Severe Thunderstorm Warning 40, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
602 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

.AVIATION...
A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND A DRYLINE
EXTENDING FROM THE FRONT IN THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE SOUTHWEST
INTO THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTION
MAINLY AFFECTING THE AMARILLO TAF SITE THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION. SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS EXCEPT WIND
GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS OR GREATER NEAR THE CONVECTION.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013/

DISCUSSION...
WE HAVE A LOT OF INTERESTING FEATURES ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS
AFTERNOON. A DRYLINE WAS RETREATING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. A STATIONARY FRONT WAS FOUND
EAST/WEST ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. A JET STREAK IN THE UPPER
LEVELS WAS APPROACHING THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. ALL OF THESE FEATURES WILL PROBABLY HELP THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL
LIKELY BE SEVERE WITH THE GREATEST THREAT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE PANHANDLES.

NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES FROM CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. HAVE ADDED SOME POPS FURTHER
WEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED MOVE INTO THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLES BY THUNDERSTORM INITIATION TIME WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE DRYLINE ENDS UP FURTHER EAST THAN
WHAT THE CURRENT MODELS SHOW GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES ACROSS THE REGION. AGAIN
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS THE MAIN THREATS.

WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FROM THURSDAY ONWARD AS A DRIER AIR
MASS FILTERS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.

FIRE WEATHER...
ANY ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY WILL
BE CONDITIONAL ON HOW MUCH AND HOW WIDESPREAD THE RAIN IS TONIGHT...
SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FIRE WEATHER WATCHES FOR NOW. IF WE DO NOT
SEE MUCH RAIN...THEN AREAS WEST OF A GUYMON TO AMARILLO LINE COULD
SEE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY. ELEVATED TO NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE
WEST AND CENTRAL PANHANDLES ON THURSDAY...BUT THE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER. THE WINDS MAY BE A BIT STRONGER ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 20 PERCENT.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

11/08

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
308 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-290815-
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-
GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
308 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE THE
MAIN HAZARDS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN ALSO NOT BE RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THESE STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS.

ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY THIS EVENING.

AREA FIRE MANAGERS AND EMERGENCY OFFICIALS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR
POSSIBLE ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

GOEHRING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
630 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0609 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 NNW AMARILLO          35.26N 101.87W
05/28/2013  M61 MPH          POTTER             TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

CORRECTED EVENT TIME...EVENT

EVENT NUMBER AMA1300475

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