River Flood Warning 4, NWS Gaylord, MI

965 
WGUS83 KAPX 110238
FLSAPX
 
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1038 PM EDT WED APR 10 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MICHIGAN...

  RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING AFFECTING ARENAC COUNTY
  MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN AFFECTING WEXFORD COUNTY

.WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE PAST THREE DAYS HAVE
TOTALED ONE TO AS MUCH AS THREE INCHES ACROSS THE AREA...
WITH AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES OF PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TO FALL THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THESE AMOUNTS...
COMBINED WITH FROZEN GROUND IN MANY AREAS...WILL CONTINUE
TO RESULT IN FLOOD CONDITIONS ON THE RIFLE AND MANISTEE
RIVERS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE 
LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS FLOODING SITUATION.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD WILL ISSUE ANOTHER
STATEMENT ON THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
LATEST INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.

&&

MIC011-111438-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-130413T1200Z/
/STRM4.1.ER.130410T1150Z.130411T0600Z.130413T0600Z.NO/
1038 PM EDT WED APR 10 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING...THE FLOOD WARNING 
CONTINUES FOR
  THE RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING.
* UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING.
* AT  9:30 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.2 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE TO AROUND 7.3
  FEET DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...BEFORE FALLING BELOW FLOOD
  STAGE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 6.0 FEET...HIGH WATER BEGINS TO IMPACT CANOE LIVERY AT 
  RIVER VIEW CAMPGROUND.

&& 

                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       THU     FRI     SAT

RIFLE RIVER
  STERLING           6    7.2  WED 09 PM       7.3     6.0     4.8



$$

MIC165-111438-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0004.130411T0600Z-130413T0000Z/
/SHRM4.1.ER.130411T0600Z.130411T1200Z.130412T1800Z.NR/
1038 PM EDT WED APR 10 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING...THE FLOOD WARNING 
CONTINUES FOR
  THE MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN.
* FROM LATE TONIGHT TO FRIDAY EVENING.
* AT  7:30 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.8 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AROUND MIDNIGHT AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 15.3 FEET THURSDAY MORNING. THE RIVER 
  WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 15.0 FEET...FLOODING BEGINS AROUND THE WILDERNESS CANOE 
  LIVERY ALONG LEFT BANK OF RIVER JUST DOWNSTREAM OF M-37 BRIDGE.
 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       THU     FRI     SAT

MANISTEE RIVER
  SHERMAN           15   14.8  WED 07 PM      15.1    14.6    13.8


$$

407 
WGUS83 KAPX 111356
FLSAPX
 
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
956 AM EDT THU APR 11 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN ...

  MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN AFFECTING WEXFORD COUNTY

.ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS THE MANISTEE RIVER BASIN SINCE MONDAY...WITH ONLY AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. RIVER LEVELS HAVE PEAKED AND EXPECT A VERY SLOW DECREASE IN LEVELS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS...FOR THE 
LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS FLOODING SITUATION.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD WILL ISSUE ANOTHER STATEMENT 
ON THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION...THIS EVENING...AS NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.

&&

MIC165-120156-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-130413T1200Z/
/SHRM4.1.ER.130411T0525Z.130411T1145Z.130413T0600Z.NR/
956 AM EDT THU APR 11 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING...THE FLOOD WARNING 
CONTINUES FOR
  THE MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN.
* UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING.
* AT  7:45 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 15.1 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 15.0 FEET...FLOODING BEGINS AROUND THE WILDERNESS CANOE 
  LIVERY ALONG LEFT BANK OF RIVER JUST DOWNSTREAM OF M-37 BRIDGE.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       FRI     SAT     SUN

MANISTEE RIVER
  SHERMAN           15   15.1  THU 08 AM      15.0    15.0    14.3



$$

550 
WGUS83 KAPX 120143
FLSAPX
 
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
943 PM EDT THU APR 11 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MICHIGAN...

  RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING AFFECTING ARENAC COUNTY
  MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN AFFECTING WEXFORD COUNTY

.RECENT RAINFALL AND CONTINUED PRECIPITATION HAVE ALLOWED RIVERS
AND STREAMS OVER THE RIFLE AND MANISTEE RIVER BASINS TO CONTINUE 
TO RUN WITH HIGH WATER LEVELS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS...FOR THE 
LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS FLOODING SITUATION.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD WILL ISSUE ANOTHER STATEMENT 
ON THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION AS NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.

&&

MIC011-121343-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-130415T0000Z/
/STRM4.1.ER.130410T1150Z.130411T1300Z.130414T1800Z.NO/
943 PM EDT THU APR 11 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING...
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING.
* UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING.
* AT  9:30 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.5 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  SUNDAY EARLY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 9.0 FEET...HIGH WATER BEGINS TO IMPACT CAMPGROUND AT 
  WHITE'S CANOE LIVERY AT MELITA ROAD BRIDGE.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       FRI     SAT     SUN

RIFLE RIVER
  STERLING           6    7.5  THU 09 PM       7.3     6.6     5.4



$$

MIC165-121343-
/O.CON.KAPX.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-130413T1200Z/
/SHRM4.1.ER.130411T0525Z.130411T2330Z.130413T0600Z.NR/
943 PM EDT THU APR 11 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN.
* UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING.
* AT  7:30 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 15.2 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 15.0 FEET...FLOODING BEGINS AROUND THE WILDERNESS CANOE 
  LIVERY ALONG LEFT BANK OF RIVER JUST DOWNSTREAM OF M-37 BRIDGE.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       FRI     SAT     SUN

MANISTEE RIVER
  SHERMAN           15   15.2  THU 07 PM      15.0    14.5    14.0



$$

532 
WGUS83 KAPX 121452
FLSAPX
 
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1052 AM EDT FRI APR 12 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MICHIGAN...

  RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING AFFECTING ARENAC COUNTY
  MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN AFFECTING WEXFORD COUNTY

.RECENT RAINFALL HAVE ALLOWED RIVERS AND STREAMS OVER THE RIFLE 
AND MANISTEE RIVER BASINS TO CONTINUE TO RUN WITH HIGH WATER LEVELS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS...FOR THE 
LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS FLOODING SITUATION.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD WILL ISSUE ANOTHER STATEMENT 
ON THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION AS NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.

&&

MIC011-130252-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-130418T1200Z/
/STRM4.1.ER.130410T1150Z.130411T1300Z.130418T0600Z.NO/
1052 AM EDT FRI APR 12 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING...THE FLOOD WARNING 
CONTINUES FOR
  THE RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING.
* UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING.
* AT  5:30 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.5 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 6.0 FEET...HIGH WATER BEGINS TO IMPACT CANOE LIVERY AT 
  RIVER VIEW CAMPGROUND.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       SAT     SUN     MON

RIFLE RIVER
  STERLING           6    7.5  FRI 05 AM       6.6     6.3     6.6



$$

MIC165-130000-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-130413T0000Z/
/SHRM4.1.ER.130411T0525Z.130412T0145Z.130412T1800Z.NR/
1052 AM EDT FRI APR 12 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN.
* UNTIL THIS EVENING.
* AT  7:45 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 15.1 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  THIS EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 15.0 FEET...FLOODING BEGINS AROUND THE WILDERNESS CANOE 
  LIVERY ALONG LEFT BANK OF RIVER JUST DOWNSTREAM OF M-37 BRIDGE.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       SAT     SUN     MON

MANISTEE RIVER
  SHERMAN           15   15.1  FRI 08 AM      14.7    14.2    14.0

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
958 AM EDT WED APR 10 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT WED APR 10 2013

SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK. THIS WILL BRING PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WINTRY WEATHER...WHICH
WILL CONSIST OF THE ENTIRE BAG OF WINTER ELEMENTS...BUT SLEET IS
LOOKING TO BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER TYPE.  MAINLY JUST SNOW AND SLEET
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO EASTERN UPPER THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ALL AREAS
IN JUST SNOW FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY FRIDAY.

ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF OVER THE WEEKEND...THE CHILLY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. SOME WARMING IS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WORK
WEEK...BUT NOT TO THE LEVELS WE WOULD NORMALLY EXPECT FROM SPRING.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 AM EDT WED APR 10 2013

WELL...LETS JUST SAY AN ENTERTAINING FORECAST (SOME OTHER THOUGHTS
GOING THROUGH THE OLD NOGGIN...BUT CAN'T SAY THEM HERE). HEALTHY
COMBO OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT..."WARM" SIDE FGEN DYNAMICS...AND
EXCELLENT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WORKING IN HARMONY TO KICK OFF AN
EXTENSIVE AREA OF PRECIP FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-68 THIS
EARLY MORNING. PRECIP TYPE RUNNING THE GAMUT...RANGING FROM A
SLEET/SNOW/FREEZING RAIN GOULASH NORTH OF M-72...TO JUST MAINLY RAIN
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN RATHER IMPRESSIVE...HELPED
ALONG BY HIGH PRECIP RATE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS EARLIER THIS MORNING.
TOTALS RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 0.75 INCHES FAIRLY COMMON ALONG AND
SOUTH OF M-55...WITH A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW TOTALING UP TO 3
INCHES IN THE ELEVATED HIGHLANDS NORTH OF M-72. OVERALL INTENSITY
TREND HAS BEEN A DOWNWARD ONE THE LAST FEW HOURS...AS LOW AMPLITUDE
WAVE DEPARTS AND WEAK SUBSIDENCE REGION FOLLOWS IN ITS WAKE. STILL
SOME EVIDENCE OF FGEN DYNAMICS IN THE PRECIP SHIELD...BUT THESE
SHOULD ALSO WANE WITH TEMPORARY LOSS OF DEEPER MOISTURE....LIKELY
LEAVING MOST AREAS NORTH OF M-72 RELATIVELY DRY THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. NEXT ROUND OF RAIN ALREADY PUSHING EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...COINCIDENT WITH SUBTLE MID LEVEL WAVE AND
NEXT ROUND OF FORCED ASCENT. RADAR EXTRAPOLATION SHOWS THIS
PRIMARILY AFFECTING AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-55...WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAINS JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTH. FORECAST ALREADY TRENDED THIS
DIRECTION...WITH JUST COSMETIC CHANGES NEEDED TO SENSIBLE WEATHER
ELEMENTS. LOTS (AND I MEAN LOTS) TO PONDER TONIGHT...WITH STRONG
SUPPORT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP BOWING BACK
NORTH...WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS TO BOOT. THERMAL PROFILES
REMAIN RIGHT ON THE CUSP OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND SNOW ALONG ITS
NORTHERN PERIPHERY (JUST HOW FAR NORTH PRECIP MAKES IT IS STILL MUCH IN
QUESTION). RAINFALL TOTALS COULD BE IMPRESSIVE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WITH AMOUNTS EXCEEDING ONE INCH ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES.
WINTER WEATHER AND FLOODING HEADLINES ALL POTENTIALLY IN THE MIX
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. STAY TUNED!

UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM EDT WED APR 10 2013

THE THUNDER HAS CEASED OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO...SOUTH OF
M-55...AS THE LLJ HAS VEERED. THE LOSS OF STRONGER CONVECTION HAS
ALLOWED MUCH OF THE SNOW TO CHANGE BACK TO SLEET AND RAIN. A FEW
AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING.
HAVE ALREADY MADE CHANGES TO THE SNOWFALL FORECAST...BUT FURTHER
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE INSIGNIFICANT.

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR THE LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW EARLY
MORNING/DAYBREAK HOURS AGAIN. ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND A STRONGER
LOW LEVEL JET/DYNAMICS WILL DEVELOP. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH QUICK BURSTS OF SNOW
THAT WILL ACCUMULATE. AMOUNTS IN THESE CONVECTIVE SCENARIOS ARE
DIFFICULT TO SAY THE LEAST...BUT MAYBE A FEW INCHES IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION FOR MUCH OF NRN LOWER. THIS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT
ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST. SEEING WHAT HAPPENED OVERNIGHT LENDS
ENOUGH CREDIBILITY TO GO AHEAD AND MAKE THESE CHANGES NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT WED APR 10 2013

TO SAY CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS ANYTHING
CLOSE TO BEING HIGH WOULD BE A LIE...AS PLENTY OF QUESTIONS REMAIN
REGARDING THE PLACEMENT OF SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIP...AND JUST WHAT
TYPE THAT PRECIP WILL BE. EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS LOOKS AN AWFUL LOT
LIKE IT DID THIS TIME LAST NIGHT...FEATURING A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
PARKED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AXIS
PARKED ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...ALL WHILE A RATHER SHARP UPPER
TROUGH IS SWINGING SOUTH TOWARD JAMES BAY. TREMENDOUS CONFLUENCE IN
BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS CONTINUES TO FORCE A STRONG THERMAL AXIS/
BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...ALL WHILE STALLED
SURFACE FRONT IS PARKED JUST SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR. NUMEROUS
SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO BE KICKED OUT OF THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH AND
ARE RIDING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...WITH EACH BRINGING A FRESH ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF LOWER MICHIGAN.

THE LATEST OF THESE WAVES...RESPONSIBLE FOR TUESDAY'S WET
WEATHER...HAS NOW PASSED WELL EAST OF THE AREA...WITH OUR NEXT BATCH
OF PRECIP ALREADY MAKING INROADS ACROSS SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AS OF
07Z. THIS AXIS IS ALONG A TIGHTENING DEEPER LAYER FGEN AXIS LAID OUT
FROM CENTRAL WISCONSIN INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH PRECIP
GENERATION BEING AUGMENTED BY STRONG ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS
WITH A 150+ KNOT JETLET CROSSING SOUTHERN ONTARIO. PER EXTRAPOLATION
AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE TRENDS...THIS AREA SHOULD SLIDE THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING. MEANWHILE...
STRONGER DOWNWARD FORCING ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE FGEN
CIRCULATION COMBINED WITH STRENGTHENING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND
BLEEDING IN OF DRIER AIR DOWN LOW SHOULD REALLY LIMIT THE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF ANY PRECIP THROUGH THE DAY (MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
M-32).

THAT MAKES PRECIP TYPE FORECASTING A LITTLE EASIER...BUT BY NO
MEANS CLEAR-CUT...AS A BIGGER WARM NOSE WILL BE IN PLACE WHERE THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP IS EXPECTED DOWN TOWARD M-55...MAKING FOR MORE OF
JUST A PLAIN RAIN SCENARIO...ALBEIT WITH CHILLY JUST ABOVE-
FREEZING TEMPS. FARTHER NORTH IS STILL A BIG CONCERN AS 00Z
RAOBS CONFIRM THE LATEST NAM/GFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTING COLDER AIR IS
ALREADY BLEEDING INTO THE AREA...AND WILL CONTINUE. FORECAST RAOBS
ARE STILL HOVERING BETWEEN SNOW AND SLEET...WITH A SKINNY BUT
SUFFICIENTLY WARM NOSE UP AROUND 750MB GRADUALLY BEING OVERCOME BY
STRONGER UPWARD MOTION. CAN SEE THIS BEING A SNEAKY SETUP FOR SOME
ACCUMULATION...ESPECIALLY ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE...AND WILL TREND
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES NORTH OF M-72. WITH
THAT SAID...THIS IS A VERY FLUID SITUATION...AND NEAR TERM CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST ARE LIKELY AS THE LIQUID/FROZEN PRECIP LINE BECOMES
BETTER DEFINED BY OBS. TEMPS TRICKY AS USUAL...BUT SHOULD SEE
READINGS STUCK IN THE 30S SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE THICKEST
CLOUDS/PRECIP RESIDE...WHILE READINGS MAY PUSH 40 NORTH WITH SOME
FILTERED SUNSHINE LIKELY AS DRIER WEDGE HOLDS FIRM.

FORECAST TONIGHT EVEN MORE LOW CONFIDENCE WITH REGARD TO WHERE
PRECIP WILL END UP. GUIDANCE IS LITERALLY ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH
JUST HOW FAR NORTH FORCING WILL END UP...BUT HONESTLY HAVE TO
BELIEVE A SOUTHERN SOLUTION IS MOST LIKELY GIVEN STRENGTH OF LOW
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDING THROUGH ONTARIO. WITH THAT SAID...AM A
LITTLE LEARY OF THIS IDEA AS THE STRONGER UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE
LIFTING NORTH WITH TIME...PERHAPS HELPING TO NUDGE THE BETTER
FGEN/WARM ADVECTION ASCENT NORTH AS WELL...BUT THAT LOOKS MORE
LIKELY INTO THURSDAY. PRECIP TYPE MUCH MORE TRICKY AS COLDER AIR
FURTHER DEEPENS BELOW 800MB...WITH SNOW LOOKING LIKELY ON THE FAR
NORTHERN FRINGE...WHILE A MIX OF SLEET AND EVEN FREEZING RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE DOWN TO ABOUT M-55...PROBABLY TRENDING TOWARD JUST SLEET
WITH TIME AS THE COLD DOME DEEPENS TO 4-5KFT. CONFIDENCE NOT EVEN
CLOSE TO HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY SORT OF HEADLINE YET...ESPECIALLY
IN LIGHT OF THE SMALL POTENTIAL FOR HEADLINES TO BE WARRANTED THIS
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT WED APR 10 2013

A DIFFICULT FORECAST CONSISTING OF ALL TYPES OF WINTER WEATHER AND
THEIR IMPACT ON THE REGION...CONTINUES TO BE THE FOCUS OF THE
LONG TERM...MAINLY EARLY ON...THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
CULPRIT OF THIS WINTER WEATHER IS THE ARRIVAL AND PASSAGE OF UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED OCCLUDING SFC LOW PRESSURE WHICH
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES PRIOR TO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO KEEP THE TRUE SPRING AT BAY...AT LEAST FOR AWHILE. THROUGH NEXT
WORK WEEK...SOME WARMING IS ANTICIPATED...BUT THE EXTENT OF WHICH
IS IN QUESTION.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THE WINTRY MIX RESIDES IN THIS TIME
FRAME. WHILE THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED CIRCULATION WILL BE
WORKING THROUGH THE NRN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...THE ASSOCIATED
OCCLUDED SFC LOW WILL TRYING TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS.
A NRN STREAM WAVE FROM AN UPPER LOW IN HUDSON BAY WILL BE DROPPING
SOUTH AND EAST EARLY ON. THIS WILL ALLOW THE UPPER TROUGH TO LIFT
NORTHWARD MORE EASILY...WHILE ALSO WEAKENING THE LOW TO MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. THE OCCLUSION PROCESS WILL BRING A
DECAYING WARM ADVECTION SCENARIO. STILL HOWEVER...STRONG SYSTEM
DYNAMICS ALOFT HIGHLIGHTED BY RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 150KT UPPER
JET...AS WELL AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ELONGATING SFC
TROUGHING WILL KEEP CATEGORICAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN PLAY.
THERMODYNAMICALLY...IT IS STILL DIFFICULT TO DISCERN THE STRENGTH
AND DEPTH OF THE ELEVATED WARM NOSE OF AIR...AND FCST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAIRLY DEEP LOW LEVEL SUB FREEZING AIR
MASS. THIS IS POINTING TOWARD A MORE LIKELY SLEET SCENARIO. WHILE
THIS IS INCREASINGLY LOOKING LIKE THE DOMINANT WEATHER
TYPE...THERE COULD STILL BE AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NRN LOWER. AS SFC TEMPS TRY HARD TO RISE ABOVE 32F...MANY
AREAS...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE HIGHER INTERIOR TERRAIN SOUTH OF
M-32...WILL SEE A GRADUAL END TO ANY FREEZING RAIN CHANCE. WILL
HAVE SOME SNOW MIXED IN FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG/NORTH OF M-32
AND INCLUDING TH HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH RAIN MIXED IN SOUTH OF
THESE AREAS. SO...QUITE THE ARRAY OF WEATHER. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AND DYNAMICS/MOISTURE MORE EASILY LIFT NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN
UPPER...THERE ARE NOT MANY PRECIP TYPE ISSUES. MAINLY SNOW IS
EXPECTED...AND THE BIG QUESTION HERE...IS HOW MUCH QPF CAN BE
SQUEEZED OUT AS THE OCCLUSION PROCESS CONTINUES? DID LOWER
SNOWFALL ACROSS THIS AREA...BUT A SOLID 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY. ALL OF THESE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE LIKELY TO
REQUIRE SOME ADDITIONAL PRODUCT ISSUANCES...POSSIBLY IN THE FORM
OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE UPPER CLOSED CIRCULATION MOVES IN
OVERHEAD...A SECONDARY SFC LOW THEN DEVELOPS OVERHEAD AS WELL.
TRENDS ARE ALL POINTING TOWARD A MORE PROGRESSIVE EASTWARD
MOVEMENT WITH THIS LOW...AS THE NAM IS THE ONLY ARGUER FOR A MORE
DEFINED AND SLOWER...DEEPER SFC SYSTEM. WITH THIS MORE PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION TO THE SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT...AM EXPECTING COLDER
AIR TO WRAP BACK INTO NRN MICHIGAN A BIT FASTER. EXCEPT FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF A MIX ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE LOWER POSSIBLE...ALL
AREAS SHOULD BE SNOW AT THIS POINT. DEEPEST MOISTURE AND BETTER
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE REMAINS LOCKED IN ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE
CWA...AND AN ADDITIONAL 3 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
ISN'T OUT OF THE QUESTION. IN THE SRN HALF...EMBEDDED ENERGY
ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTH END OF THE CLOSED LOW AND STEEPER LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO BE ABLE TO PROVIDE A DECENT CHANCE FOR
CONTINUES SNOW SHOWER CHANCES. THIS CHANCE DIES OFF INTO FRIDAY
EVENING...BUT IT'LL TAKE MUCH OF THE NIGHT FOR SNOW CHANCES TO DIE
OFF ACROSS EASTERN UPPER DUE TO LINGERING DEEPER MOISTURE AND LOW
LEVEL TROUGHING (MAYBE INTO SATURDAY??). CHILLY BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY IN LOW LEVEL COLD POOL...HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S
BEING COMMON.

SATURDAY ONWARD...UNCERTAINTY IN DETAILS HERE...BUT TRENDS ARE
POINTING TOWARD AT LEAST SOME WARMING OVER THIS TIME PERIOD. THE
PESKY UPPER TROUGHING WILL GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY EASTWARD...WITH
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING IN ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES. THIS
WILL BUMP UP HEIGHTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...TO WHAT EXTENT? WELL
THAT IS THE ISSUE. STRENGTH OF THE INITIAL ENERGY REALLY DECIDES
HOW QUICKLY WE CAN BUILD RIDGING. EVENTUALLY HOWEVER...THERE IS
SOME DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE STRONGEST OF ENERGY WORKS INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WORK WEEK...FOR THE POTENTIAL
A WELL DEFINED WARM SECTOR (ECMWF) TO DEVELOP OVER AT LEAST NRN
LOWER MICHIGAN (COLD WATERS LIKELY TO HAVE SOME SAY IN HOW FAR
NORTH A WARM FRONT CAN PROGRESS...BUT EVEN THE ECMWF SCENARIO
OUGHT TO BE ENOUGH TO BRING SOLID SOUTH WINDS AND THE STRONGEST OF
WARMING). TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 40S ALL AREAS DOES APPEAR
TO BE A DECENT ENOUGH BET THOUGH...AND ANY WARMING WOULD BE
WELCOMED AT THIS POINT. AHEAD OF ALL THIS...NEXT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION (RAIN/SNOW) START SUNDAY...GRADUALLY CHANGING TO
CHANCES FOR RAIN INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM EDT WED APR 10 2013

A DISTURBANCE ALOFT HAS ROAMED EASTWARD ALONG AND NORTH OF A
STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED SOUTH OF LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS FIRED OFF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER
TO SNOW. NOW THAT THE CONVECTION HAS ENDED...THE PRECIPITATION
TYPES ARE GOING BACK OVER TO SLEET AND RAIN...WITH SNOW AND SLEET
CONFINED TO THE LOCATIONS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BACK EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MAYBE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERY WEATHER FOR MBL THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MAIN SHOW
WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT WITH STRONGER ENERGY LIFTING TOWARD THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN SNOWFALL
WITH RATES EXCEEDING AN INCH PER HOUR ARE ANTICIPATED.
PRECIPITATION IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO ALTERNATE BETWEEN/BACK TO
RAIN/FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. WILL BE ANOTHER YUCKY MESS TONIGHT
FOR MAINLY MBL/TVC. VFR AT PLN...WITH A FEW HRS OF MVFR CIGS AT
APN THIS MORNING. TVC/MBL IN THE IFR/MVFR LONGER THROUGH THE DAY
WITH IFR RETURNING TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT WED APR 10 2013

NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BEFORE SHIFTING EASTERLY AND FURTHER INCREASING TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WILL BE FOUND SOUTH OF GRAND TRAVERSE
LIGHT ON LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY...WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPANDING TO
MOST OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS BY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ON LAKE HURON AND INTO THE
STRAITS...WHERE EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE CHANNELED. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY WIND DOWN ON FRIDAY...BEFORE BECOMING RATHER LIGHT INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH THE ARRIVAL OF HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

UPDATE...MB
SYNOPSIS...SD
SHORT TERM...DL
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...SD
MARINE...DL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
443 AM EDT WED APR 10 2013

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-042-
111145-
STRAITS OF MACKINAC-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
MACKINAC BRDG TO PRESQUE ISLE LT-PRESQUE ISLE LT TO STURGEON PT-
STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER-GRAND TRAVERSE BAY-
SEUL CHOIX PT TO MACKINAC BRDG-NORWOOD TO MACKINAC BRDG-
SLEEPING BEAR PT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LT-PT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR PT-
MANISTEE TO PT BETSIE-WHITEFISH BAY-ST. MARYS RIVER-CHIPPEWA-
MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-
OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-
OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-
GLADWIN-ARENAC-
443 AM EDT WED APR 10 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AND ADJACENT NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...LAKE HURON AND LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
THROUGH SUNRISE...MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM FRANKFORT TO EAST
TAWAS. IN THESE AREAS...PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO BE ABLE TO TURN
OVER TO BRIEF PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS...SLEET AND REDUCED
VISIBILITY. SOME LIGHT ICING IS EVEN POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH DAYBREAK. THIS MAY
RESULT IN LOCALIZED SLICK TRAVEL.

A MIXTURE OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH THE
SLICKEST OF CONDITIONS IN THE INTERIOR HIGHER TERRAIN. EXPECT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MORE SLICK AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE ONSLAUGHT OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL PERSIST
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING...BEFORE GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING
OVER TO ALL SNOW BY FRIDAY. THE PRECIPITATION...IN THE FORM OF
SNOW...WILL ALSO BE ABLE TO MOVE INTO EASTERN UPPER THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF SNOW...SLEET AND ICING WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD
TO SLICK AND HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN
MICHIGAN.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...MAINLY SOUTH OF M-72...MAY PUSH SOME
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN RIVERS OUT OF THEIR BANKS THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK

GALES ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF
THE NEARSHORE WATERS SURROUNDING THE GREAT LAKES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH
SPOTTERS ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SNOW AND/OR ICE AMOUNTS.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD.

SMD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
645 AM EDT WED APR 10 2013

MIZ020>036-041-042-101300-
LEELANAU-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-
KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-
ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NORTHPORT...MANCELONA...GAYLORD...
ATLANTA...ALPENA...FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY...KALKASKA...
GRAYLING...MIO...HARRISVILLE...MANISTEE...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY...
HOUGHTON LAKE...WEST BRANCH...TAWAS CITY...GLADWIN...STANDISH
645 AM EDT WED APR 10 2013

AS OF 640 AM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR SHOWS A SWATH OF
PRECIPITATION GENERALLY STRETCHED BETWEEN M-32 AND M-55. THIS
PRECIPITATION WAS ALTERNATING BETWEEN SNOW...RAIN AND SLEET...AS
TEMPERATURES HOVER AROUND THE FREEZING MARK. A FEW AREAS OF
FREEZING RAIN ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT THE SNOW THAT HAS BEEN
COMING DOWN WAS ALREADY VERY GREASY AND SLICK. THIS HAS RESULTED
IN SLIPPERY ROADS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.

THOSE TRAVELING ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING SHOULD
BE AWARE OF THE SLIPPERY ROADS AND HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.
PLEASE REMEMBER TO SLOW DOWN AND GIVE YOURSELF A LITTLE EXTRA
TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION.

SMD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
723 AM EDT WED APR 10 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       11 N LAKE CITY          44.49N 85.21W
04/10/2013  M1.15 INCH       MISSAUKEE          MI   SPOTTER

            24 HR TOTAL THRU 7 AM.

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 E HONOR               44.67N 85.94W
04/10/2013  M1.25 INCH       BENZIE             MI   SPOTTER

            24 HR TOTAL THRU 7 AM. SNOWDEPTH 9 IN. SOME PRECIPITATION
            FELL AS SNOW AND SLEET.

&&

LOCKER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
824 AM EDT WED APR 10 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       HIGGINS LAKE            44.46N 84.74W
04/10/2013  M1.30 INCH       ROSCOMMON          MI   SPOTTER

            24 HR TOTAL THRU 7 AM.

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       LUPTON                  44.43N 84.02W
04/10/2013  M1.10 INCH       OGEMAW             MI   SPOTTER

            24 HR TOTAL THRU 8 AM.

&&

LOCKER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
847 AM EDT WED APR 10 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       HOUGHTON LAKE           44.30N 84.76W
04/10/2013  M1.21 INCH       ROSCOMMON          MI   ASOS

            24 HR TOTAL THRU 8 AM.

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       TRAVERSE CITY           44.75N 85.60W
04/10/2013  M1.14 INCH       GRAND TRAVERSE     MI   ASOS

            24 HR TOTAL THRU 8 AM.

&&

LOCKER