Storm Warning 7, NWS Juneau, AK

526 
FZAK52 PAJK 261249
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 26 2013 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-270100-
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 26 2013 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A COMPLEX STORM FORCE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL DRIFT N AND
WEAKEN THROUGH TUE NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT OVER THE SE
GULF WILL MOVE N THROUGH THE AREA BUT WEAKEN THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE NE INTO THE EASTERN GULF WED. 

$$

PKZ041-270100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 26 2013 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 26 FT. SW SWELL. PERIODS OF RAIN.
.WED...S GALE TO 35 KT BECOMING 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 21 FT
SUBSIDING TO 19 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU...S STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-270100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 26 2013 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. PERIODS OF RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 25 FT SUBSIDING TO
23 FT LATE. SW SWELL. PERIODS OF RAIN.
.WED...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-270100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 26 2013 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 20 FT
SUBSIDING TO 18 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING S 30 KT LATE. SEAS 23 FT. SW
SWELL. PERIODS OF RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO GALE TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-270100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 26 2013 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT SUBSIDING TO 19 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 22 FT. PERIODS OF
RAIN.
.WED...SE GALE TO 35 KT BECOMING 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16
FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-270100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 26 2013 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 21 FT.
PERIODS OF RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT SUBSIDING TO 19 FT LATE.
PERIODS OF RAIN. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT
SUBSIDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
334 PM AKST MON FEB 25 2013

.SHORT TERM...HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALREADY MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE PANHANDLE. THE
LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPING AROUND IT
CAN BE CLEARLY SEEN MOVING INTO THE GULF WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE FRONTAL BAND WILL BRING WITH IT STORM FORCE WINDS TO THE
OUTSIDE WATERS TONIGHT...STORM FORCE WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
MEASURED BY ONE OF THE POLAR ORBITING SATELLITES WITH THIS FRONT. THE
WIND AND RAIN WILL REACH THE SOUTHERN COAST LATE THIS EVENING AND
SPREAD INLAND THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE STRONG WIND
HEADLINES FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER COAST ZONES INCLUDING KETCHIKAN
WHERE GUSTS OF 40-45MPH ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THE SLIGHT OFFSHORE COMPONENT OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
CAUSE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION TO BE DELAYED OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES
UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS WILL HAVE A CHANCE
TO FALL BELOW FREEZING AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT DUE TO BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER. THEREFORE EXPECTING PRECIP TO START OUT AS SNOW FOR
THOSE AREAS. PLUS WITH A NORTH SURFACE WIND IN HAINES AND
SKAGWAY...THEIR TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL ENOUGH FOR SNOW
ALONG THE HIGHWAYS THROUGH THE DAY. ALTHOUGH...QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE
LOW ENOUGH THAT SNOWFALL WILL BE LIMITED TO 1-2IN. HAVE ALSO
INCLUDED A STRONG WIND HEADLINE FOR SKAGWAY TUESDAY MORNING FOR
NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 40MPH AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

MADE SMALL CHANGES TO THE OVERALL FORECAST. DID INCREASE THE WINDS
FOR A CLARENCE AND CROSS SOUND MARINE AREAS TO 50KT WITH THE
FRONT. USED MAINLY THE NAM12 AND LOCAL WRF FOR CHANGES FOLLOWED BY
ADJUSTMENTS FOR LOCAL EFFECTS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM.../ TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY /THE STRONG ZONAL FLOW
STARTS OUT DOMINATING WEATHER PATTERN INTO WEDNESDAY WITH QUICK
MOVING WEATHER SYSTEMS OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC AND GULF OF ALASKA.
A DIGGING WAVE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY IS RESULTING IN A LONG
WAVE TROUGH ABOUT 160W...HOWEVER IT IS NOT VERY ANCHORED. SMALLER
WAVES IN THE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT THROUGH KEEPING A NEARLY
CONTINUOUS LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POP VALUES TO THE WEEKEND OVER
SOUTHEAST ALASKA.

NORTHERN PANHANDLE SECTIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PLAY THAT RAIN TO
SNOW GAME...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNEL. MAINLY
JUST RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF. THERE MAY BE A FEW TIME FRAMES
THAT THE AMOUNTS ARE LOCALLY HEAVY BUT AM NOT ANTICIPATING FLOODING
ISSUES WITH THIS EVENT.

IN THE LONG RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE SUGGESTING A
STRONG LOW WEAKENING FROM SATURDAY INTO MONDAY AS IT MOVES FROM
THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TO THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA BY MONDAY.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR AKZ023-027.
         STRONG WIND FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR AKZ022-
     028.
         STRONG WIND TUESDAY MORNING FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ022-036-042-043-051-052.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-021-033-035-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-031-032-034-053.

&&

HANNON/BEZENEK