Gale Warning 76, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
334 PM AKST MON FEB 25 2013

.SHORT TERM...HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALREADY MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE PANHANDLE. THE
LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPING AROUND IT
CAN BE CLEARLY SEEN MOVING INTO THE GULF WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE FRONTAL BAND WILL BRING WITH IT STORM FORCE WINDS TO THE
OUTSIDE WATERS TONIGHT...STORM FORCE WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
MEASURED BY ONE OF THE POLAR ORBITING SATELLITES WITH THIS FRONT. THE
WIND AND RAIN WILL REACH THE SOUTHERN COAST LATE THIS EVENING AND
SPREAD INLAND THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE STRONG WIND
HEADLINES FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER COAST ZONES INCLUDING KETCHIKAN
WHERE GUSTS OF 40-45MPH ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THE SLIGHT OFFSHORE COMPONENT OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
CAUSE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION TO BE DELAYED OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES
UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS WILL HAVE A CHANCE
TO FALL BELOW FREEZING AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT DUE TO BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER. THEREFORE EXPECTING PRECIP TO START OUT AS SNOW FOR
THOSE AREAS. PLUS WITH A NORTH SURFACE WIND IN HAINES AND
SKAGWAY...THEIR TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL ENOUGH FOR SNOW
ALONG THE HIGHWAYS THROUGH THE DAY. ALTHOUGH...QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE
LOW ENOUGH THAT SNOWFALL WILL BE LIMITED TO 1-2IN. HAVE ALSO
INCLUDED A STRONG WIND HEADLINE FOR SKAGWAY TUESDAY MORNING FOR
NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 40MPH AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

MADE SMALL CHANGES TO THE OVERALL FORECAST. DID INCREASE THE WINDS
FOR A CLARENCE AND CROSS SOUND MARINE AREAS TO 50KT WITH THE
FRONT. USED MAINLY THE NAM12 AND LOCAL WRF FOR CHANGES FOLLOWED BY
ADJUSTMENTS FOR LOCAL EFFECTS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM.../ TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY /THE STRONG ZONAL FLOW
STARTS OUT DOMINATING WEATHER PATTERN INTO WEDNESDAY WITH QUICK
MOVING WEATHER SYSTEMS OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC AND GULF OF ALASKA.
A DIGGING WAVE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY IS RESULTING IN A LONG
WAVE TROUGH ABOUT 160W...HOWEVER IT IS NOT VERY ANCHORED. SMALLER
WAVES IN THE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT THROUGH KEEPING A NEARLY
CONTINUOUS LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POP VALUES TO THE WEEKEND OVER
SOUTHEAST ALASKA.

NORTHERN PANHANDLE SECTIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PLAY THAT RAIN TO
SNOW GAME...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNEL. MAINLY
JUST RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF. THERE MAY BE A FEW TIME FRAMES
THAT THE AMOUNTS ARE LOCALLY HEAVY BUT AM NOT ANTICIPATING FLOODING
ISSUES WITH THIS EVENT.

IN THE LONG RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE SUGGESTING A
STRONG LOW WEAKENING FROM SATURDAY INTO MONDAY AS IT MOVES FROM
THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TO THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA BY MONDAY.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR AKZ023-027.
         STRONG WIND FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR AKZ022-
     028.
         STRONG WIND TUESDAY MORNING FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ022-036-042-043-051-052.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-021-033-035-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-031-032-034-053.

&&

HANNON/BEZENEK