Severe Thunderstorm Warning 153, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
554 PM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

.UPDATE...
FORECAST UPDATED TO INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR ALL OF THE
PANHANDLES THROUGH MIDNIGHT. ALSO INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN
PANHANDLES BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. HEAVY RAIN...POSSIBLY LEADING TO
FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING...WILL ALSO REMAIN A CONCERN WITH THESE
STORMS.

KB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CDT WED AUG 7 2013/

DISCUSSION...
INSTABILITY...SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL
ALL HELP TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO
CAUSE SOME FLOODING ISSUES...BUT THE STORMS WILL BE MOVING A LITTLE
FASTER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

SEVERAL SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY HELP CONVECTION TO FIRE
AGAIN THURSDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION AS AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND
COMBINES WITH THE MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND SURFACE
BOUNDARIES.

THE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY TO PULL MOUNTAIN CONVECTION THIS WAY. OTHERWISE...ANY
LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY FIRE CONVECTION AS
WELL.

SUNDAY MAY BE A DOWN DAY FOR CONVECTION AS THE UPPER HIGH
SHIFTS WEST OVER WEST TEXAS FOR A DAY...SO WILL LEAVE THIS DAY
DRY.

THE UPPER HIGH MOVES BACK OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY MONDAY WHICH
WILL PUT THE PANHANDLES IN NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS FLOW WILL
AGAIN BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE REGION.

MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NEXT
DAY TO DAY AND A HALF. FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH THE GFS AS IT SEEMS TO
HANDLE CURRENT SITUATION THE BEST.

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND GIVEN THE RAIN CHANCES AND THE FACT THAT LOWEST RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

11/08

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
600 PM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-081100-
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-
GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
600 PM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH HAIL UP TO TWO
INCHES IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE PANHANDLES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A FEW STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
WHICH MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

KB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
605 PM CDT WED AUG 07 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     HAIL             4 NNW BOISE CITY        36.78N 102.55W
08/07/2013  E2.75 INCH       CIMARRON           OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1300743

COCKRELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
608 PM CDT WED AUG 07 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0604 PM     HAIL             7 W KEYES               36.81N 102.38W
08/07/2013  E1.75 INCH       CIMARRON           OK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1300744

MOULTON/SPENCER

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
635 PM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

OKZ002-080000-
TEXAS OK-
635 PM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN TEXAS COUNTY UNTIL
700 PM CDT...

AT 631 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES EAST OF HOOKER...OR 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
LIBERAL...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  TYRONE...             HOOKER...             BAKER...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV
STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3685 10099 3678 10120 3700 10133 3700 10105
TIME...MOT...LOC 2336Z 158DEG 16KT 3690 10114

SCHNEIDER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
638 PM CDT WED AUG 07 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     HAIL             KEYES                   36.81N 102.25W
08/07/2013  E1.75 INCH       CIMARRON           OK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1300747

ABM