.CON.KBIS.FW.W.0004.130514T1700Z-130515T0200Z/
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
707 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013 /607 PM MDT MON MAY 13 2013/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/
THIS EVENING FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR ALL
OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TO 9 PM
CDT /8 PM MDT/ TUESDAY FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...

* AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 001 DIVIDE...FIRE WEATHER 
  ZONE 002 BURKE...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 003 RENVILLE...FIRE WEATHER 
  ZONE 004 BOTTINEAU...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 005 ROLETTE...FIRE 
  WEATHER ZONE 009 WILLIAMS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 010 MOUNTRAIL...
  FIRE WEATHER ZONE 011 WARD...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 012 MCHENRY...
  FIRE WEATHER ZONE 013 PIERCE...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 017 
  MCKENZIE...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 018 DUNN...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 019 
  MERCER...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 020 OLIVER...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 021 
  MCLEAN...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 022 SHERIDAN...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 
  023 WELLS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 025 FOSTER...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 
  031 GOLDEN VALLEY... FIRE WEATHER ZONE 032 BILLINGS...FIRE 
  WEATHER ZONE 033 STARK... FIRE WEATHER ZONE 034 MORTON...FIRE 
  WEATHER ZONE 035 BURLEIGH... FIRE WEATHER ZONE 036 KIDDER...
  FIRE WEATHER ZONE 037 STUTSMAN... FIRE WEATHER ZONE 040 
  SLOPE...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 041 HETTINGER... FIRE WEATHER ZONE 
  042 GRANT...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 043 BOWMAN...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 
  044 ADAMS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 045 SIOUX...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 
  046 EMMONS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 047 LOGAN...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 
  048 LA MOURE...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 050 MCINTOSH AND FIRE WEATHER 
  ZONE 051 DICKEY.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH THIS EVENING...AND WEST 25 TO 35
  MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH.

* TIMING...THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THEN AGAIN FROM LATE
  TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 16 PERCENT.

* TEMPERATURES...80 TO 90 THIS EVENING..AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO
  UPPER 70S TUESDAY.

* LIGHTNING...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF LAKE
  SAKAKAWEA MONDAY NIGHT...DRY LIGHT MAY BE POSSIBLE.

* IMPACTS...RAPID FIRE GROWTH AND UNCONTROLLED FIRES.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.

&&

$$

AYD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
410 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

MAIN CONCERN THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS FIRE WEATHER. SEE DISCUSSION
IN FIRE WEATHER SECTION.

A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM A LOW IN NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TO THE
BORDER OF MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA...AND THE WYOMING/SOUTH DAKOTA
BORDER. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE AND
REACH THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY AROUND NOON.
SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME WEST/NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE IS PROGGED TO MIX OUT TO AROUND
H800...AND SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AT THE SURFACE SHOULD INCREASE TO
25 TO 30 MPH. WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL.

TONIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM EMERGES FROM ACROSS THE ROCKIES. A STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THE
LEADING EDGE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY REACHES WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY
AROUND MID-EVENING...AND SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE STATE BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE MONTANA/NORTH
DAKOTA BORDER BY MIDNIGHT...AND MOVES EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
STATE OVERNIGHT. THE BEST FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION...AND CAPE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...IS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE. A TENTH OF
AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES...BUT SOME LOCALES MAY SEE 2 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE FIRE
WEATHER AND WIND HEADLINES ON TUESDAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE PERIOD WITH AN INCREASED RISK OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR MORE DETAILED FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION.

ON TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
AT 12 UTC. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE MORNING...WITH STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
LATEST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT THE GFS/GEM HAVE COME MORE
IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF...TRACKING A STRONG BUT OPEN WAVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND INTO MANITOBA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THE
SUNDAY 00 UTC GFS CLOSED THIS LOW OFF AND WAS TRACKING IT ALONG THE
NORTH DAKOTA BORDER. HOWEVER...WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT A WINDY DAY
ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON TUESDAY. BOTH THE
NAM/GFS SHOW A STRONG FALL/RISE COUPLET TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WITH 40-50KT WINDS
EXTENDING WELL DOWN INTO THE MIXING LAYER. COUPLET IS NOT AS WELL
DEFINED ACROSS THE NORTH BUT 40-50KT WINDS ALSO EXTEND FAR INTO THE
MIXING LAYER...WITH 00 UTC MONDAY GFS INDICATING 50 KTS TO 875MB AT
KISN AT 18 UTC TUESDAY. WITH THE SURFACE LOW ALSO TRACKING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA...THE STRONGEST GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD LIE ACROSS THE
NORTH. LOOKING AT GFS/NAM BUFR DATA MOMENTUM TRANSFER FROM THE NAM
WOULD INDICATE STRONG WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. GFS IS A BIT STRONGER
INDICATING A GOOD POSSIBILITY OF HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA WINDS.
SEE NO NEED TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT WATCH. STILL ENOUGH
TIME FOR THE DAY SHIFT TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK BEFORE MAKING A DECISION
ON A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR TUESDAY...AND CERTAINLY ENOUGH INDICATORS
TO NOT EVEN THINK ABOUT DROPPING THE HIGH WIND WATCH.

ALTHOUGH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE HIGHER THAN MONDAY ACROSS
THE NORTH...THE VERY STRONG WINDS ARE PUSHING THE FIRE DANGER INDEX
INTO THE EXTREME CATEGORY ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...EVEN THE FAR NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES. THEREFORE WILL EXPAND
THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR TUESDAY NORTH TO INCLUDE ALL OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A QUIET DAY IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM
WITH A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL SUPPRESS ANY FIRE WEATHER ISSUES.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING DEVELOPING THE
SOUTHERN STEAM FLOW WILL TRACK FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASING RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE GFS IS QUICKER TO BRING THE LOW...COMPARED TO
THE ECMWF...BUT BOTH SUGGEST A WETTER REGIME OVER THE AREA WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A POSSIBILITY EACH DAY. WITH MODEL
DIFFERENCES...WILL UTILIZE A MODEL BLEND HERE WHICH CURRENTLY BRINGS
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY...AND CHANCE OF GREATER POPS FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY MORNING) ISSUED
AT 110 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

BROKEN CIRRUS CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MID CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION AHEAD OF AND BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING
EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN TO EASTERN MONTANA AND WYOMING. THIS TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 07Z/08Z AND APPROACH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY 12Z. EXPECT SOUTH WINDS TO INCREASE A BIT
AND BECOME WEST/SOUTHWEST AT KISN/KDIK BY AROUND 09Z...AND AT
KMOT/KBIS AROUND 12Z...AND AT KJMS BY AROUND 15Z. NORTHWEST WINDS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AT WESTERN TAF SITES
AROUND 15Z AND AT KJMS BY 18Z. WINDS DECREASING BY 00Z AND
BECOMING SOUTHERLY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE
TROUGH APPROACHES WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 06Z...BRINGING A CHANCE
OF LATE NIGHT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

FOR TODAY...
UPGRADING THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING TODAY...AND
ALSO ADDED THE REST OF THE COUNTIES OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. THE GRAND FORKS NWS ALSO ADDED EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
COUNTIES IN A RED FLAG AS WELL. THUS ALL COUNTIES IN NORTH DAKOTA
ARE IN A RED FLAG WARNING THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

THE LATEST RUN OF MODELS INDICATES STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO
30 MPH DEVELOPING BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
MIXES UP TO H800...THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO DROP AND
RESULTING IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THAT WOULD RANGE FROM AROUND
15 PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTH TO 20 PERCENT NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON
TO EARLY EVENING HOURS. PASTURES WITH DORMANT GRASSES REMAIN VERY
DRY...EVEN THOUGH THE BEGINNINGS OF GREENUP ARE EVIDENT IN THE WEST.
FIRE DANGER IS FORECAST TO REACH WELL INTO THE VERY HIGH CATEGORY
THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR TUESDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING VERY STRONG WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 45 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED MOST ANYWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES ARE
ONCE AGAIN IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA AND
INCREASE TO 30-35 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTH. EVEN WITH THE HIGHER
HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE NORTH...THE VERY STRONG WINDS ARE PUSHING
THE FIRE DANGER INDEX INTO THE EXTREME CATEGORY ACROSS ALL BUT THE
FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE CWA. THEREFORE WILL EXPAND THE CURRENT
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR TUESDAY NORTH TO INCLUDE THE NORTHERN TIER
COUNTIES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM
CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-
031>037-040>048-050-051.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-
051.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
NDZ003-004-011-012-019>022-034-035-042-045-046.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
NDZ001-002-009-010-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR NDZ005-013-023-025-036-037-047.

&&

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...JV
FIRE WEATHER...JV/TWH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1012 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013

NDZ004-012-140315-
BOTTINEAU-MCHENRY-
1012 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGHOUT THE LOWER SOURIS
BASIN. FOR DETAILED INFORMATION IN YOUR AREA...VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BISMARCK. FOR INFORMATION ON RIVER STAGES AND
FORECASTS CLICK ON THE RIVERS AND LAKES TAB NEAR THE TOP OF THE
MAIN PAGE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY...AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ON
TUESDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN VERY HIGH TO EXTREME
FIRE DANGER EACH DAY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
LATE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING FOR MCHENRY COUNTY.

A HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF WEST AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED WINDS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH AND PEAK GUSTS TO
60 MPH. PLEASE SEE WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BISMARCK FOR DETAILS.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

NDZ005-013-022-023-025-140315-
ROLETTE-PIERCE-SHERIDAN-WELLS-FOSTER-
1012 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY...AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ON
TUESDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN VERY HIGH TO EXTREME
FIRE DANGER EACH DAY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BISMARCK
CONCERNING DETAILS OF FIRE WEATHER THREATS.

A HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF WEST AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED WINDS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH AND PEAK GUSTS TO
60 MPH. PLEASE SEE WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BISMARCK FOR DETAILS.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

NDZ001>003-009>011-017>021-031>037-040>048-050-051-140315-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-MCKENZIE-DUNN-
MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-
KIDDER-STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-
LOGAN-LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
1012 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013 /912 PM MDT SUN MAY 12 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY...AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY
BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER EACH
DAY. EXTREME FIRE DANGER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ON TUESDAY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS
IN EFFECT FOR MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING...AND AGAIN
TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BISMARCK CONCERNING DETAILS OF FIRE WEATHER
THREATS.

A HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF WEST AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED WINDS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH AND PEAK GUSTS TO
60 MPH. PLEASE SEE WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BISMARCK FOR DETAILS.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

AYD