Severe Thunderstorm Warning 26, NWS Gaylord, MI

955 
WWUS53 KAPX 190159
SVSAPX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
959 PM EDT THU JUL 18 2013

MIC033-190230-
/O.CON.KAPX.SV.W.0026.000000T0000Z-130719T0230Z/
CHIPPEWA MI-
959 PM EDT THU JUL 18 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR DRUMMOND 
ISLAND IN SOUTHEAST CHIPPEWA COUNTY UNTIL 1030 PM EDT...

AT 957 PM EDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 18 MILES EAST OF DRUMMOND ISLAND TO 6 MILES SOUTH OF
DETOUR VILLAGE...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4594 8347 4590 8356 4594 8365 4593 8384
      4596 8389 4600 8390 4606 8383 4601 8381
      4602 8378 4607 8382 4608 8378 4609 8380
      4611 8378 4609 8374 4611 8372 4612 8364
      4611 8357 4599 8343
TIME...MOT...LOC 0159Z 321DEG 22KT 4604 8331 4589 8391

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

LAWRENCE

465 
WWUS53 KAPX 190208
SVSAPX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1008 PM EDT THU JUL 18 2013

MIC033-190230-
/O.CON.KAPX.SV.W.0026.000000T0000Z-130719T0230Z/
CHIPPEWA MI-
1008 PM EDT THU JUL 18 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR DRUMMOND 
ISLAND IN SOUTHEASTERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY UNTIL 1030 PM EDT...

AT 1006 PM EDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED OVER DRUMMOND 
ISLAND...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4594 8347 4590 8356 4594 8365 4593 8384
      4596 8389 4600 8390 4606 8383 4601 8381
      4602 8378 4607 8382 4608 8378 4609 8380
      4611 8378 4609 8374 4611 8372 4612 8364
      4611 8357 4599 8343
TIME...MOT...LOC 0207Z 314DEG 18KT 4607 8329 4592 8389

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

LAWRENCE

475 
WWUS53 KAPX 190225
SVSAPX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1025 PM EDT THU JUL 18 2013

MIC033-190234-
/O.EXP.KAPX.SV.W.0026.000000T0000Z-130719T0230Z/
CHIPPEWA MI-
1025 PM EDT THU JUL 18 2013

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR DRUMMOND ISLAND WILL EXPIRE 
AT 1030 PM EDT...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR
PROPERTY.

ADDITIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE...AND A SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM. 

LAT...LON 4594 8347 4590 8356 4594 8365 4593 8384
      4596 8389 4600 8390 4606 8383 4601 8381
      4602 8378 4607 8382 4608 8378 4609 8380
      4611 8378 4609 8374 4611 8372 4612 8364
      4611 8357 4599 8343
TIME...MOT...LOC 0224Z 314DEG 18KT 4601 8320 4586 8380

$$

LAWRENCE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
742 PM EDT THU JUL 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT THU JUL 18 2013

ONE MORE DAY OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN FRIDAY BEFORE A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS PASSING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL COOL THINGS DOWN DRAMATICALLY BY
SATURDAY. PASSAGE OF THESE FRONTS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE OVERNIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL END BY FRIDAY
EVENING...WITH A DRY AND PLEASANT WEEKEND ON TAP.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 742 PM EDT THU JUL 18 2013

DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT TO CONVECTION IS QUICKLY DIMINISHING WITH THE
APPROACH OF SUNSET...BRINGING AN END TO THE WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS ALL OF NRN LWR MICHIGAN. AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER LAKE SUPERIOR HAS FURTHER ORGANIZED INTO A LEWP...
EXTENDING FROM JUST NORTH OF WHITEFISH BAY WESTWARD ALONG THE LAKE
SUPERIOR SHORELINE OF CENTRAL AND ERN UPR MICHIGAN. ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THIS LINE OF
CONVECTION...WITH THESE CELLS AND THE WHOLE LINE MOVING E/SE. THIS
LINE OF CONVECTION WILL SLIDE THRU ERN UPR MICHIGAN AND THE
STRAITS DURING THE BALANCE OF THE EVENING. VELOCITY DATA HAS SHOWN
SOME EMBEDDED AREAS OF ROTATION WITHIN THE THE LINE...AND WILL
CERTAINLY MONITOR RADAR AS THIS LINE SLIDES THRU OUR NRN CWA.
OVERALL AHEAD WILL STRENGTHEN THRU THE NIGHT AS AS 45 TO 50 KT LOW
LEVEL JET MAX LEANS INTO NRN MICHIGAN. PLENTY OF SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN IN TACT AS WE HEAD THRU THE NIGHT...AS
WILL AMPLE 850 MB THETA E.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT THU JUL 18 2013

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING.  INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS TONIGHT OVER EASTERN UPPER AND THE TIP OF THE MITT...MOVING
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY.

HOT AND HUMID WEATHER CONTINUES...WITH HEAT ADVISORIES BEING
CONFINED CLOSER TO SAGINAW BAY FOR THE DAY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF
ARRIVING COLD FRONT.

OVERVIEW: FLAT RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY NOW BECOMING EVIDENT
DROPPING OUT OF NORTHERN MANITOBA...WITH AN ADDITIONAL WAVE OVER
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN.  AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE HAS TAKEN
SHAPE OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS HOUR WITH QUASI-STATIONARY
WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND UPPER
MICHIGAN.  STORMS HAVE PERCOLATED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ALL DAY GIVEN
SOUPY WARM SECTOR AIRMASS AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS RIDING OVER THE
BOUNDARY IN THE PRESENCE OF AMPLE UNCAPPED INSTABILITY AND GRADUALLY
INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR.  ON THE MESOSCALE...AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY WORKED SOUTH INTO NORTHERN LOWER HELPING TO TRIGGER
CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE FRONT...WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY ONGOING
AS I TYPE.  TEMPS IN AREAS NOT SEEING RAINFALL ARE NOT DISAPPOINTING
THE HOT/HUMID TALK OF LATE...WITH TVC 96 AND CAD 97 THIS HOUR.

THROUGH EARLY EVENING: ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN LOWER...ALTHOUGH DECREASING IN COVERAGE AS WE
AWAIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM.

TONIGHT: BROAD AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREADS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AHEAD OF STRONG SHORTWAVE WHOSE CORE WILL BE DROPPING THROUGH
NORTHERN MANITOBA.  BENEATH THIS FEATURE THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK
NORTH AND EAST...TO NEAR THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF JAMES BAY BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY.  HEIGHT FALLS AND TIME OF DAY WILL COAX A STRENGTHENING LLJ
AT H8 FROM NORTHERN WISCONSIN NORTH AND EAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.
SYNOPTIC SETUP AND SHEAR PARAMETERS CERTAINLY FAVOR PROGRESSIVE MCS
DEVELOPMENT WITH OVER 30KTS OF 0-3KM BULK SHEAR...BUT NO MORE THAN
10KTS ABOVE THIS TO 6KM.  THE QUESTION BECOMES...WHERE IS THIS
CONVECTION LIKELY TO FORM/MOVE?

THE SYNOPTICALLY-FAVORED LOCATION WOULD BE NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR GIVEN THE CURRENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND EXPECTED LLJ
LOCATION.  THIS IS WELL SHOWN BY THE NEW 12Z NAM AND PROBABLY THE
STRONGEST GUIDANCE CONSENSUS WHICH BRINGS TO DISTINCT CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES OVER OR NORTH OF MY NORTHERN ZONES. AFTERNOON RADAR
TRENDS...HOWEVER...SUGGEST DEVELOPMENT A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND
WEST...OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN
THIS AREA.  EARLY AFTERNOON HRRR IS ONTO THIS TREND...AND WITH
FORWARD-PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS SUGGESTING AN ESE STORM
MOTION...LOOKS TO BRING ACTIVITY TOWARDS EASTERN UPPER LATER THIS
EVENING...WITH PERHAPS MORE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING UPSTREAM THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT.  THUS...WILL INCREASE POPS OVER EASTERN
UPPER TO LIKELY DURING THE EVENING HOURS...BUT KEEP LIKELIES
PRIMARILY RESTRICTED TO EASTERN UPPER OVERNIGHT GIVEN EXPECTED STORM
PROPAGATION.  SOME ROGUE STORM DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH IS
POSSIBLE...BUT LOWER POPS WARRANTED HERE.  SEVERE THREAT IS
THERE...MORE ISOLATED WIND/HAIL IN THE NEAR TERM...WITH A MORE
ORGANIZED WIND THREAT TAKING SHAPE THIS EVENING.

REALLY LIKE INHERITED VERY WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS GIVEN INCREASING
CLOUD COVER AND COUPLED BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW NOT GIVING TEMPERATURES
MUCH ROOM TO FALL. SO...LOOKING LIKE THE LAST UNCOMFORTABLE SLEEPING
NIGHT MAY BE THE WORST /AT LEAST OVER NORTHERN LOWER/ WHERE MID TO
UPPER 70S SHOULD ABOUT DO IT.

FRIDAY: SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL FOR THE APX CWA SO FAR THIS WARM
SEASON...WE HAVE A COLD FRONT PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA IN THE MIDDLE OF PEAK HEATING.  CLEARLY...OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON WHAT HAPPENS THUNDERSTORM-WISE
DURING THE DAY.  COULD VERY WELL BE SOME ONGOING ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
CWA EARLY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES AGAIN BEING OVER EASTERN
UPPER...CLOSEST TO THE ARRIVING COLD FRONT.  THIS AT LEAST SPELLS
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT /ESP OVER NORTHERN LOWER/ WHICH LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE CWA
IN THE 18-00Z TIME FRAME.  SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE IMPRESSIVE AS THE
PRIMARY BELT OF THE WESTERLIES SINKS INTO OUR AREA.  0-3KM BULK
SHEAR REACHES 40KTS...WITH 50KTS+ OF 0-6KM SHEAR.  SHEAR LOOKS TO
ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT ANGLE TO THE ARRIVING BOUNDARY...SO A LINEAR MODE
WITH EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS COULD CERTAINLY BE SUPPORTED. THIS IS
WELL CAPTURED BY THE DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK AREA FROM SPC.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES AND HEAT ADVISORY CONCERNS...THE EARLIER
EXPANSION OF THE HEAT ADVISORY TO THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES FOR THE DAY
LOOKS RIGHT ON...GIVEN STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST WINDS GIVING SOME
DOWNSLOPING ASSISTANCE TO THESE AREAS...WHICH SHOULD PUSH TEMPS INTO
THE LOW/MID 90S BEFORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH
AND WEST.  ELSEWHERE...LOW TO MID 80S LOOK GOOD GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER AND RAINFALL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT THU JUL 18 2013

RECENT TRENDS...TEMPERATURES: HOT...OBVIOUSLY.  1-3C ABOVE NORMAL
LAST 7 DAYS AND PRETTY MUCH FOR THE MONTH OF JULY THUS FAR.
PRECIPITATION/HYDROLOGY:  BAND OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER/STRAITS REGION LAST NIGHT (RADAR ESTIMATES 3+ INCHES
FAR WESTERN MACKINAC/SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES) MOST SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL
OF LAST SEVEN DAYS...OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED DIURNAL ACTIVITY MUCH OF
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN HASN'T SEEN A DROP.  30 DAY STANDARDIZED
PRECIP INDEX CONTINUING TO TREND DRIER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF UPPER MICHIGAN THAT SAW GOOD RAINS OVERNIGHT.  STREAMFLOWS ON
AREA RIVERS STILL MOSTLY NEAR NORMAL...HYDROGRAPHS FLAT GIVEN LACK
OF RENEWED RUNOFF. TOPSOIL MOISTURE STILL IN GOOD SHAPE DESPITE
RECENT DRYNESS.

LARGE SCALE PATTERN/FORECAST...CONTINENTAL U.S. DOMINATED BY FLAT
RIDGING...WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE MAIN WESTERLIES RUNNING
STRAIGHT WEST-EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.  PATTERN MORE BLOCKY
UPSTREAM ACROSS THE PACIFIC WITH "OFF THE CHART" -EPO/-WPO INDICES.
BALL OF ENERGY EMERGING FROM ABOVE THE ARCTIC CIRCLE AND ENTERING
FAR NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE
CATALYST TO THE END OF THE CURRENT HEAT AND HUMIDITY THAT HAS BEEN
LINGERING OVER THE UPPER LAKES THIS WEEK.  STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WILL
DROP ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND DRIVE COOLER AIR INTO MICHIGAN FOR
THE WEEKEND.  QUASI-ZONAL FLOW THEN FORECAST TO SET UP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH
SOME LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY
NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND.

AHEAD OF THE CANADIAN HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS
THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS
WILL PUSH A REFRESHINGLY COOLER/DRIER AIR MASS INTO THE UPPER LAKES
SATURDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE EAST MONDAY WITH RETURN FLOW OF WARMER
AIR BACK INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER LAKES GETTING UNDERWAY.  MAIN
FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE WITH THE TRANSITION
FROM WARM/MUGGY TO COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: WEATHER...LEAD COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY
STILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE M-72/US-10 CORRIDOR FRIDAY
EVENING...WITH CONVECTION (POTENTIALLY SEVERE) LIKELY ONGOING AHEAD
OF THIS BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD SINK INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BY
MIDNIGHT.  SECONDARY BOUNDARY COMES IN HOT ON ITS HEELS...PUSHED
ALONG BY THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE DIGGING SOUTHEAST.
MUCH OF THE FORCING ALOFT LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...SOME QG SUBSIDENCE CROSSES NORTHERN MICHIGAN BEHIND THE LEAD
FRONT.  SO WILL RUN WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BASICALLY SOUTH OF A
MBL-APN LINE FRIDAY EVENING...AND DRY THINGS OUT THEREAFTER HEADING
INTO SATURDAY.  WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
MIDWEST SUNDAY...WHICH COULD PUSH CLOUDS INTO NORTHWEST LOWER DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

WINDS...SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND SECONDARY COLD FRONT EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY SATURDAY GIVEN GOOD
POST-FRONTAL MIXING (LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION/DIURNAL HEATING) ON
THE ORDER OF 20+MPH.  WINDS FORECAST TO SETTLE DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT
AS HIGH BUILDS IN AND GRADIENT DROPS OFF.  SUNDAY WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND DOMINATED BY LAKE BREEZE EVOLUTION.

TEMPERATURES...OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD FINALLY BREAK INTO THE 50S
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND MUCH OF NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL LOWER
SATURDAY MORNING.  SHOULD SEE A NICE DROP IN HUMIDITY EXPECTED
SATURDAY WITH DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE 40S DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS 65-70 EASTERN UPPER...UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S
MUCH OF NORTHWEST LOWER WITH MID-UPPER 70S NORTHEAST LOWER.
SEASONABLY COOL LOWS FOR SUNDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING
INTO THE 40S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES.  SUNDAY HIGHS
AROUND 70-MID 70S EXPECTED.

EXTENDED FORECAST (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY):  MIDWEST SHORT WAVE
CURRENTLY LOOKS AS IF IT WILL PASS SOUTH OF LOWER MICHIGAN AND INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY.  IF THAT IS THE CASE THEN WILL
PROBABLY START THE NEW WORK WEEK WITH A DRY FORECAST.  BETTER THREAT
FOR RAIN MAY ARRIVE WITH A COLD FRONT HEADING INTO THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD...THEN WILL START THE NEW THURSDAY FORECAST OUT DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 742 PM EDT THU JUL 18 2013

OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD...HOWEVER
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL STEADILY INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY AS A POTENT COLD FRONT DROPS SE THRU NRN
MICHIGAN. LOW LEVEL SW FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
LENDING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LLWS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE STRONGER IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT THU JUL 18 2013

SUMMARY: A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY...WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM ON SATURDAY WITH VERY QUIET
CONDITIONS TO END THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD.

WILL ISSUE SMALL CRAFTS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ACROSS MOST OF
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
THIS EVENING.  THESE WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXPANDED EAST INTO PARTS
OF LAKE HURON ON FRIDAY.  MARGINAL SCA/S MAY AGAIN BE NECESSARY ON
SATURDAY GIVEN STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ016>034.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ035-036-041-042.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR LMZ323-342-344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

UPDATE...MR
SYNOPSIS...JPB
SHORT TERM...ARNOTT
LONG TERM...JPB
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...ARNOTT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
434 PM EDT THU JUL 18 2013

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-042-
191100-
STRAITS OF MACKINAC-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
MACKINAC BRDG TO PRESQUE ISLE LT-PRESQUE ISLE LT TO STURGEON PT-
STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER-GRAND TRAVERSE BAY-
SEUL CHOIX PT TO MACKINAC BRDG-NORWOOD TO MACKINAC BRDG-
SLEEPING BEAR PT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LT-PT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR PT-
MANISTEE TO PT BETSIE-WHITEFISH BAY-ST. MARYS RIVER-CHIPPEWA-
MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-
OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-
OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-
GLADWIN-ARENAC-
434 PM EDT THU JUL 18 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AND ADJACENT NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...LAKE HURON AND LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN UPPER AND THE TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES OF NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN...WITH THE STORM THREAT INCREASING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT.  THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
BECOMING SEVERE...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS A DEFINITE
POSSIBILITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN LIKELY FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION...WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
FRIDAY BEFORE ABATING SATURDAY.  PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HEAT ADVISORY
FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARRIVE NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD.

JPB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
834 PM EDT THU JUL 18 2013

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     HAIL             BARTON CITY             44.68N 83.60W
07/18/2013  M1.75 INCH       ALCONA             MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR. ALSO REPORTED TREES
            DOWN.

&&

IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
908 PM EDT THU JUL 18 2013

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0840 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 NW BAY MILLS          46.45N 84.61W
07/18/2013  M43 MPH          CHIPPEWA           MI   MESONET

&&

IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
935 PM EDT THU JUL 18 2013

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 PM     TSTM WND GST     MACKINAC ISLAND         45.86N 84.64W
07/18/2013  M58 MPH          MACKINAC           MI   AWOS

&&

IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
942 PM EDT THU JUL 18 2013

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 E MACKINAW CITY       45.78N 84.72W
07/18/2013  M39 MPH          CHEBOYGAN          MI   OFFICIAL NWS OB

&&

IRIS SYSTEM