Alert archive / Michigan / River Flood Warnings in 2013

River Flood Warning 3, NWS Gaylord, MI

April 9, 2013Arenac County, Michigan

NWS Gaylord, MI issued this river flood warning at Apr 9, 2013, 10:15 PM EDT for Arenac County, Michigan. It took effect at Apr 10, 2013, 6:30 AM EDT. It was in force for 11 days.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Apr 9, 2013, 10:15 PM EDT (02:15 UTC)
In effect from
Apr 10, 2013, 6:30 AM EDT
Expired
Apr 21, 2013, 4:45 PM EDT
In force
11 days
Issued by
NWS Gaylord, MI
Flood severity
Minor

County Arenac County, MI

The radar

The NCL Michigan radar (KAPX), 123 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:17 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Rifle River near Sterling (STRM4).

Action stage
5 ft
Minor stage
6 ft
Moderate stage
11 ft
Major stage
13 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 04142000, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

143 
WGUS43 KAPX 100215
FLWAPX
 
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1015 PM EDT TUE APR 9 2013

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING
FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN MICHIGAN...

  RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING AFFECTING ARENAC COUNTY

.SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN TOTALING UP TO AN INCH AND A HALF HAVE 
IMPACTED THE RIFLE RIVER BASIN OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS. ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
INITIALLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND THEN SNOW
OR SLEET WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. TOTAL ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN INCH AND A HALF ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THIS WILL PUSH THE RIFLE RIVER NEAR
STERLING ABOVE FLOOD STAGE SOMETIME WEDNESDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...

PERSONS IN THE WARNED AREAS SHOULD TAKE STEPS TO PROTECT PROPERTY 
FROM RISING WATER LEVELS. IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED...MOVE QUICKLY TO 
HIGHER GROUND.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD WILL ISSUE ANOTHER STATEMENT 
ON THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

MIC011-101415-
/O.NEW.KAPX.FL.W.0003.130410T1030Z-130412T0000Z/
/STRM4.1.ER.130410T1030Z.130411T0000Z.130411T1800Z.NO/
1015 PM EDT TUE APR 9 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A 

* FLOOD WARNING FOR 
  THE RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING.
* FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING TO THURSDAY EVENING....
* AT  9:30 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 5.3 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW MORNING AND CONTINUE 
  TO RISE TO NEAR 6.5 FEET BY TOMORROW EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL 
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY THURSDAY EARLY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 6.0 FEET...HIGH WATER BEGINS TO IMPACT CANOE LIVERY AT 
  RIVER VIEW CAMPGROUND.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       WED     THU     FRI

RIFLE RIVER
  STERLING           6    5.3  TUE 09 PM       6.5     5.4     4.2



$$
28 follow-up statements
231 
WGUS83 KAPX 101409
FLSAPX
 
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1009 AM EDT WED APR 10 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MICHIGAN...

  RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING AFFECTING ARENAC COUNTY

.ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS THE RIFLE RIVER
BASIN SINCE MONDAY...WITH AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.  THIS IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN CONTINUED RISES ON THE RIFLE RIVER THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS...FOR THE 
LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS FLOODING SITUATION.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD WILL ISSUE ANOTHER STATEMENT 
ON THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION LATER THIS EVENING AS NEW INFORMATION BECOMES
AVAILABLE.

&&

MIC011-110209-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-130413T0000Z/
/STRM4.1.ER.130410T1150Z.130411T1200Z.130412T1800Z.NO/
1009 AM EDT WED APR 10 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING...THE FLOOD WARNING 
CONTINUES FOR
  THE RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING.
* UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING.
* AT  9:30 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.3 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 7.1 FEET BY 
  TOMORROW MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE FRIDAY 
  EARLY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 6.0 FEET...HIGH WATER BEGINS TO IMPACT CANOE LIVERY AT 
  RIVER VIEW CAMPGROUND.
 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       THU     FRI     SAT

RIFLE RIVER
  STERLING           6    6.3  WED 09 AM       6.9     6.7     5.2

$$

JPB
965 
WGUS83 KAPX 110238
FLSAPX
 
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1038 PM EDT WED APR 10 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MICHIGAN...

  RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING AFFECTING ARENAC COUNTY
  MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN AFFECTING WEXFORD COUNTY

.WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE PAST THREE DAYS HAVE
TOTALED ONE TO AS MUCH AS THREE INCHES ACROSS THE AREA...
WITH AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES OF PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TO FALL THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THESE AMOUNTS...
COMBINED WITH FROZEN GROUND IN MANY AREAS...WILL CONTINUE
TO RESULT IN FLOOD CONDITIONS ON THE RIFLE AND MANISTEE
RIVERS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE 
LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS FLOODING SITUATION.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD WILL ISSUE ANOTHER
STATEMENT ON THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
LATEST INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.

&&

MIC011-111438-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-130413T1200Z/
/STRM4.1.ER.130410T1150Z.130411T0600Z.130413T0600Z.NO/
1038 PM EDT WED APR 10 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING...THE FLOOD WARNING 
CONTINUES FOR
  THE RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING.
* UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING.
* AT  9:30 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.2 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE TO AROUND 7.3
  FEET DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...BEFORE FALLING BELOW FLOOD
  STAGE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 6.0 FEET...HIGH WATER BEGINS TO IMPACT CANOE LIVERY AT 
  RIVER VIEW CAMPGROUND.

&& 

                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       THU     FRI     SAT

RIFLE RIVER
  STERLING           6    7.2  WED 09 PM       7.3     6.0     4.8



$$

MIC165-111438-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0004.130411T0600Z-130413T0000Z/
/SHRM4.1.ER.130411T0600Z.130411T1200Z.130412T1800Z.NR/
1038 PM EDT WED APR 10 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING...THE FLOOD WARNING 
CONTINUES FOR
  THE MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN.
* FROM LATE TONIGHT TO FRIDAY EVENING.
* AT  7:30 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.8 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AROUND MIDNIGHT AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 15.3 FEET THURSDAY MORNING. THE RIVER 
  WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 15.0 FEET...FLOODING BEGINS AROUND THE WILDERNESS CANOE 
  LIVERY ALONG LEFT BANK OF RIVER JUST DOWNSTREAM OF M-37 BRIDGE.
 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       THU     FRI     SAT

MANISTEE RIVER
  SHERMAN           15   14.8  WED 07 PM      15.1    14.6    13.8


$$
807 
WGUS83 KAPX 111339
FLSAPX
 
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
939 AM EDT THU APR 11 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MICHIGAN...

  RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING AFFECTING ARENAC COUNTY

.ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS THE RIFLE RIVER
BASIN SINCE MONDAY...WITH AN ADDITIONAL HALF TO ONE INCH OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN CONTINUED RISES ON THE RIFLE RIVER THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS...FOR THE 
LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS FLOODING SITUATION.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD WILL ISSUE ANOTHER STATEMENT 
ON THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION LATER THIS EVENING AS NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.

&&

MIC011-120139-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-130414T1330Z/
/STRM4.1.ER.130410T1150Z.130412T0000Z.130414T0730Z.NO/
939 AM EDT THU APR 11 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING...THE FLOOD WARNING 
CONTINUES FOR
  THE RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING.
* UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING.
* AT  8:30 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.7 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 7.8 FEET BY THIS 
  EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE SUNDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 9.0 FEET...HIGH WATER BEGINS TO IMPACT CAMPGROUND AT 
  WHITE'S CANOE LIVERY AT MELITA ROAD BRIDGE.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       FRI     SAT     SUN

RIFLE RIVER
  STERLING           6    7.7  THU 08 AM       7.8     7.1     6.1

$$

AJS
550 
WGUS83 KAPX 120143
FLSAPX
 
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
943 PM EDT THU APR 11 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MICHIGAN...

  RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING AFFECTING ARENAC COUNTY
  MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN AFFECTING WEXFORD COUNTY

.RECENT RAINFALL AND CONTINUED PRECIPITATION HAVE ALLOWED RIVERS
AND STREAMS OVER THE RIFLE AND MANISTEE RIVER BASINS TO CONTINUE 
TO RUN WITH HIGH WATER LEVELS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS...FOR THE 
LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS FLOODING SITUATION.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD WILL ISSUE ANOTHER STATEMENT 
ON THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION AS NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.

&&

MIC011-121343-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-130415T0000Z/
/STRM4.1.ER.130410T1150Z.130411T1300Z.130414T1800Z.NO/
943 PM EDT THU APR 11 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING...
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING.
* UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING.
* AT  9:30 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.5 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  SUNDAY EARLY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 9.0 FEET...HIGH WATER BEGINS TO IMPACT CAMPGROUND AT 
  WHITE'S CANOE LIVERY AT MELITA ROAD BRIDGE.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       FRI     SAT     SUN

RIFLE RIVER
  STERLING           6    7.5  THU 09 PM       7.3     6.6     5.4



$$

MIC165-121343-
/O.CON.KAPX.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-130413T1200Z/
/SHRM4.1.ER.130411T0525Z.130411T2330Z.130413T0600Z.NR/
943 PM EDT THU APR 11 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN.
* UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING.
* AT  7:30 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 15.2 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 15.0 FEET...FLOODING BEGINS AROUND THE WILDERNESS CANOE 
  LIVERY ALONG LEFT BANK OF RIVER JUST DOWNSTREAM OF M-37 BRIDGE.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       FRI     SAT     SUN

MANISTEE RIVER
  SHERMAN           15   15.2  THU 07 PM      15.0    14.5    14.0



$$
532 
WGUS83 KAPX 121452
FLSAPX
 
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1052 AM EDT FRI APR 12 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MICHIGAN...

  RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING AFFECTING ARENAC COUNTY
  MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN AFFECTING WEXFORD COUNTY

.RECENT RAINFALL HAVE ALLOWED RIVERS AND STREAMS OVER THE RIFLE 
AND MANISTEE RIVER BASINS TO CONTINUE TO RUN WITH HIGH WATER LEVELS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS...FOR THE 
LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS FLOODING SITUATION.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD WILL ISSUE ANOTHER STATEMENT 
ON THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION AS NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.

&&

MIC011-130252-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-130418T1200Z/
/STRM4.1.ER.130410T1150Z.130411T1300Z.130418T0600Z.NO/
1052 AM EDT FRI APR 12 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING...THE FLOOD WARNING 
CONTINUES FOR
  THE RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING.
* UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING.
* AT  5:30 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.5 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 6.0 FEET...HIGH WATER BEGINS TO IMPACT CANOE LIVERY AT 
  RIVER VIEW CAMPGROUND.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       SAT     SUN     MON

RIFLE RIVER
  STERLING           6    7.5  FRI 05 AM       6.6     6.3     6.6



$$

MIC165-130000-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-130413T0000Z/
/SHRM4.1.ER.130411T0525Z.130412T0145Z.130412T1800Z.NR/
1052 AM EDT FRI APR 12 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN.
* UNTIL THIS EVENING.
* AT  7:45 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 15.1 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  THIS EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 15.0 FEET...FLOODING BEGINS AROUND THE WILDERNESS CANOE 
  LIVERY ALONG LEFT BANK OF RIVER JUST DOWNSTREAM OF M-37 BRIDGE.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       SAT     SUN     MON

MANISTEE RIVER
  SHERMAN           15   15.1  FRI 08 AM      14.7    14.2    14.0
597 
WGUS83 KAPX 130201
FLSAPX
 
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1001 PM EDT FRI APR 12 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MICHIGAN...

  RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING AFFECTING ARENAC COUNTY

.RUNOFF FROM RECENT RAINFALL HAS PUSHED THE RIFLE RIVER OUT
OF ITS BANKS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS...FOR THE 
LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS FLOODING SITUATION.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD WILL ISSUE ANOTHER STATEMENT 
ON THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION AS NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.


&&

MIC011-131401-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-130418T2100Z/
/STRM4.1.ER.130410T1150Z.130416T1800Z.130418T1500Z.NO/
1001 PM EDT FRI APR 12 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THE FLOOD 
WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING.
* UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT  9:30 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.3 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 8.1  BY TUESDAY 
  EARLY AFTERNOON.  THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE 
  THURSDAY MORNING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET. 
* IMPACT...AT 9.0 FEET...HIGH WATER BEGINS TO IMPACT CAMPGROUND AT 
  WHITE'S CANOE LIVERY AT MELITA ROAD BRIDGE.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       SAT     SUN     MON

RIFLE RIVER
  STERLING           6    6.3  FRI 09 PM       6.0     6.2     7.6



$$
206 
WGUS83 KAPX 131415
FLSAPX
 
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1015 AM EDT SAT APR 13 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MICHIGAN...

  RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING AFFECTING ARENAC COUNTY

.RUNOFF FROM RECENT RAINFALL HAS PUSHED THE RIFLE RIVER TO JUST
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.

SAFETY MESSAGE...

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS...FOR THE 
LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS FLOODING SITUATION.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD WILL ISSUE ANOTHER STATEMENT AS NEW
FORECAST INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.

&&

MIC011-140215-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-130418T0600Z/
/STRM4.1.ER.130410T1150Z.130416T1800Z.130418T0000Z.NO/
1015 AM EDT SAT APR 13 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING.
* UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
* AT  9:30 AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.3 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 7.2  BY TUESDAY 
  EARLY AFTERNOON.  THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE WEDNESDAY 
  EVENING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET. 
* IMPACT...AT 6.0 FEET...HIGH WATER BEGINS TO IMPACT CANOE LIVERY AT 
  RIVER VIEW CAMPGROUND.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       SUN     MON     TUE

RIFLE RIVER
  STERLING           6    6.3  SAT 09 AM       5.9     5.9     6.9



$$
740 
WGUS83 KAPX 140050
FLSAPX
 
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
850 PM EDT SAT APR 13 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MICHIGAN...

  RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING AFFECTING ARENAC COUNTY

.RUNOFF FROM RAINFALL DURING THE PAST WORK WEEK HAS PUSHED THE
RIFLE RIVER TO JUST ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. THOUGH THE RIVER WILL
LIKELY GO BELOW FLOOD STAGE FOR A PERIOD...EXPECTED RAINFALL
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD AGAIN PUSH THE 
RIFLE RIVER OUT OF ITS BANKS LATER IN THE WEEK. 

SAFETY MESSAGE...

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS...FOR THE 
LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS FLOODING SITUATION.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD WILL ISSUE ANOTHER STATEMENT
AS NEW FORECAST INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.

&&

MIC011-141250-
/O.CON.KAPX.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-130418T0600Z/
/STRM4.1.ER.130410T1150Z.130416T1800Z.130418T0000Z.NO/
850 PM EDT SAT APR 13 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING.
* UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
* AT  8:30 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.1 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 7.0  BY TUESDAY 
  EARLY AFTERNOON.  THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE WEDNESDAY 
  EVENING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET. 
* IMPACT...AT 6.0 FEET...HIGH WATER BEGINS TO IMPACT CANOE LIVERY AT 
  RIVER VIEW CAMPGROUND.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       SUN     MON     TUE

RIFLE RIVER
  STERLING           6    6.1  SAT 08 PM       6.0     6.7     6.9



$$
723 
WGUS83 KAPX 141533
FLSAPX
 
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1133 AM EDT SUN APR 14 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MICHIGAN...

  RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING AFFECTING ARENAC COUNTY

.RUNOFF FROM RAINFALL DURING THE PAST WORK WEEK HAS PUSHED THE RIFLE 
RIVER TO AROUND FLOOD STAGE. THOUGH THE RIVER WILL LIKELY GO BELOW 
FLOOD STAGE FOR A PERIOD TONIGHT AND MONDAY...EXPECTED RAINFALL MONDAY 
AND MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD AGAIN PUSH THE RIFLE RIVER OUT OF ITS BANKS 
LATER IN THE WEEK. 

SAFETY MESSAGE...

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS...FOR THE 
LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS FLOODING SITUATION.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD WILL ISSUE ANOTHER STATEMENT 
AS NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.

&&

MIC011-150333-
/O.CON.KAPX.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-130418T0600Z/
/STRM4.1.ER.130410T1150Z.130417T0000Z.130418T0000Z.NO/
1133 AM EDT SUN APR 14 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING.
* UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
* AT 10:30 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW EVENING AND CONTINUE 
  TO RISE TO NEAR 6.8 FEET BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL 
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 6.0 FEET...HIGH WATER BEGINS TO IMPACT CANOE LIVERY AT 
  RIVER VIEW CAMPGROUND.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       MON     TUE     WED

RIFLE RIVER
  STERLING           6    6.0  SUN 10 AM       5.7     6.2     6.8



$$
667 
WGUS83 KAPX 150029
FLSAPX
 
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
829 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MICHIGAN...

  RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING AFFECTING ARENAC COUNTY

.WATER LEVELS ON THE RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING FELL JUST BELOW FLOOD
STAGE ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED IN THE
BASIN ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AGAIN ON TUESDAY MORNING.

SAFETY MESSAGE...

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS...FOR THE 
LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS FLOODING SITUATION.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD WILL ISSUE ANOTHER STATEMENT 
ON THIS SITUATION AS NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.

&&

MIC011-151229-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-130418T1312Z/
/STRM4.1.ER.130410T1150Z.130417T0600Z.130418T0712Z.NO/
829 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING...THE FLOOD WARNING 
CONTINUES FOR
  THE RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING.
* UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING.
* AT  7:30 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 5.9 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 7.5 FEET BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE 
  RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY THURSDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 9.0 FEET...HIGH WATER BEGINS TO IMPACT CAMPGROUND AT 
  WHITE'S CANOE LIVERY AT MELITA ROAD BRIDGE.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       MON     TUE     WED

RIFLE RIVER
  STERLING           6    5.9  SUN 07 PM       5.8     7.5     6.1



$$
366 
WGUS43 KAPX 151642
FLWAPX
 
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1242 PM EDT MON APR 15 2013

  RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING AFFECTING ARENAC COUNTY

.WATER LEVELS ON THE RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING FELL JUST BELOW FLOOD
STAGE ON SUNDAY BUT HAVE RISEN BACK TO JUST ABOVE FLOOD STAGE OVERNIGHT. 
WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED IN THE BASIN LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

SAFETY MESSAGE...

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS...FOR THE 
LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS FLOODING SITUATION.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD WILL ISSUE ANOTHER STATEMENT 
ON THIS SITUATION AS NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.

&&

MIC011-160442-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-130418T1800Z/
/STRM4.1.ER.130410T1150Z.130417T1200Z.130418T1200Z.NO/
1242 PM EDT MON APR 15 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR 
  THE RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING.* AT 12:30 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.2 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 7.9 FEET BY 
  WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE THURSDAY 
  MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 9.0 FEET...HIGH WATER BEGINS TO IMPACT CAMPGROUND AT 
  WHITE'S CANOE LIVERY AT MELITA ROAD BRIDGE.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       TUE     WED     THU

RIFLE RIVER
  STERLING           6    6.2  MON 12 PM       6.4     7.8     6.6



$$
066 
WGUS43 KAPX 160105
FLWAPX
 
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
905 PM EDT MON APR 15 2013

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING
FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN MICHIGAN...

  MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN AFFECTING WEXFORD COUNTY

.WATER LEVELS ON THE MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN ARE EXPECTED TO AGAIN
RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE ON TUESDAY DUE TO ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TONIGHT. THE
RIVER IS EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THROUGH THE WEEK AS MORE
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.


  RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING AFFECTING ARENAC COUNTY

.WATER LEVELS ON THE RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING HAVE RISEN BACK TO JUST
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED IN THE BASIN TONIGHT
AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...

PERSONS IN THE WARNED AREAS SHOULD TAKE STEPS TO PROTECT PROPERTY 
FROM RISING WATER LEVELS. IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED...MOVE QUICKLY TO 
HIGHER GROUND.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS...FOR THE 
LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS FLOODING SITUATION.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD WILL ISSUE ANOTHER STATEMENT 
ON THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION AS NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.


&&

MIC011-161305-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-130419T0508Z/
/STRM4.1.ER.130410T1150Z.130417T1200Z.130418T2308Z.NO/
905 PM EDT MON APR 15 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR 
  THE RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING.* AT  8:30 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.3 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 9.3 FEET BY 
  WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE THURSDAY 
  EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 9.0 FEET...HIGH WATER BEGINS TO IMPACT CAMPGROUND AT 
  WHITE'S CANOE LIVERY AT MELITA ROAD BRIDGE.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       TUE     WED     THU

RIFLE RIVER
  STERLING           6    6.3  MON 08 PM       8.8     8.1     5.4



$$

MIC165-161305-
/O.NEW.KAPX.FL.W.0005.130416T1400Z-130418T1800Z/
/SHRM4.1.ER.130416T1400Z.130417T0600Z.130418T1200Z.NR/
905 PM EDT MON APR 15 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A 

* FLOOD WARNING FOR 
  THE MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN.
* FROM TUESDAY MORNING TO THURSDAY AFTERNOON....
* AT  5:30 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.4 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW LATE MORNING AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 15.7 FEET BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE 
  RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY THURSDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 16.0 FEET...FLOODING OF PROPERTY AND HOMES ADJACENT TO 
  RIGHT BANK OF RIVER ALONG OJIBWAY DRIVE, OTTAWA DRIVE, AND CHIPPEWA
  DRIVE SOUTH OF WEST 12 ROAD.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       TUE     WED     THU

MANISTEE RIVER
  SHERMAN           15   14.4  MON 05 PM      15.7    15.2    14.5



$$
210 
WGUS83 KAPX 160924
FLSAPX
 
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
524 AM EDT TUE APR 16 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MICHIGAN...

  RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING AFFECTING ARENAC COUNTY
  MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN AFFECTING WEXFORD COUNTY

.A VERY MOIST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SEND PERIODS OF RAINFALL
INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME OF
THIS RAINFALL MAY BE HEAVY. WATER LEVELS ON MANY AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS ARE ALREADY RUNNING ON THE HIGH SIDE DUE TO THE RECENT
RAIN AND YESTERDAY'S SNOWMELT. ADDITIONAL RISES ARE VERY LIKELY
INTO THE WEEKEND...AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
RAINFALL...COUPLED WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWMELT...SIGNIFICANT RISES
ARE POSSIBLE.

THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE THE HEAVY RAIN WOULD FALL REMAINS
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE MAIN AREA OF
CONCERN WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A MANISTEE TO ALPENA LINE. 
THIS INCLUDES THE RIFLE AND MANISTEE RIVER BASINS. 

THE FOLLOWING FORECASTS MAY VERY WELL NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN
TIME...AS THE TOTAL POTENTIAL RAINFALL IS NOT YET INCLUDED IN
THE RIVER STAGE EXPECTATIONS.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS...FOR THE 
LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS FLOODING SITUATION.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD WILL ISSUE ANOTHER STATEMENT 
ON THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION AS NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.


&&

MIC011-162124-
/O.CON.KAPX.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-130419T0508Z/
/STRM4.1.ER.130410T1150Z.130417T1200Z.130418T2308Z.NO/
524 AM EDT TUE APR 16 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING.
* UNTIL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
* AT  4:30 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.1 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 9.3 FEET BY 
  TOMORROW MORNING. 
* IMPACT...AT 9.0 FEET...HIGH WATER BEGINS TO IMPACT CAMPGROUND AT 
  WHITE'S CANOE LIVERY AT MELITA ROAD BRIDGE.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       WED     THU     FRI

RIFLE RIVER
  STERLING           6    7.1  TUE 04 AM       8.8     8.1     5.4



$$

MIC165-162124-
/O.CON.KAPX.FL.W.0005.130416T1400Z-130418T1800Z/
/SHRM4.1.ER.130416T1400Z.130417T0600Z.130418T1200Z.NR/
524 AM EDT TUE APR 16 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN.
* FROM THIS MORNING TO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT  1:45 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.4 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY LATE THIS MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 16.0 FEET...FLOODING OF PROPERTY AND HOMES ADJACENT TO 
  RIGHT BANK OF RIVER ALONG OJIBWAY DRIVE, OTTAWA DRIVE, AND CHIPPEWA
  DRIVE SOUTH OF WEST 12 ROAD.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       WED     THU     FRI

MANISTEE RIVER
  SHERMAN           15   14.4  TUE 02 AM      15.7    15.2    14.5



$$
846 
WGUS83 KAPX 161457
FLSAPX
 
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1057 AM EDT TUE APR 16 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MICHIGAN...

  RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING AFFECTING ARENAC COUNTY
  MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN AFFECTING WEXFORD COUNTY

.ELEVATED RIVER LEVELS WILL BE EXACERBATED BY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
EXPECTED DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THIS WEEK.  TWO TO FOUR INCHES
OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN FROM 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WHICH WILL BRING ADDITONAL RISES
TO RIVERS ALREADY NEAR OR EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS...FOR THE 
LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS FLOODING SITUATION.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD WILL ISSUE ANOTHER STATEMENT 
ON THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION LATER THIS EVENING AS NEW INFORMATION
BECOMES AVAILABLE.

&&

MIC011-170257-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-130419T0100Z/
/STRM4.1.ER.130410T1150Z.130417T1200Z.130418T1900Z.NO/
1057 AM EDT TUE APR 16 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING.
* UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING.
* AT 10:30 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.6 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 8.8 FEET BY 
  TOMORROW MORNING. THE RIVER MAY FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE THURSDAY 
  AFTERNOON...BUT CREST MAY BE EXTENDED DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION
  OF EXPECTED RAINFALL.
* IMPACT...AT 9.0 FEET...HIGH WATER BEGINS TO IMPACT CAMPGROUND AT 
  WHITE'S CANOE LIVERY AT MELITA ROAD BRIDGE.

&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       WED     THU     FRI

RIFLE RIVER
  STERLING           6    7.6  TUE 10 AM       8.7     7.4     5.1

$$

MIC165-170257-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-130418T0000Z/
/SHRM4.1.ER.130416T2200Z.130417T0600Z.130417T1800Z.NR/
1057 AM EDT TUE APR 16 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN.
* UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING.
* AT  7:45 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.4 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE TO 
  RISE TO NEAR 15.2 FEET BY AFTER MIDNIGHT TOMORROW. THE RIVER MAY 
  FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT CREST MAY BE
  EXTENDED DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF EXPECTED RAINFALL.
* IMPACT...AT 15.0 FEET...FLOODING BEGINS AROUND THE WILDERNESS CANOE 
  LIVERY ALONG LEFT BANK OF RIVER JUST DOWNSTREAM OF M-37 BRIDGE.
 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       WED     THU     FRI

MANISTEE RIVER
  SHERMAN           15   14.4  TUE 08 AM      15.2    14.8    14.3

$$

JPB
119 
WGUS83 KAPX 170212
FLSAPX

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1012 PM EDT TUE APR 16 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MICHIGAN...

  RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING AFFECTING ARENAC COUNTY
  MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN AFFECTING WEXFORD COUNTY

.ELEVATED RIVER LEVELS WILL BE EXACERBATED BY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
EXPECTED DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THIS WEEK.  TWO TO FOUR INCHES
OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN FROM 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WHICH WILL BRING ADDITONAL RISES
TO RIVERS ALREADY NEAR OR EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS...FOR THE 
LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS FLOODING SITUATION.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD WILL ISSUE ANOTHER STATEMENT 
ON THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION LATER THIS EVENING AS NEW INFORMATION
BECOMES AVAILABLE.

&&

MIC011-171500-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-130419T0100Z/
/STRM4.1.ER.130410T1150Z.130417T1200Z.130418T1900Z.NO/
1012 PM EDT TUE APR 16 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING.
* UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING.
* AT 9:30 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.1 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 8.5 FEET BY 
  TOMORROW MORNING. THE RIVER MAY FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE THURSDAY 
  AFTERNOON...BUT CREST MAY BE EXTENDED DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION
  OF EXPECTED RAINFALL.
* IMPACT...AT 9.0 FEET...HIGH WATER BEGINS TO IMPACT CAMPGROUND AT 
  WHITE'S CANOE LIVERY AT MELITA ROAD BRIDGE.

&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       WED     THU     FRI

RIFLE RIVER
  STERLING           6    8.1  TUE 09 PM       7.3     5.2     4.4

$$

MIC165-171500-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-130418T0000Z/
/SHRM4.1.ER.130416T2200Z.130417T0600Z.130417T1800Z.NR/
1012 PM EDT TUE APR 16 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN.
* UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING.
* AT  7:30 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.5 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...RISE TO NEAR 15.0 FEET AS ADDITIONAL RAIN FALLS OVER 
THE MANISTEE RIVER BASIN BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING 
THROUGH THURSDAY.
* IMPACT...AT 15.0 FEET...FLOODING BEGINS AROUND THE WILDERNESS 
CANOE LIVERY ALONG LEFT BANK OF RIVER JUST DOWNSTREAM OF M-37 BRIDGE.
 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       WED     THU     FRI

MANISTEE RIVER
  SHERMAN           15   14.5  TUE 07 PM      14.4    14.3    14.1

$$
070 
WGUS83 KAPX 171422
FLSAPX
 
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1022 AM EDT WED APR 17 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MICHIGAN...

  RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING AFFECTING ARENAC COUNTY
  MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN AFFECTING WEXFORD COUNTY

.ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN IS FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
STARTING LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...AND COMBINED WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION SO FAR THIS MORNING WILL RESULT IN FLOODING ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE MANISTEE AND RIFLE RIVERS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS...FOR THE 
LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS FLOODING SITUATION.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD WILL ISSUE ANOTHER STATEMENT 
ON THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION LATER THIS EVENING AS NEW INFORMATION
BECOMES AVAILABLE.

&&

MIC011-180222-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-130420T2230Z/
/STRM4.1.ER.130410T1150Z.130417T0400Z.130420T1630Z.NO/
1022 AM EDT WED APR 17 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING...THE FLOOD WARNING 
CONTINUES FOR
  THE RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING.
* UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.
* AT  9:30 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.9 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THROUGH EARLY
  AFTERNOON SATURDAY. 
* IMPACT...AT 9.0 FEET...HIGH WATER BEGINS TO IMPACT CAMPGROUND AT 
  WHITE'S CANOE LIVERY AT MELITA ROAD BRIDGE.
 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       THU     FRI     SAT

RIFLE RIVER
  STERLING           6    7.9  WED 09 AM       6.9     5.9     6.6

$$

MIC165-180222-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-130421T0000Z/
/SHRM4.1.ER.130419T0200Z.130419T1200Z.130420T1800Z.NR/
1022 AM EDT WED APR 17 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING...THE FLOOD WARNING 
CONTINUES FOR
  THE MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN.
* UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.
* AT  7:45 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.4 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW LATE EVENING AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 15.5 FEET BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE RIVER 
  WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY SATURDAY EARLY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 16.0 FEET...FLOODING OF PROPERTY AND HOMES ADJACENT TO 
  RIGHT BANK OF RIVER ALONG OJIBWAY DRIVE, OTTAWA DRIVE, AND CHIPPEWA
  DRIVE SOUTH OF WEST 12 ROAD.
 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       THU     FRI     SAT

MANISTEE RIVER
  SHERMAN           15   14.4  WED 08 AM      14.3    15.2    15.3

$$

JPB
426 
WGUS83 KAPX 180124
FLSAPX
 
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
924 PM EDT WED APR 17 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MICHIGAN...

  RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING AFFECTING ARENAC COUNTY
  MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN AFFECTING WEXFORD COUNTY

.ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN IS FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COMBINED WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION SO FAR THIS MONTH AND CONTINUED SNOWMELT WILL RESULT IN FLOODING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MANISTEE AND RIFLE RIVERS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS...FOR THE 
LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS FLOODING SITUATION.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD WILL ISSUE ANOTHER STATEMENT 
ON THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION...INSERT TIME HERE!!...AS NEW 
INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.


&&

MIC165-181324-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-130422T2000Z/
/SHRM4.3.ER.130418T2100Z.130420T0600Z.130422T1400Z.NR/
924 PM EDT WED APR 17 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON...THE FLOOD WARNING 
CONTINUES FOR
  THE MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN.
* UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT  5:30 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.4 FEET. 
* RECORD FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 16.6 FEET BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE 
  RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY LATE MONDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 16.0 FEET...FLOODING OF PROPERTY AND HOMES ADJACENT TO 
  RIGHT BANK OF RIVER ALONG OJIBWAY DRIVE, OTTAWA DRIVE, AND CHIPPEWA
  DRIVE SOUTH OF WEST 12 ROAD.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       THU     FRI     SAT

MANISTEE RIVER
  SHERMAN           15   14.4  WED 05 PM      15.8    16.6    16.3



$$

MIC011-181324-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-130423T0300Z/
/STRM4.1.ER.130410T1150Z.130420T1800Z.130422T2100Z.NO/
924 PM EDT WED APR 17 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL MONDAY EVENING...THE FLOOD WARNING 
CONTINUES FOR
  THE RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING.
* UNTIL MONDAY EVENING.
* AT  8:30 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.3 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 10.9 FEET BY 
  SATURDAY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE 
  MONDAY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 11.0 FEET...HIGH WATER IMPACTS PROPERTY SOUTH OF 
  TOWNLINE ROAD DOWNSTREAM OF MELITA ROAD BRIDGE.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       THU     FRI     SAT

RIFLE RIVER
  STERLING           6    7.3  WED 08 PM       7.6    10.4    10.4



$$
978 
WGUS83 KAPX 180125
FLSAPX

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
925 PM EDT WED APR 17 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MICHIGAN...

  RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING AFFECTING ARENAC COUNTY
  MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN AFFECTING WEXFORD COUNTY

.ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN IS FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
2 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COMBINED WITH 
WELL ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION SO FAR THIS MONTH AND CONTINUED 
SNOWMELT WILL RESULT IN FLOODING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MANISTEE AND 
RIFLE RIVERS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS...FOR THE 
LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS FLOODING SITUATION.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD WILL ISSUE ANOTHER STATEMENT 
ON THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION...INSERT TIME HERE!!...AS NEW 
INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.


&&

MIC165-181324-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-130422T2000Z/
/SHRM4.3.ER.130418T2100Z.130420T0600Z.130422T1400Z.NR/
925 PM EDT WED APR 17 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON...THE FLOOD WARNING 
CONTINUES FOR
  THE MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN.
* UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT  5:30 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.4 FEET. 
* RECORD FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 16.6 FEET BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE 
  RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY LATE MONDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 16.0 FEET...FLOODING OF PROPERTY AND HOMES ADJACENT TO 
  RIGHT BANK OF RIVER ALONG OJIBWAY DRIVE, OTTAWA DRIVE, AND CHIPPEWA
  DRIVE SOUTH OF WEST 12 ROAD.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       THU     FRI     SAT

MANISTEE RIVER
  SHERMAN           15   14.4  WED 05 PM      15.8    16.6    16.3



$$

MIC011-181324-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-130423T0300Z/
/STRM4.1.ER.130410T1150Z.130420T1800Z.130422T2100Z.NO/
925 PM EDT WED APR 17 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL MONDAY EVENING...THE FLOOD WARNING 
CONTINUES FOR
  THE RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING.
* UNTIL MONDAY EVENING.
* AT  8:30 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.3 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 10.9 FEET BY 
  SATURDAY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE 
  MONDAY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 11.0 FEET...HIGH WATER IMPACTS PROPERTY SOUTH OF 
  TOWNLINE ROAD DOWNSTREAM OF MELITA ROAD BRIDGE.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       THU     FRI     SAT

RIFLE RIVER
  STERLING           6    7.3  WED 08 PM       7.6    10.4    10.4



$$
368 
WGUS43 KAPX 181442
FLWAPX
 
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1042 AM EDT THU APR 18 2013

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING
FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN MICHIGAN...

  AU SABLE RIVER NEAR RED OAK AFFECTING OSCODA COUNTY

...FORECAST FLOODING CHANGED FROM MINOR TO MODERATE SEVERITY FOR THE 
FOLLOWING RIVERS IN MICHIGAN...

  RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING AFFECTING ARENAC COUNTY

RAINFALL FROM OVERNIGHT FROM 0.50 TO 1.50 INCHES...COMBINED WITH AN 
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WILL
RESULT IN SHARP RISES ON THE AU SABLE AND RIFLE RIVER BASINS 
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...

PERSONS IN THE WARNED AREAS SHOULD TAKE STEPS TO PROTECT PROPERTY 
FROM RISING WATER LEVELS. IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED...MOVE QUICKLY TO 
HIGHER GROUND.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD WILL ISSUE ANOTHER STATEMENT 
ON THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION LATER THIS EVENING AS NEW 
INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.

&&

MIC135-190242-
/O.NEW.KAPX.FL.W.0006.130420T1500Z-130421T1800Z/
/RDOM4.3.ER.130420T1500Z.130420T1800Z.130421T1200Z.NR/
1042 AM EDT THU APR 18 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A 

* FLOOD WARNING FOR 
  THE AU SABLE RIVER NEAR RED OAK.
* FROM SATURDAY MORNING TO SUNDAY AFTERNOON....
* AT  8:00 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 5.1 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 7.0 FEET. 
* RECORD FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 7.1 FEET BY SATURDAY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE 
  RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY SUNDAY MORNING.

&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       FRI     SAT     SUN

AU SABLE RIVER
  RED OAK            7    5.1  THU 08 AM       5.6     6.7     7.1

$$

MIC011-190242-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-130423T0430Z/
/STRM4.2.ER.130410T1150Z.130420T0600Z.130422T2230Z.NR/
1042 AM EDT THU APR 18 2013

...FORECAST FLOODING INCREASED FROM MINOR TO MODERATE SEVERITY...
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR 
  THE RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING.

* AT 10:30 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.0 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 12.9 FEET BY 
  EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE 
  MONDAY EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 11.0 FEET...HIGH WATER IMPACTS PROPERTY SOUTH OF 
  TOWNLINE ROAD DOWNSTREAM OF MELITA ROAD BRIDGE.
 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       FRI     SAT     SUN

RIFLE RIVER
  STERLING           6    8.0  THU 10 AM      11.0    12.9    10.8

$$

JPB
037 
WGUS83 KAPX 182024
FLSAPX
 
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
424 PM EDT THU APR 18 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MICHIGAN...

  RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING AFFECTING ARENAC COUNTY
  MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN AFFECTING WEXFORD COUNTY

WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ON THE MANISTEE AND RIFLE RIVERS
THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH AN EXPECTED CREST LATE FRIDAY BEFORE BEGINNING
TO DROP THIS WEEKEND.  SOME ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...
WITH AROUND ONE-HALF INCH ADDITION RAINFALL ON AVERAGE ACROSS THE
RIFLE RIVER BASIN...AND AROUND ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-HALF INCH ACROSS
THE MANISTEE BASIN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS...FOR THE 
LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS FLOODING SITUATION.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD WILL ISSUE ANOTHER STATEMENT 
ON THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION EITHER LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AS NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.

&&

MIC011-190824-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-130422T1200Z/
/STRM4.2.ER.130410T1150Z.130420T0600Z.130422T0600Z.NO/
424 PM EDT THU APR 18 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING.

* UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.
* AT  3:30 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.9 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 11.1 FEET BY 
  EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY
  MONDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 11.0 FEET...HIGH WATER IMPACTS PROPERTY SOUTH OF 
  TOWNLINE ROAD DOWNSTREAM OF MELITA ROAD BRIDGE.

&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       FRI     SAT     SUN

RIFLE RIVER
  STERLING           6    7.9  THU 03 PM       8.2    11.1     9.2

$$

MIC165-190824-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-130421T0600Z/
/SHRM4.1.ER.130419T0600Z.130419T1800Z.130421T0000Z.NR/
424 PM EDT THU APR 18 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN.

* UNTIL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
* AT  1:45 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.8 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY AFTER MIDNIGHT TOMORROW AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 15.5 FEET BY TOMORROW EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
  RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY SATURDAY EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 16.0 FEET...FLOODING OF PROPERTY AND HOMES ADJACENT TO 
  RIGHT BANK OF RIVER ALONG OJIBWAY DRIVE, OTTAWA DRIVE, AND CHIPPEWA
  DRIVE SOUTH OF WEST 12 ROAD.
 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       FRI     SAT     SUN

MANISTEE RIVER
  SHERMAN           15   14.8  THU 02 PM      15.0    15.4    14.8

$$

JPB
878 
WGUS83 KAPX 190049
FLSAPX
 
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
849 PM EDT THU APR 18 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MICHIGAN...

  RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING AFFECTING ARENAC COUNTY
  MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN AFFECTING WEXFORD COUNTY

WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ON THE MANISTEE AND RIFLE RIVERS
THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH AN EXPECTED CREST LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY
BEFORE BEGINNING TO DROP THIS WEEKEND.  SOME ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT...AVERAGING AROUND ONE-HALF INCH ACROSS THE RIFLE RIVER
BASIN...TO LESS THAN ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS THE MANISTEE BASIN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS...FOR THE 
LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS FLOODING SITUATION.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD WILL ISSUE ANOTHER STATEMENT 
ON THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS NEW INFORMATION
BECOMES AVAILABLE.

&&

MIC011-191249-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-130422T1300Z/
/STRM4.2.ER.130410T1150Z.130420T0600Z.130422T0700Z.NO/
849 PM EDT THU APR 18 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING.

* UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.
* AT  8:30 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.1 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 11.0 FEET BY 
  EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE 
  MONDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 11.0 FEET...HIGH WATER IMPACTS PROPERTY SOUTH OF 
  TOWNLINE ROAD DOWNSTREAM OF MELITA ROAD BRIDGE.
 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED           FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       SAT     SUN

RIFLE RIVER
  STERLING           6    8.1  THU 08 PM      11.0     9.3

$$

MIC165-191249-
/O.CON.KAPX.FL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-130421T0600Z/
/SHRM4.1.ER.130419T0600Z.130419T1800Z.130421T0000Z.NR/
849 PM EDT THU APR 18 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN.

* UNTIL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
* AT  3:30 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.8 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY AFTER MIDNIGHT TOMORROW AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 15.5 FEET BY TOMORROW EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
  RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY SATURDAY EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 16.0 FEET...FLOODING OF PROPERTY AND HOMES ADJACENT TO 
  RIGHT BANK OF RIVER ALONG OJIBWAY DRIVE, OTTAWA DRIVE, AND CHIPPEWA
  DRIVE SOUTH OF WEST 12 ROAD.
 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       SAT     SUN

MANISTEE RIVER
  SHERMAN           15   14.8  THU 03 PM      15.4    14.8

$$
137 
WGUS83 KAPX 191518
FLSAPX
 
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1118 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MICHIGAN...

  RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING AFFECTING ARENAC COUNTY
  MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN AFFECTING WEXFORD COUNTY

.RIVER LEVELS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE MANISTEE AND RIFLE RIVERS
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...WITH A CREST EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND A
GRADUAL DROP IN LEVELS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS...FOR THE 
LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS FLOODING SITUATION.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD WILL ISSUE ANOTHER STATEMENT 
ON THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION LATER THIS EVENING AS NEW INFORMATION
BECOMES AVAILABLE.

&&

MIC011-200318-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-130422T2100Z/
/STRM4.2.ER.130410T1150Z.130420T0600Z.130422T1500Z.NO/
1118 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING.

* UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 10:30 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.5 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 11.0 FEET BY 
  AFTER MIDNIGHT TOMORROW. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE
  MONDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 11.0 FEET...HIGH WATER IMPACTS PROPERTY SOUTH OF 
  TOWNLINE ROAD DOWNSTREAM OF MELITA ROAD BRIDGE.
 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       SAT     SUN     MON

RIFLE RIVER
  STERLING           6    9.5  FRI 10 AM      11.0     9.3     6.8

$$

MIC165-200318-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-130421T0000Z/
/SHRM4.1.ER.130419T0251Z.130419T1800Z.130420T1800Z.NR/
1118 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN.

* UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.
* AT  7:45 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 15.2 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 15.4 FEET BY THIS
  AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE TOMORROW EARLY 
  AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 15.0 FEET...FLOODING BEGINS AROUND THE WILDERNESS CANOE 
  LIVERY ALONG LEFT BANK OF RIVER JUST DOWNSTREAM OF M-37 BRIDGE.
 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       SAT     SUN     MON

MANISTEE RIVER
  SHERMAN           15   15.2  FRI 08 AM      15.3    14.7    14.1

$$
918 
WGUS83 KAPX 200159
FLSAPX
 
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
959 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MICHIGAN...

  RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING AFFECTING ARENAC COUNTY
  MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN AFFECTING WEXFORD COUNTY

.RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS...FOR THE 
LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS FLOODING SITUATION.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD WILL ISSUE ANOTHER STATEMENT 
ON THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION SATURDAY MORNING AS NEW INFORMATION
BECOMES AVAILABLE.

&&

MIC011-201359-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-130422T0130Z/
/STRM4.1.ER.130410T1150Z.130419T2115Z.130421T1930Z.NO/
959 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING.
* UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING.
* AT  9:30 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.9 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 9.0 FEET...HIGH WATER BEGINS TO IMPACT CAMPGROUND AT 
  WHITE'S CANOE LIVERY AT MELITA ROAD BRIDGE.
 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       SAT     SUN     MON

RIFLE RIVER
  STERLING           6    9.9  FRI 09 PM       7.2     5.3     4.6

$$

MIC165-201359-
/O.CON.KAPX.FL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-130421T0000Z/
/SHRM4.1.ER.130419T0251Z.130419T2330Z.130420T1800Z.NR/
959 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN.
* UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.
* AT  7:30 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 15.4 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  TOMORROW EARLY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 15.0 FEET...FLOODING BEGINS AROUND THE WILDERNESS CANOE 
  LIVERY ALONG LEFT BANK OF RIVER JUST DOWNSTREAM OF M-37 BRIDGE.
 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       SAT     SUN     MON

MANISTEE RIVER
  SHERMAN           15   15.4  FRI 07 PM      14.6    14.0    13.6

$$
708 
WGUS83 KAPX 201006
FLSAPX

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
606 AM EDT SAT APR 20 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MICHIGAN...

  RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING AFFECTING ARENAC COUNTY
  MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN AFFECTING WEXFORD COUNTY

.RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH EARLY NEXT 
WEEK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS...FOR THE 
LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS FLOODING SITUATION.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD WILL ISSUE ANOTHER STATEMENT 
ON THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION SATURDAY MORNING AS NEW INFORMATION
BECOMES AVAILABLE.

&&

MIC011-201500-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-130422T0130Z/
/STRM4.1.ER.130410T1150Z.130419T2115Z.130421T1930Z.NO/
606 AM EDT SAT APR 20 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING.
* UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING.
* AT  5:30 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.4 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 9.0 FEET...HIGH WATER BEGINS TO IMPACT CAMPGROUND AT 
  WHITE'S CANOE LIVERY AT MELITA ROAD BRIDGE.
 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       SAT     SUN     MON

RIFLE RIVER
  STERLING           6    9.4  SAT 05 AM       7.2     5.3     4.6

$$

MIC165-201500-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-130421T0000Z/
/SHRM4.1.ER.130419T0251Z.130419T2330Z.130420T1800Z.NR/
606 AM EDT SAT APR 20 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING...THE FLOOD WARNING 
CONTINUES FOR
  THE MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN.
* UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING.
* AT  3:45 AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 15.4 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE AFTER
  MIDNIGHT TOMORROW.
* IMPACT...AT 15.0 FEET...FLOODING BEGINS AROUND THE WILDERNESS CANOE 
  LIVERY ALONG LEFT BANK OF RIVER JUST DOWNSTREAM OF M-37 BRIDGE.
 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       SAT     SUN     MON

MANISTEE RIVER
  SHERMAN           15   15.4  SAT 04 AM      15.0    14.4    14.0

$$
500 
WGUS83 KAPX 201654
FLSAPX
 
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1254 PM EDT SAT APR 20 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MICHIGAN...

  RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING AFFECTING ARENAC COUNTY
  MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN AFFECTING WEXFORD COUNTY

.RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH EARLY NEXT 
WEEK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS...FOR THE 
LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS FLOODING SITUATION.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD WILL ISSUE ANOTHER STATEMENT 
ON THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION...AS NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.

&&

MIC011-210454-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-130422T0300Z/
/STRM4.1.ER.130410T1150Z.130419T2115Z.130421T2100Z.NO/
1254 PM EDT SAT APR 20 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING...THE FLOOD WARNING 
CONTINUES FOR
  THE RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING.
* UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING.
* AT 12:30 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.7 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 9.0 FEET...HIGH WATER BEGINS TO IMPACT CAMPGROUND AT 
  WHITE'S CANOE LIVERY AT MELITA ROAD BRIDGE.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       SUN     MON     TUE

RIFLE RIVER
  STERLING           6    8.7  SAT 12 PM       7.3     5.4     4.7



$$

MIC165-210454-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-130421T1200Z/
/SHRM4.1.ER.130419T0251Z.130420T0745Z.130421T0600Z.NR/
1254 PM EDT SAT APR 20 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING...THE FLOOD WARNING 
CONTINUES FOR
  THE MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN.
* UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING.
* AT  9:45 AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 15.4 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  AFTER MIDNIGHT TOMORROW.
* IMPACT...AT 15.0 FEET...FLOODING BEGINS AROUND THE WILDERNESS CANOE 
  LIVERY ALONG LEFT BANK OF RIVER JUST DOWNSTREAM OF M-37 BRIDGE.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       SUN     MON     TUE

MANISTEE RIVER
  SHERMAN           15   15.4  SAT 10 AM      15.0    14.4    14.0



$$
876 
WGUS83 KAPX 210031
FLSAPX
 
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
831 PM EDT SAT APR 20 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MICHIGAN...

  RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING AFFECTING ARENAC COUNTY
  MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN AFFECTING WEXFORD COUNTY

.RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THIS WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS...FOR THE 
LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS FLOODING SITUATION.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD WILL ISSUE ANOTHER STATEMENT 
ON THIS SITUATION AS NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.


&&

MIC011-211231-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-130422T0130Z/
/STRM4.1.ER.130410T1150Z.130419T2115Z.130421T1930Z.NO/
831 PM EDT SAT APR 20 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING.
* UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING.
* AT  7:30 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 9.0 FEET...HIGH WATER BEGINS TO IMPACT CAMPGROUND AT 
  WHITE'S CANOE LIVERY AT MELITA ROAD BRIDGE.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       SUN     MON     TUE

RIFLE RIVER
  STERLING           6    8.0  SAT 07 PM       5.3     4.7     4.3



$$

MIC165-211231-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-130421T1500Z/
/SHRM4.1.ER.130419T0251Z.130420T0745Z.130421T0900Z.NR/
831 PM EDT SAT APR 20 2013

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING...THE FLOOD WARNING 
CONTINUES FOR
  THE MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN.
* UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING.
* AT  5:30 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 15.3 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  EARLY SUNDAY.
* IMPACT...AT 15.0 FEET...FLOODING BEGINS AROUND THE WILDERNESS CANOE 
  LIVERY ALONG LEFT BANK OF RIVER JUST DOWNSTREAM OF M-37 BRIDGE.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       SUN     MON     TUE

MANISTEE RIVER
  SHERMAN           15   15.3  SAT 05 PM      14.5    13.9    13.6



$$
830 
WGUS83 KAPX 211453
FLSAPX
 
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1053 AM EDT SUN APR 21 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MICHIGAN...

  RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING AFFECTING ARENAC COUNTY
  MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN AFFECTING WEXFORD COUNTY

.WATER LEVELS CONTINUE TO RECEDE ON THE RIFLE AND MANISTEE RIVERS
THIS MORNING...WITH A CONTINUED DROP EXPECTED INTO MONDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS...FOR THE 
LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS FLOODING SITUATION.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD WILL ISSUE ANOTHER STATEMENT 
ON THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION LATER THIS EVENING AS NEW INFORMATION
BECOMES AVAILABLE.

&&

MIC011-220000-
/O.CON.KAPX.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-130422T0000Z/
/STRM4.1.ER.130410T1150Z.130419T2115Z.130421T1800Z.NO/
1053 AM EDT SUN APR 21 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING.

* UNTIL THIS EVENING.
* AT 10:30 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.4 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  THIS AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 6.0 FEET...HIGH WATER BEGINS TO IMPACT CANOE LIVERY AT 
  RIVER VIEW CAMPGROUND.
 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       MON     TUE     WED

RIFLE RIVER
  STERLING           6    6.4  SUN 10 AM       5.3     4.7     4.3

$$

MIC165-220253-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-130422T1200Z/
/SHRM4.1.ER.130419T0251Z.130420T0745Z.130422T0600Z.NR/
1053 AM EDT SUN APR 21 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN.

* UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.
* AT  7:45 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 15.3 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  AFTER MIDNIGHT TOMORROW.
* IMPACT...AT 15.0 FEET...FLOODING BEGINS AROUND THE WILDERNESS CANOE 
  LIVERY ALONG LEFT BANK OF RIVER JUST DOWNSTREAM OF M-37 BRIDGE.
 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       MON     TUE     WED

MANISTEE RIVER
  SHERMAN           15   15.3  SUN 08 AM      15.0    14.6    14.3

$$

JPB
339 
WGUS83 KAPX 212045
FLSAPX
 
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
445 PM EDT SUN APR 21 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MICHIGAN...

  RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING AFFECTING ARENAC COUNTY

.THE RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING HAS DROPPED BELOW FLOOD STAGE...AND
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A STEADY DOWNWARD TREND.  THEREFORE...
THE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

&&

MIC011-212115-
/O.CAN.KAPX.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-130422T0000Z/
/STRM4.1.ER.130410T1150Z.130419T2115Z.130421T1952Z.NO/
445 PM EDT SUN APR 21 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING.

* AT  4:30 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 5.9 FEET. 
* FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT  3:52 PM SUNDAY.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO 5.1 FEET BY TOMORROW 
  MORNING.

&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       MON     TUE     WED

RIFLE RIVER
  STERLING           6    5.9  SUN 04 PM       5.3     4.7     4.3

$$

JPB

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Gaylord, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Apr 9, 10:12 PM EDT, 3 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Apr 9, 10:12 PM EDT, 3 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1012 PM EDT TUE APR 9 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 435 PM EDT TUE APR 9 2013

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...AS
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT...WITH
A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BUT
THEN ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION MOVES IN FOR THE DURATION OF THE
WEEK. WITH COLDER AIR ENTERING THE PICTURE...A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW
AND SLEET IS EXPECTED FOR MANY AREAS BY THURSDAY...WITH
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. THE CHILLY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1011 PM EDT TUE APR 9 2013

WIDESPREAD RAIN FROM THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HAS MOSTLY EXITED
OUR CWA...WITH ONLY A NARROW BAND OF RAIN REMAINING ALONG THE M-32
CORRIDOR. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS HAVE EXPANDED NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
BUT REMAIN SOUTH OF M-55 ATTM. STRONGER BATCH OF CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO FIRE UPSTREAM OVER SRN MINNESOTA AND IOWA NORTH OF
THE SURFACE LOW. SO FAR...NAM HAS HAD A DECENT HANDLE ON TIMING OF
QPF AND OF LOCATIONS OF HIGHEST QPF...BUT OVER MICHIGAN AND
UPSTREAM OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LATEST NAM STILL SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS RIDING ALONG OUR SRN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...THEN
SURGING NORTHWARD AGAIN BY AROUND 09Z. WITH THIS NEXT BATCH OF
PRECIP...COLD NE FLOW WILL LEND TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MIXED PRECIP
ON THE NRN EDGE...MAINLY NORTH OF M-72. AT THIS POINT...APPEARS
THAT MIXED PRECIP ALONG THIS NRN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL BE
RATHER SCATTERED AND LIGHT AND TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
FREEZING. SO IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL CAUSE
ANY TRAVEL PROBLEMS. AT THIS POINT...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES
AND WILL PLAY THE WAIT AND SEE GAME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT TUE APR 9 2013

WIDESPREAD RAIN IS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM SW TO NE ACROSS NRN
LWR MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGER
ACROSS OUR FAR SRN COUNTIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-55. DIMINISHING
PRECIP IS JUST A BIT AHEAD OF SCHEDULE...AND WILL MAKE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO WX/POP TIMING AS A RESULT. OTHERWISE...STILL
APPEARS OUR NEXT BATCH OF (MIXED) PRECIP WILL ARRIVE ACROSS OUR SW
COUNTIES BY 09Z...AND THEN SPREAD THRU THE REST OF NRN LWR
MICHIGAN THRU 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 PM EDT TUE APR 9 2013

...GRADUALLY COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN MICHIGAN...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SOME SLICK TRAVEL POSSIBLE FROM M-32
SOUTH TO M-72 BEGINNING DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
NOON.

OVERVIEW:  EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS QUITE THE
ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WITH LONGWAVE TROUGHING ALONG THE
ROCKY MOUNTAIN AXIS HELPING PUMP AMPLE GULF MOISTURE NORTH ACROSS A
WEST TO EAST ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE LOCATED NEAR THE MI/IN/OH
BORDER...WHICH BASICALLY SEPARATES MID SPRING TO THE SOUTH FROM LATE
WINTER TO THE NORTH. NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE IS ADVANCING RAPIDLY EAST THROUGH ONTARIO WITH AN
IMPRESSIVE 150KT JET STREAK ON ITS SOUTHERN FLANK.  BEHIND THIS
FEATURE/JET MAX...MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES AND CONCOMITANT SURFACE
PRESSURE RISES ALONG WITH AGEOSTROPHIC NORTHERLY LLEVEL FLOW
REARWARD FROM DEPARTING JET STREAK ARE ALL CONSPIRING TO GRADUALLY
ALLOW COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES TO OOZE SOUTH FROM CENTRAL
CANADA.  THIS COOLING LLEVEL AIR WILL INCREASINGLY COMPLICATE THE
FORECAST OF PRECIPITATION TYPE GOING FOREWORD...WITH INCREASING
WEATHER IMPACTS LIKELY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.

THROUGH THIS EVENING: TRACKING MCS REMNANTS NOW BEGINNING TO CROSS
LAKE MICHIGAN...HELPING REINFORCE INITIAL RAINFALL BAND THAT ARRIVED
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL BRING A DECENT SHOT OF RAINFALL
THROUGHOUT NORTHERN LOWER THROUGH THIS EVENING.  LIKELY LOOKING AT
0.1-0.3" OF LIQUID THROUGH 00Z BEFORE BACK EDGE RAPIDLY MOVES EAST.
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S.

TONIGHT: INITIAL MCS REMNANTS HEAD EAST...ENDING RAINFALL FROM WEST
TO EAST TO BEGIN THE PERIOD.  ATTENTION TURNS TO NEXT WRINKLE IN THE
MID LEVEL FLOW...NOW EVIDENT OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NEBRASKA...RESPONSIBLE FOR DEVELOPING CONVECTION ATTM.  THIS FEATURE
WILL PUSH NORTH AND EAST...COAXING ANOTHER SURGE IN THE H8 LLJ TO
ITS SOUTH AND EAST...AND WITH PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
CONVECTION EASILY SURVIVING ITS TRIP EAST GIVEN THIS MOIST INFLOW
AND DOWNSTREAM SUPPORT FROM NEARLY STATIONARY 150KT JET MAX ON THE
1.5 PVU SURFACE.  TRENDS IN THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGEST A
SLOWER ARRIVAL TO THIS FEATURE WITH MOST OF THE NIGHT /SAVE THE VERY
START AND VERY END/ LIKELY ENDING UP DRY.  LLEVEL MOISTURE
THINS...WHICH SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE...PRIMARILY
ALONG-SOUTH OF M-32 WITH FURTHER DRYING MAKING THIS QUITE UNLIKELY
FURTHER NORTH.

PTYPE: CERTAINLY RAIN TO START THE EVENING. WILL FOLLOW GRIDDED LAMP
GUIDANCE CLOSELY FOR THE OVERNIGHT...WHICH SUGGEST THAT AT THE
SURFACE...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT NEAR FREEZING UNTIL JUST BEFORE
DAYBREAK...AND ONLY OVER EASTERN UPPER AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN LOWER NORTH OF M-72.  UPSTAIRS...COOLING THROUGH THE COLUMN
SUGGESTS MIX POTENTIAL BEGINS AFTER MIDNIGHT...GRADUALLY PROGRESSING
SOUTH WITH TIME.  BY THE TIME PRECIPITATION ARRIVES TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...EXPECT SOME SLEET AS FAR SOUTH AS THE M-72 CORRIDOR...
WITH SNOW AND SLEET ALONG/NORTH OF THE M-32 CORRIDOR.  IN
BETWEEN...SOME ISOLATED FZRA LOOKS POSSIBLE IF PRECIPITATION CAN GET
GOING BEFORE DAYBREAK. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THROUGH DAYBREAK LOOK
QUITE LIGHT FOR LOCATIONS WHERE FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE.  SO...CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT FOLKS IN THE BAND
BETWEEN M-32 AND M-72 MAY EXPERIENCE A FEW SLICK SPOTS TOWARDS
DAYBREAK.

TEMPERATURES:  FALLING INTO THE LOWER-MID 30S CWA-WIDE.

WEDNESDAY: PRECIPITATION SPREADS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER TO
START THE DAY...WITH SIMILAR PRECIPITATION TYPE CONCERNS /SEE
BELOW/. BY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...LLJ OVER SOUTHERN LOWER SHIFTS EAST
WITH VEERING LLEVEL FLOW DIMINISHING FORCING OVER THE NEARBY
BAROCLINIC ZONE.  THE RESULT LOOKS TO BE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR
THE AFTERNOON WITH LIKELY POPS RESTRICTED TO AREAS SOUTH OF M-55.

PTYPE: THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN COOLS JUST SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY...
BUT GENERALLY TEMPS REMAINING NEARLY UNCHANGED. THE IMPORTANT
DIFFERENCE FROM THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WILL BE SOLAR INSOLATION...WHICH
WILL LIKELY HELP MORNING TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING...EVEN
IN THE COOL SPOTS OF NORTHERN LOWER. THUS...AFTER SOME DAYBREAK
FREEZING RAIN CONCERNS OVER INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER...THIS LOOKS
TO TRANSITION TO MORE OF A SNOW/SLEET/RAIN SCENARIO...WITH THE
DIVIDING LINE LIKELY NEAR OR A LITTLE NORTH OF M-72. NORTH OF THIS
LINE...EXPECT SNOW/SLEET...WITH SLEET/RAIN TO THE SOUTH EXCEPT ALL
RAIN ALONG/SOUTH OF M-55. THE FURTHER NORTH YOU GO...HOWEVER
...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL QUICKLY DWINDLE.  SO...EXPECT ONLY
MINOR SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS NORTH OF M-72...WITH A COATING TO
PERHAPS 1 INCH ALONG M-32.  IMPACTS LOOK GENERALLY QUITE
MINOR...WITH ANY SLICK SPOTS LIKELY ENDING BY LATE MORNING AS
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM.

TEMPERATURES:  35-40F AREA-WIDE...10-15F BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

HEADLINES:  IMPACTS DO NOT LOOK VERY SIGNIFICANT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE
ON LOCATION AND TIMING.  CAN/T RULE OUT THE NEED FOR A SMALL WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE MORNING HOURS...BUT AT THIS POINT...I DON/T
SEE THE IMPACTS RISING TO THIS LEVEL.  RATHER...WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SLICK SPOTS THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 PM EDT TUE APR 9 2013

RECENT TRENDS: TEMPERATURES...3-4C BELOW NORMAL FOR FIRST 8 DAYS OF
APRIL AS EARLY MONTH COLD BLANKETS MUCH OF CANADA AND CENTRAL/
EASTERN U.S..  PRECIP/HYDROLOGY...ABOVE NORMAL PRECIP TO START APRIL
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER (ESPECIALLY ADJACENT TO LAKE SUPERIOR)...LESS
THAN 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST LOWER.  30 DAY
STANDARDIZED PRECIP INDEX ALSO DRIER THAN NORMAL ACROSS NORTHEAST
AND MUCH OF SOUTHERN LOWER.  REMAINING SNOW COVER ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER AND US-131 CORRIDOR IN NORTHWEST LOWER...POCKETS OF 12+ INCHES
STILL ACROSS CHIPPEWA COUNTY.  AREA RIVERS SHOWING SOME UPWARD
RESPONSE TO YESTERDAY'S RAINFALL...RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING HAS
RISEN NEARLY 2 FEET/24H AND IS APPROACHING ACTION STAGE (RADAR
PRECIP ESTIMATES FROM NMQ SHOW 0.50-0.75 INCH RAINFALL OVER THE
BASIN PAST 24H).  GREAT LAKES...WATER TEMPERATURES AROUND 1C EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR...1-2C NORTHERN LAKES MICHIGAN/HURON.  LATEST
PROJECTED LAKE LEVELS FOR MICHIGAN-HURON HUG RECORD LOWS THROUGH THE
SUMMER.

LARGE SCALE PATTERN/FORECAST: FIVE WAVE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN WITH
MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA...NEAR
NEUTRAL ATLANTIC TELECONNECTIONS WITH THE PACIFIC VALUES SPIKING
SINUSOIDALLY (-WPO/+EPO/-PNA).  THE UPSHOT OF THIS IS BLOCKING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WITH TROUGHING TO THE EAST.  SPLIT FLOW
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY BOTTOMING OUT
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.  THIS TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS
THE MIDWEST DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...WHILE ADDITIONAL
JET ENERGY DIGS SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC HELPING TO
MAINTAIN NORTH AMERICAN LONG WAVE BUT WITH A SHIFT IN THE AXIS INTO
THE WESTERN STATES.  A PATTERN THAT IS POTENTIALLY A LITTLE WARMER
FOR THE GREAT LAKES BUT ALSO AN ACTIVE ONE.

IN THE SHORTER TERM...AS UPPER TROUGH EMERGES ONTO THE PLAINS...LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG AN ELONGATED BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  CURRENT
THINKING ON SURFACE LOW TRACK WILL RUN FROM MISSOURI-NORTHERN
ILLINOIS...THEN OCCLUDE AND GET STRETCHED OUT BY THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY.  SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO EVOLUTION OF SECONDARY LOW
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY...WILL BE DEPENDENT
ON HOW UPPER LEVEL WAVE EVOLVES WITH GFS/GGEM IN ONE CAMP (QUICKER
UPPER WAVE/STRONGER SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT) AND NAM/ECMWF SLOWER WITH
UPPER WAVE WITH SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT NOT AS DRAMATIC.  FORECAST
WILL SIDE WITH THE LATTER IDEA...WITH THE OCCLUDING SYSTEM LIFTING
NORTHEAST INTO MICHIGAN FRIDAY.  FORECAST PROBLEMS THROUGH FRIDAY
WILL DEAL WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AMOUNT ISSUES...WITH LOW/MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS LIKELY TO RESULT IN A SHARP GRADIENT BETWEEN
AREAS THAT RECEIVE PRECIPITATION AND WHICH DON'T...WHILE EAST/
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW PUSHES COOLER/DRIER AIR IN FROM ONTARIO
WHICH WILL IMPACT PRECIP TYPE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO BE IN THE
VICINITY OF NORTHEAST MISSOURI/WESTERN ILLINOIS WEDNESDAY
EVENING...WITH A WARM/STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EAST ACROSS
INDIANA/OHIO.  ENTRANCE REGION OF A 140+KT JET STREAK OVER NORTHERN
ONTARIO WILL GIVE THINGS A BOOST WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE INTO THE BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER AN
INCH).  MID LEVEL CONFLUENCE AXIS WILL BE SET UP ACROSS THE UPPER
PENINSULA...GIVE OR TAKE A COUPLE DEGREES LATITUDE THOUGH EXACTLY
WHERE THIS SETS UP WILL HAVE BIG IMPACTS ON NORTHERN MICHIGAN
WEATHER.  WILL TRY TO REFINE THE DETAILS A BIT MORE HERE...DOES
APPEAR THAT THE FOCUS FOR HEAVIER QPF WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS POSITION OF DEFORMATION AXIS ALLOWS DOWNWARD BRANCH OF
FRONTOGENETIC SECONDARY CIRCULATION TO BE FOCUSED ON NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN.  WILL CONTINUE WITH THE TREND OF KEEPING PRECIP OUT OF
EASTERN UPPER...AND GRADUATE POPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BELOW THE
BRIDGE WITH MAXIMUM QPF AROUND 0.50 INCH ALONG/SOUTH OF THE M-55
CORRIDOR.  PRECIP TYPE STILL NOT EXACTLY STRAIGHTFORWARD AS THERE
WILL BE A GRADIENT OF SNOW (ALONG/NORTH M-32) TO SNOW/SLEET/RAIN
(FREEZING RAIN?) M-32 TO M-55...AND MAINLY RAIN SOUTH OF THE M-55
CORRIDOR.  NOT PLANNING ON MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WILL MENTION SOME LIGHT ICING BETWEEN M-72 AND M-55.

MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL BE ONGOING THURSDAY MORNING AS SYSTEM
BEGINS TO OCCLUDE...AND EXPECT PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON (AND MAY PUSH FARTHER NORTH TOWARD THE UPPER PENINSULA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS UPPER SYSTEM GETS CLOSER AND DEFORMATION
AXIS WEAKENS).  PRECIP TYPE WILL CONTINUE TO BE TRICKY AS 850MB
THERMAL RIDGE LIFTS FARTHER NORTH ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN.  WILL ALLOW
PRECIP TO TRANSITION OVER TO MORE SLEET/RAIN/FREEZING RAIN BETWEEN
M-72 AND M-68 THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  LIKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP
SNOW AMOUNTS MINIMAL AS BEST SNOW CHANCES WILL (SHOULD) BE IN
LIGHTEST QPF AREAS (AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE
FREEZING WITH THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE).

ANOTHER SURGE OF PRECIPITATION APPEARS LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS IS MORE FOCUSED ON NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN AS OCCLUDED BOUNDARY BENDS NORTHWARD INTO THE LOWER
PENINSULA.  THIS SHOULD ALSO ALLOW EASTERN UPPER TO GET IN ON THE
ACT AS WELL AS DEEPER MOISTURE WRAPS BACK TO THE WEST.  PRECIP TYPE
EXPECTED TO BE ALL SNOW ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND THE TIP OF THE
MITT...TRANSITIONING TOWARD MORE SLEET/FREEZING RAIN FARTHER SOUTH
DURING THE EVENING...WHICH ITSELF IS EXPECTED TO HEAD MORE TOWARD
SNOW BY FRIDAY MORNING.  PERIODS OF SNOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FRIDAY.  SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND THE TIP OF THE MITT
COULD END UP PUSHING AT LEAST ADVISORY CRITERIA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY (AND SHOULD BE ON THE HEAVY/WETTER SIDE FROM A SNOW RATIO
STANDPOINT).

OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE A REAL MESS AND DESPITE ALL THE DETAILS ABOVE
THERE WILL LIKELY BE CHANGES.  WILL PROBABLY BE LOOKING AT VARIOUS
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR A DRAWN OUT EVENT.

EXTENDED FORECAST (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY):  SHORT AND SWEET HERE
AFTER ALL THAT...WILL DRY THINGS OUT SATURDAY...RAIN MOVES IN LATER
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH/COLD
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT TUE APR 9 2013

OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IFR THRU WEDNESDAY EVENING AS WAVES
OF PRECIP CONTINUE TO IMPACT NRN LWR MICHIGAN. WIDESPREAD RAIN
WILL END ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
ACTION INTO OVERNIGHT. BY 09Z...ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL
SPREAD INTO NRN LWR MICHIGAN FROM SW TO NE. THIS BATCH OF PRECIP
WILL FEATURE MIXED RAIN/SLEET AROUND TVC AND MBL BY 09Z AND MIXED
SNOW/SLEET AROUND PLN AND APN BY 12Z. N/NE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS
ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 435 PM EDT TUE APR 9 2013

SUMMARY:  WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG A FRONT STALLED OVER
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THIS...LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTH
AND EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES...IMPACTING OUR WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.

HEADLINES: SMALL CRAFTS FROM GTLM4 SOUTH LOOK GOOD GIVEN SLOWLY
STRENGTHENING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TONIGHT.  THIS WILL LIKELY NEED TO
BE EXPANDED TO AREAS FROM STURGEON POINT SOUTH COME LATER WEDNESDAY
GIVEN FURTHER STRENGTHENING TO THE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS.  SMALL
CRAFTS WILL EXPAND TO ALL ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AFOREMENTIONED
LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO PUSH TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES...WHICH WILL BE
NEEDED THROUGH WEEK/S END.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 435 PM EDT TUE APR 9 2013

AS FOR HYDROLOGY...FORECAST QPF PUTS MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN
AND RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE...TOTAL QPF
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY OF 1-2 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-32.
DID CONSIDER A FLOOD WATCH BUT ISSUED A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK EARLIER
TODAY FOR THE TWO DATA POINTS...GOOD POSSIBILITY OF UPGRADING AT
LEAST STERLING TO A FLOOD WARNING WITH LATER RIVER FORECAST
ISSUANCES.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

UPDATE...MR
SYNOPSIS...KB
SHORT TERM...ARNOTT
LONG TERM...JPB
AVIATION...MR
HYDROLOGY...JPB
MARINE...ARNOTT
Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 9, 4:54 PM EDT, 5 hours 21 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
454 PM EDT TUE APR 9 2013

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-042-
101200-
STRAITS OF MACKINAC-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
MACKINAC BRDG TO PRESQUE ISLE LT-PRESQUE ISLE LT TO STURGEON PT-
STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER-GRAND TRAVERSE BAY-
SEUL CHOIX PT TO MACKINAC BRDG-NORWOOD TO MACKINAC BRDG-
SLEEPING BEAR PT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LT-PT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR PT-
MANISTEE TO PT BETSIE-WHITEFISH BAY-ST. MARYS RIVER-CHIPPEWA-
MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-
OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-
OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-
GLADWIN-ARENAC-
454 PM EDT TUE APR 9 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AND ADJACENT NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...LAKE HURON AND LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-55
THROUGH THIS EVENING.  NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED.

SOME LIGHT ICING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN TOWARDS DAYBREAK...NORTH OF M-72. THIS MAY RESULT IN
LOCALIZED SLICK TRAVEL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A WINTRY MESS OF WEATHER TO
NORTHERN MICHIGAN FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A PERIOD OF SNOW AND SLEET IS EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
ON WEDNESDAY...NORTH OF M-72.  SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF A
COATING TO ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE.  THIS MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED
SLICK TRAVEL...PARTICULARLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

SNOW...SLEET...AND SOME FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION OVER TO ALL SNOW BY FRIDAY.  SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART...THOUGH ICE ACCUMULATION MAY
RESULT IN SLICK ROADS.

ACROSS EASTERN UPPER...MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN SNOW SPREADS IN.  SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF
SNOW ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY PUSH SOME NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN RIVERS
OUT OF THEIR BANKS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK

GALES ARE POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS SURROUNDING THE GREAT LAKES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD.

JPB

The office that day

Everything else NWS Gaylord, MI issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Apr 10, 10:12 AM EDTRiver Flood WarningAPXWexford58 hr
Apr 10, 4:37 PM EDTFlood WatchAPXAlcona, Arenac, Benzie, Crawford, Gladwin, Grand Traverse and 8 more29 hr
Apr 10, 4:37 PM EDTWinter Weather AdvisoryAPXAlcona, Arenac, Benzie, Crawford, Gladwin, Grand Traverse and 8 more12 hr
Apr 10, 4:38 PM EDTGale WatchAPX11 hr

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Michigan, 2013Every river flood warning in 2013

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.