Severe Thunderstorm Warning 37, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
236 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

.DISCUSSION...
WE HAVE A LOT OF INTERESTING FEATURES ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS
AFTERNOON. A DRYLINE WAS RETREATING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. A STATIONARY FRONT WAS FOUND
EAST/WEST ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. A JET STREAK IN THE UPPER
LEVELS WAS APPROACHING THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. ALL OF THESE FEATURES WILL PROBABLY HELP THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL
LIKELY BE SEVERE WITH THE GREATEST THREAT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE PANHANDLES.

NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES FROM CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. HAVE ADDED SOME POPS FURTHER
WEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED MOVE INTO THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLES BY THUNDERSTORM INITIATION TIME WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE DRYLINE ENDS UP FURTHER EAST THAN
WHAT THE CURRENT MODELS SHOW GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES ACROSS THE REGION. AGAIN
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS THE MAIN THREATS.

WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FROM THURSDAY ONWARD AS A DRIER AIR
MASS FILTERS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ANY ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY WILL
BE CONDITIONAL ON HOW MUCH AND HOW WIDESPREAD THE RAIN IS TONIGHT...
SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FIRE WEATHER WATCHES FOR NOW. IF WE DO NOT
SEE MUCH RAIN...THEN AREAS WEST OF A GUYMON TO AMARILLO LINE COULD
SEE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY. ELEVATED TO NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE
WEST AND CENTRAL PANHANDLES ON THURSDAY...BUT THE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER. THE WINDS MAY BE A BIT STRONGER ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 20 PERCENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                65  93  60  91  62 /  30  10  10   5   5
BEAVER OK                  69  88  64  93  60 /  40  30  30  10   5
BOISE CITY OK              57  93  55  91  57 /  20   5   0   5   5
BORGER TX                  70  93  64  95  68 /  30  10  10   5   5
BOYS RANCH TX              66  96  57  93  59 /  30   5   0   5   5
CANYON TX                  64  93  58  93  61 /  30  10  10   5   5
CLARENDON TX               65  86  64  95  64 /  50  20  30   5   5
DALHART TX                 57  94  53  95  57 /  20   5   0   5   5
GUYMON OK                  66  96  57  93  59 /  30  10  10   5   5
HEREFORD TX                62  93  57  93  61 /  30   5   0   5   5
LIPSCOMB TX                71  86  64  92  64 /  40  30  30  10   5
PAMPA TX                   69  87  60  93  65 /  30  20  30   5   5
SHAMROCK TX                68  87  66  96  65 /  50  30  30   5   5
WELLINGTON TX              70  88  69  98  66 /  50  30  40  10   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

16/15

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
308 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-290815-
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-
GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
308 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE THE
MAIN HAZARDS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN ALSO NOT BE RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THESE STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS.

ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY THIS EVENING.

AREA FIRE MANAGERS AND EMERGENCY OFFICIALS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR
POSSIBLE ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

GOEHRING

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