Severe Thunderstorm Warning 110, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
647 AM EDT MON SEP 2 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO NY AND
PA TODAY. THE FRONT WILL STALL JUST TO OUR EAST ON TUESDAY, WITH A
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OVER OUR REGION. COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WARM AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH ONGOING SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IN ADVANCE OF AN EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, WITH A THIN LINE OF 20-25 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALONG THE
FRONT.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO INTENSIFY ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE POTENTIAL IS VERY LOW HOWEVER.

ONE AREA OF CONCERN IS WEST CENTRAL LUZERNE COUNTY, WHICH RECEIVED
3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN EARLIER. THIS AREA WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
CLOSELY SHOULD HEAVY RAIN APPROACH AGAIN TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR EAST ON TUESDAY AS UL TROF SAGS
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF ONTARIO AND INTO NORTHERN NY. DESPITE DRY AIR
ADVECTION, THE PRESENCE OF THE TROF WILL KEEP A FEW SHOWERS OVER
FA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

BY EARLY WEDNESDAY, WE FINALLY GET ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE TROF
AXIS. PRECIP WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TO THE COAST, WHILE SKIES WILL
BEGIN TO CLEAR OVER NY/PA. THE COOL POOL ALOFT WILL BE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD, KEEPING TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF THE FA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...
NO CHGS NEEDED TO LONG TERM AT THIS TIME AS UL RIDGE HOLDS ACRS
WRN U.S. THRU SUNDAY BEFORE STARTING TO FLATTEN OUT EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

250 PM UPDATE...

A FAIRLY QUIET EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
BRINGING CHCS FOR PRECIP. FIRST BOUNDARY EARLY IN THE PD WILL
BRING JUST SLGT CHCS FOR SHRA MAINLY TO NRN PORTION OF FA WED
NGT/EARLY THURS. ANOTHER CLD FRONT SATURDAY MAY BRING SOMEWHAT
BETTER CHCS FOR PRECIP. MAIN STORY LATER THIS WEEK WILL BE COOLER
AIRMASS WITH HIGHS PSBLY NOT GETTING OUT OF THE 60S FOR A LARGE
PART OF THE FA ON THURSDAY WITH LOWS DROPPING WELL INTO THE 40S
FRIDAY MORNING. BEYOND THAT, TEMPS MODERATE TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE FOR HIGHS BY THE WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER AND
THEN SE OF THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
CONDITIONS RANGE FROM VFR TO LIFR AS AIRMASS SATURATED FROM RAIN
LAST NIGHT RESULTS IN DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT AT SOME TERMINALS.
HOWEVER TERMINALS THAT ARE CURRENTLY BEING AFFECTED BY SHOWERS
HAVE IMPROVING CONDITIONS. KBGM AND KAVP ARE CURRENTLY AT IFR AND
WILL REMAIN THERE THROUGH 13Z THIS MORNING. AT KITH AND KELM
EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SHRA THROUGH 14Z WITH KSYR AND
KRME REMAINING VFR.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO A BKN-OVC VFR DECK AFTER 15Z AT ALL
TERMINALS ALONG WITH A BRIEF BREAK IN THE RAIN. COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER 20Z THIS AFTERNOON WITH MVFR
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECT TERMINALS
TO DROP TO MVFR OVERNIGHT.

LGT/VRB WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MORE SWRLY AROUND 5KTS
DURING THE DAY SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST TOWARD MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR IN SCT SHRA.

WED-FRI...MAINLY VFR WITH POTENTIAL MORNING RESTRICTIONS DUE TO
FOG.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...JML/PVN
AVIATION...PVN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
223 AM EDT MON SEP 2 2013

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-
044-048-072-030630-
NORTHERN ONEIDA-YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-STEUBEN-
SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-TOMPKINS-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND-CHENANGO-
OTSEGO-TIOGA-BROOME-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-BRADFORD-SUSQUEHANNA-
NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE-
223 AM EDT MON SEP 2 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW
YORK...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS. WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PAZ047-030630-
LUZERNE-
223 AM EDT MON SEP 2 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS. WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON.

PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL LUZERNE COUNTY RECEIVED 3 TO 5 INCHES OF
RAIN EARLIER, AND WILL BE PARTICULARLY SENSITIVE TO ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PADAVONA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
152 AM EDT MON SEP 02 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0151 AM     FLASH FLOOD      HUNTINGTON MILLS        41.18N  76.23W
09/02/2013                   LUZERNE            PA   911 CALL CENTER

            ROAD WASHOUT ON ROUTE 239 BETWEEN HUNTINGTON MILLS AND
            SHICKSHINNY

&&

PN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
719 AM EDT MON SEP 2 2013

NYZ023>025-055-021145-
CHEMUNG NY-SCHUYLER NY-TIOGA NY-TOMPKINS NY-
719 AM EDT MON SEP 2 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN CHEMUNG...
SOUTHEASTERN SCHUYLER...SOUTHWESTERN TOMPKINS AND WEST CENTRAL TIOGA
COUNTIES...

* AT 717 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...STRONG
GUSTY WINDS TO 45 MPH...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR   CATHARINE...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ALPINE AND CAYUTA AT 725 AM EDT...
  ENFIELD AT 735 AM EDT...
  NEWFIELD HAMLET AND NEWFIELD AT 740 AM EDT...
  DANBY AND WEST DANBY AT 745 AM EDT...

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE
INDOORS IMMEDIATELY!

LAT...LON 4248 7649 4225 7648 4225 7689 4243 7691

HEDEN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
722 AM EDT MON SEP 2 2013

NYZ025-044-055-056-021200-
BROOME NY-CORTLAND NY-TIOGA NY-TOMPKINS NY-
722 AM EDT MON SEP 2 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN TOMPKINS...NORTHEASTERN
TIOGA...NORTHERN BROOME...AND SOUTHERN CORTLAND COUNTIES...

* AT 717 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...STRONG
  GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 40 MPH...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. THIS
  STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HARFORD...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  VIRGIL AT 730 AM EDT...
  HUNTS CORNERS AT 735 AM EDT...
  LAPEER AND CENTER LISLE AT 740 AM EDT...
  MARATHON AT 745 AM EDT...
  FREETOWN CORNERS AT 750 AM EDT...
  TEXAS VALLEY AND EAST FREETOWN AT 755 AM EDT...
  WILLET AND CINCINNATUS AT 800 AM EDT...

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.

LAT...LON 4251 7639 4260 7588 4259 7587 4236 7586
      4233 7635

MLJ