Severe Thunderstorm Warning 150, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
254 PM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

.DISCUSSION...
INSTABILITY...SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL
ALL HELP TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO
CAUSE SOME FLOODING ISSUES...BUT THE STORMS WILL BE MOVING A LITTLE
FASTER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

SEVERAL SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY HELP CONVECTION TO FIRE
AGAIN THURSDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION AS AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND
COMBINES WITH THE MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND SURFACE
BOUNDARIES.

THE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY TO PULL MOUNTAIN CONVECTION THIS WAY. OTHERWISE...ANY
LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY FIRE CONVECTION AS
WELL.

SUNDAY MAY BE A DOWN DAY FOR CONVECTION AS THE UPPER HIGH
SHIFTS WEST OVER WEST TEXAS FOR A DAY...SO WILL LEAVE THIS DAY
DRY.

THE UPPER HIGH MOVES BACK OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY MONDAY WHICH
WILL PUT THE PANHANDLES IN NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS FLOW WILL
AGAIN BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE REGION.

MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NEXT
DAY TO DAY AND A HALF. FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH THE GFS AS IT SEEMS TO
HANDLE CURRENT SITUATION THE BEST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND GIVEN THE RAIN CHANCES AND THE FACT THAT LOWEST RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                67  90  63  84  62 /  50  20  20  20  20
BEAVER OK                  70  85  65  83  63 /  70  40  40  20  20
BOISE CITY OK              64  85  60  78  60 /  70  40  30  20  20
BORGER TX                  69  92  67  86  66 /  50  20  30  20  20
BOYS RANCH TX              68  94  66  86  64 /  50  20  30  20  20
CANYON TX                  67  92  65  86  63 /  40  20  20  20  20
CLARENDON TX               70  96  67  86  65 /  40  20  20  20  20
DALHART TX                 64  87  62  81  60 /  60  30  30  20  20
GUYMON OK                  67  86  65  81  61 /  70  40  30  20  20
HEREFORD TX                65  92  64  85  62 /  40  20  20  20  20
LIPSCOMB TX                70  90  66  82  63 /  60  30  30  20  20
PAMPA TX                   67  90  64  81  63 /  50  20  20  20  20
SHAMROCK TX                69  96  69  88  64 /  50  20  20  20  20
WELLINGTON TX              70 101  70  91  67 /  50  20  20  20  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

03/15

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
335 PM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-081100-
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-
GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
335 PM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND FLASH
FLOODING THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A FEW STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
WHICH MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

GOEHRING

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
436 PM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

TXZ006-011-072230-
HARTLEY TX-OLDHAM TX-
436 PM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN OLDHAM AND
SOUTHWESTERN HARTLEY COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

AT 434 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 16 MILES NORTH OF GLENRIO...OR 16 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF NARA VISA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHWESTERN OLDHAM COUNTY.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 3549 10305 3573 10294 3561 10264 3528 10291
      3534 10305
TIME...MOT...LOC 2136Z 207DEG 10KT 3540 10296

SCHNEIDER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
446 PM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

OKZ001-072245-
CIMARRON OK-
446 PM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL CIMARRON COUNTY UNTIL 545
PM CDT...

AT 442 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES WEST OF BOISE CITY...MOVING NORTH AT 10
MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  BOISE CITY...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 3700 10234 3664 10249 3668 10271 3700 10268
TIME...MOT...LOC 2146Z 192DEG 9KT 3675 10258

SCHNEIDER/