Severe Thunderstorm Warning 112, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
138 PM EDT MON SEP 2 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO NY AND
PA TODAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL...GUSTY
WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN. THE FRONT WILL STALL JUST TO OUR EAST ON
TUESDAY, WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OVER OUR REGION. COOLER
AND DRIER WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOON UPDATE...

MORNING WRAP UP AND FLOOD POTENTIAL...QUICK UPDATE WITH A BUSY MORNING BEHIND
US AND AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON EXPECTED. AREA OF CONFECTION FROM THIS
MORNING IS JUST ABOUT TO CLEAR OUR CWA. FLOODING EARLIER ACROSS
SCHUYLER COUNTY NEAR MECKLENBURG IS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH. A CALL
TO THE 911 CENTER LET US KNOW THAT MOST OF THE MAJOR ROADS ARE NOW
OPEN AGAIN BUT STILL ENOUGH ISSUES ON SECONDARY ROADS TO KEEP THE
FLASH FLOOD WARNING UP THROUGH 1245 PM BEFORE LETTING IT EXPIRE.
THIS AREA ALONG WITH FARTHER EAST THROUGH NORTHERN BROOME...AND
PARTS OF CHENANGO COUNTY...ALONG WITH WESTERN LUZERNE (FROM LAST
NIGHTS RAIN) WILL HAVE TO BE CAREFULLY WATCHED FOR FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL DUE TO THE SATURATED GROUND. REFER TO THE GRAPHICAL HWO
N OUR WEBSITE (WEATHER.GOV/BGM CLICK ON HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
AT THE TOP THEN FLOODING) TO SEE THE AREAS OF CONCERN. IS IT IMPORTANT
TO NOTE THAT IT WAS THE RATE OF RAINFALL (1.5"+ IN LESS THAN AN
HOUR) THAT LIKELY CAUSED THE PROBLEM. THE STORM TOTAL FROM KBGM
WAS JUST RESET AS IT WAS A RUNNING TOTAL FOR MORE THAN 24 HOURS
AND WE WANTED TO HAVE A CLEAN SLATE FOR THIS AFTERNOON'S
CONVECTION.

AFTERNOON SEVERE THREAT...ISOLATED STORMS HAVE ALREADY POPPED UP
ACROSS BRADFORD COUNTY PA WITH A DECENT CORE ALOFT (HAIL) AND
BACK BUILDING TENDENCIES (FLASH FLOOD THREAT). MEANWHILE MORE CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO FIRE OVER WNY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WIND SHEAR IS
THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR AT AROUND 25 KTS FOR 0-6 KM SHEAR.
WE HAVE PLENTY OF DYNAMICAL FORCING WITH THE SURFACE FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL TROF SWINGING THROUGH TO COMPENSATE FOR THE WEAKER
SHEAR. IN ADDITION SBCAPES ARE OVER 2000 J/KG THANKS TO INCREASING
SUNSHINE AND A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT. OUR LOCAL SEVERE WEATHER CHECKLIST
POINTS TO A HAIL DAY WITH VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS AND
STRONG MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WITH HAIL BEING THE NUMBER 1
THREAT...WIND IS NOT FAR BEHIND DUE TO THE DRY AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS AND WE MENTIONED FLASH FLOODING THREAT ABOVE. EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCT. CONVECTION NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN BKN LINES OF
STORMS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z OVER THE FINGER LAKES BEFORE
MOVING SOUTH AND EAST. THE HRRR AND ARW SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE ON THIS SCENARIO IF YOU WANT A GRAPHICAL VIEW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR EAST ON TUESDAY AS UL TROF SAGS
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF ONTARIO AND INTO NORTHERN NY. DESPITE DRY AIR
ADVECTION, THE PRESENCE OF THE TROF WILL KEEP A FEW SHOWERS OVER
FA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

BY EARLY WEDNESDAY, WE FINALLY GET ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE TROF
AXIS. PRECIP WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TO THE COAST, WHILE SKIES WILL
BEGIN TO CLEAR OVER NY/PA. THE COOL POOL ALOFT WILL BE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD, KEEPING TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF THE FA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...
NO CHGS NEEDED TO LONG TERM AT THIS TIME AS UL RIDGE HOLDS ACRS
WRN U.S. THRU SUNDAY BEFORE STARTING TO FLATTEN OUT EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

250 PM UPDATE...

A FAIRLY QUIET EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
BRINGING CHCS FOR PRECIP. FIRST BOUNDARY EARLY IN THE PD WILL
BRING JUST SLGT CHCS FOR SHRA MAINLY TO NRN PORTION OF FA WED
NGT/EARLY THURS. ANOTHER CLD FRONT SATURDAY MAY BRING SOMEWHAT
BETTER CHCS FOR PRECIP. MAIN STORY LATER THIS WEEK WILL BE COOLER
AIRMASS WITH HIGHS PSBLY NOT GETTING OUT OF THE 60S FOR A LARGE
PART OF THE FA ON THURSDAY WITH LOWS DROPPING WELL INTO THE 40S
FRIDAY MORNING. BEYOND THAT, TEMPS MODERATE TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE FOR HIGHS BY THE WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER AND
THEN SE OF THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
18Z MON UPDATE... TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTN...AS
A COLD FRNT APPROACHES FROM THE N AND W. WE HAVE TIMED RESTRICTIVE
CONDS WITH THIS ACTIVITY INTO OUR TERMINAL SITES FROM ABT 19-22Z.

LTR TNT...AFTER THE COLD FRNT PASSES...WINDS SHIFT INTO THE
NW...AND A FAIR AMT OF LWR CLDS APPEAR TO BUILD IN. FOR NOW...WE
HAVE MVFR RESTRICTIONS INTO KSYR/KRME/KITH/KBGM...AFTER 03-06Z.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CONDS FROM LWR CLDS EARLY...THEN SCTD
SHWRS BY AFTN.

WED-SAT...MAINLY VFR...WITH POTENTIAL MORNING RESTRICTIONS DUE TO
FOG.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/HEDEN
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...JML/PVN
AVIATION...MLJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1255 PM EDT MON SEP 2 2013

NYZ009-015>018-022-024-036-037-046-055-057-062-PAZ038>040-043-044-
048-072-031700-
NORTHERN ONEIDA-YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-STEUBEN-
CHEMUNG-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-OTSEGO-TIOGA-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-
BRADFORD-SUSQUEHANNA-NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-PIKE-
SOUTHERN WAYNE-
1255 PM EDT MON SEP 2 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW
YORK...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS. HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN ARE THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

HEDEN

PAZ047-031700-
LUZERNE-
1255 PM EDT MON SEP 2 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS. HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN ARE THE MAIN THREATS.

PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL LUZERNE COUNTY RECEIVED 3 TO 5 INCHES OF
RAIN EARLIER THIS MORNING. THESE AREAS WILL BE PARTICULARLY
SENSITIVE TO ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY DUE TO THE ALREADY
SATURATED GROUND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

HEDEN

NYZ023-025-044-045-056-031700-
SCHUYLER-TOMPKINS-CORTLAND-CHENANGO-BROOME-
1255 PM EDT MON SEP 2 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS. HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN ARE THE MAIN THREATS.

PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL SCHUYLER....NORTHWEST
TOMPKINS...NORTHERN BROOME....AND CENTRAL CHENANGO COUNTIES HAVE
RECEIVED 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THESE AREAS WILL
BE PARTICULARLY SENSITIVE TO ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY DUE
TO THE ALREADY SATURATED GROUND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

HEDEN

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