Severe Thunderstorm Warning 58, NWS La Crosse, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
227 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING
NORTHEAST ACROSS IA. THIS WAS KICKING OFF CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA WHERE LAPS WAS PRODUCING AN AXIS OF
1000-1500J/KG 0-1KM MLCAPE. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WAS RUNNING AROUND
65KT. CONVECTION...SOME SEVERE WITH INCREASING CAPE AND HIGHER-END
BULK SHEAR...WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH ROTATES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH AN
ISOLATED TORNADO ALSO POSSIBLE. LOOK FOR THE BULK OF THE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT.

LOOK FOR THE CLOSED LOW TO FILL AS IT ROTATES INTO THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COOL/CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE THE IMPETUS FOR MORE SHOWER AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. NAM INDICATING 0-1KM MLCAPE IN THE 150-300J/KG RANGE WITH ANY
DECENT BULK SHEAR SHIFTING ACROSS EASTERN WI. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
65-70 DEGREE ACROSS NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN...TO THE 70-75 DEGREE
RANGE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ROTATES EAST THROUGH THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY FOR A
MUCH DESERVED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
A BIT ON THE COOLER THAN NORMAL SIDE THOUGH WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
60S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE LOWER 40S ALONG
AND NORTHEAST OF I-94...TO THE MID/UPPER 40S ELSEWHERE.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ANOTHER CLOSED LOW IS SLATED TO MOVE
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
REGION. THIS WILL GIVE THE AREA ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH OVERALL COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
MODELS ARE INDICATING THE LOW LIFTING OUT OF THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY TIME FRAME. LEFT A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN FOR NOW
AND WILL PASS ALONG TO LATER SHIFTS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF DRYING
THINGS OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED
AT 1248 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

THE MAIN FOCUS AT THE TAF SITES IS WITH THE TIMING ON WHEN ANY
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL GET INTO THE TAF SITES. SHOWERS HAVE
ALREADY DEVELOPED NEAR RST AND WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WITH AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE...THESE SHOWERS
WILL QUICKLY STRENGTHEN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY AT RST BETWEEN 19Z/23Z. AS THE STORMS MARCH EAST...THEY
SHOULD REACH LSE SOMETIME BETWEEN 23Z AND 02Z. MVFR CUMULUS FIELD
WILL LIKELY STAY IN PLACE OR GRADUALLY CLIMB THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS COME IN WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS
SHOULD CLEAR OUT LATER THIS EVENING WITH WINDS SUBSIDING
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

WITH THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMING PROGRESSIVELY DRIER TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...LOOK FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO BE SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER
WITH ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. THEREFORE...RUNOFF IS
EXPECTED TO BE LESS OF AN ISSUE GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND. AS OF THIS
AFTERNOON...SEVERAL RIVERWAYS INCLUDING THE TURKEY...UPPER
IOWA...AND TREMPEALEAU STILL HAVE ONGOING FLOODING. FOR FURTHER
DETAILS...PLEASE SEE THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD STATEMENTS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...HALBACH
HYDROLOGY...DAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1153 AM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-032>034-
041>044-053>055-061-011200-
ADAMS-ALLAMAKEE-BUFFALO-CHICKASAW-CLARK-CLAYTON-CRAWFORD-DODGE-
FAYETTE-FILLMORE-FLOYD-GRANT-HOUSTON-HOWARD-JACKSON-JUNEAU-LA CROSSE-
MITCHELL-MONROE-MOWER-OLMSTED-RICHLAND-TAYLOR-TREMPEALEAU-VERNON-
WABASHA-WINNESHIEK-WINONA-
1153 AM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SOME OF THESE POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE.  THESE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST
IOWA BEFORE BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN
THIS EVENING.  LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO ARE
ALL POSSIBLE HAZARDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE MAIN TIME FRAME
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A TORNADO IS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS BEFORE WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE BECOMES THE MAIN HAZARD.

FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE UPPER IOWA AND TURKEY RIVERS IN
NORTHEAST IOWA...AND THE BLACK AND TREMPEALEAU RIVERS IN WESTERN
WISCONSIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ON SATURDAY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. NONE OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
SEVERE.

MANY RIVERS WILL BE IN FLOOD OR RUNNING HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. IT IS TOO EARLY DISCERN WHETHER ANY OF THEM WILL
BECOME SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

RAINFALL REPORTS ARE APPRECIATED.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO WEBINAR IS SCHEDULED.

BOYNE/04/HALBACH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
532 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0531 PM     HAIL             4 E PERKINSTOWN         45.20N 90.55W
05/31/2013  E0.50 INCH       TAYLOR             WI   PUBLIC

&&

SHEA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
540 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0529 PM     HAIL             4 WNW MEDFORD           45.16N 90.42W
05/31/2013  E0.88 INCH       TAYLOR             WI   911 CALL CENTER

&&

SHEA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
553 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0552 PM     HAIL             1 SE ESADORE LAKE       45.18N 90.44W
05/31/2013  E0.25 INCH       TAYLOR             WI   PUBLIC

&&

SHEA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
556 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0551 PM     HAIL             4 E PERKINSTOWN         45.20N 90.55W
05/31/2013  E1.00 INCH       TAYLOR             WI   PUBLIC

            HAIL WAS CLEAR COMPARED TO EARLIER STORM

&&

SHEA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
606 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

IAZ008-009-018-019-010000-
CHICKASAW-FLOYD-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
606 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

AT 602 PM...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM
OVER IDLEWILDE STATE PARK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM.

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  NEW HAVEN AROUND 620 PM...
  RICEVILLE...LYLAHS MARSH COUNTY PARK AROUND 640 PM...
  SARATOGA AROUND 650 PM...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM FRIDAY
EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN
WISCONSIN.

SMALL HAIL MAY FALL FOR SEVERAL MINUTES AND COVER THE GROUND. THIS
COULD LEAD TO DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS AND THE FORMATION OF FOG.

PREPARE NOW FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER. MOVE INDOORS AND IF A
WARNING IS ISSUED...TAKE ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.

HALBACH

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