Gale Warning 9, NWS Juneau, AK

731 
FZAK67 PAJK 250633 AAA
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
933 PM AKST THU JAN 24 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-260045-
933 PM AKST THU JAN 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A GALE FORCE LOW IN THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF ALASKA WILL TRACK NORTH
TO A LOCATION WEST OF SITKA BY FRI AFTERNOON...WEAKENING ALONG THE
WAY. THE LOW WILL THEN DIMINISH TO A TROUGH ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
FRI NIGHT AS ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OFFSHORE OF YAKUTAT INTO SAT. 

$$

PKZ310-260045-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
933 PM AKST THU JAN 24 2013

UPDATED

.REST OF TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT. S SWELL.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
333 PM AKST THU JAN 24 2013

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS LOW FINALLY MAKING IT INTO
SOUTHEAST GULF WITH CIRRUS ENCROACHING THE SKIES OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES. GALES OVER THE SOUTH...WITH EXCEPTION OF CAPE
DECISION HAVE NOT MATERIALIZED AS OF YET. LATE OBS FROM HYDABURG
OF 33 KT...THUS WE HAVE STRONG WINDS. WINDS WILL ONLY INCREASE
THIS EVENING AND PEAK OVERNIGHT IN ZONES 23, 27, AND 28. BOTH NAM
AND MM5 SUGGESTING GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THESE ZONES AND
ADJACENT WATERS TONIGHT. NAM WINDS AT 850 ALSO STILL REVEALING
850 JET UP TO 60 KTS THIS EVENING FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS.
GALES HAVE BEEN PLACED FOR MARINE ZONES THE SOUTHERN OUTSIDE
WATERS AND NOW INCLUDING ZONE 43 FOR ANTICIPATION OF SOME
FAVORABLE OUTFLOW DIRECTION FROM CROSS SOUND. THUS CROSS SOUND
WILL ALSO SEE GALE THIS EVENING SLOWLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT AS
LOW IN THE GULF BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS NORTH. SOUTHERN
OCEAN ENTRANCE PASSAGES ALSO WILL SEE GALE OVERNIGHT WITH
CLARENCE WINDS LASTING GALE FORCE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...STILL WAITING FOR LYNN CANAL DIRECTIONS TO FLIP...AND
FLIP IT SHOULD TO NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASING OVERNIGHT
TO SCA LEVEL. STEPHENS PASSAGE WILL FLIP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
LATER TONIGHT AND NORTHERN CHATHAM SHOULD DO THE SAME AROUND
DAYBREAK. ON THE FLIP SIDE...WINDS AROUND THE NORTHEAST GULF LAND
AREAS SHOULD GO LIGHT FRIDAY. FRIDAY...A WEAK RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD WEST FROM BC AND WILL THUS SHIFT LYNN CANAL YET AGAIN TO
SOUTH.

 PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER, THERE
HAS BEEN LIGHT PERIODS OF RAIN ALL DAY OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
ALASKA. ORIGINAL INTENT WAS TO HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER MUCH OF
THE NORTHERN ZONES BUT AS THE ROADS ARE REPORTING FLURRIES AND
LYNN CANAL HAS HAD FEW BREAKS TODAY FROM PRECIPITATION, ELECTED
TO GO LATE WITH HIGH POPS, LIGHT PRECIP...WORDING FLURRIES AND
SPRINKLES FROM HOONAH NORTHWARD INTO LYNN CANAL. FOR JUNEAU
ELECTED TO GO WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN WITH HEAVIER STUFF FOR
FRIDAY. CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES FROM JUNEAU SOUTH SHOULD KEEP
MOST SPOTS LIQUID PRECIP. PAST EXPERIENCE WITH MIXING THE
PREVIOUS DAYSHIFTS HAS NOT YIELDED MUCH FRUIT. ALSO DECIDED TO
PLACE SOME PATCHY FOG IN YAKUTAT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR
POTENTIAL CLEARING AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST. DID LOWER TEMPERATURES HERE TWO OR THREE DEGREES. FOR
JUNEAU ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG THIS EVENING AS SOME FORMED DEEP IN
THE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT, THINK JUST ENOUGH STIRRING
FROM THE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE COAST WILL DISSIPATE ANY FOG THAT
DID FORM.

 MODELS OF CHOICE WERE AGAIN THE ECMWF AND THE NAM. OVERALL
SYSTEM ARRIVING SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED EARLIER...BUT
STILL THINK MAGNITUDES WILL BE GOOD FOR TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE GOOD
FOR SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND SHAKY ON THE DETAILS.

&&

.LONG TERM...MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG RANGE IS WHEN A COLD AIR
OUTBREAK WILL SHOW UP AND WHEN IT WILL DEPART THE PANHANDLE THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS STILL IN DECENT AGREEMENT INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH THE YUKON HIGH AND ACCOMPANYING UPPER TROUGH
DIVING SOUTH THIS WEEKEND. NORTH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH SAT NIGHT AND WILL QUICKLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY UP
TO GALE AND EVEN STORM FORCE IN LYNN CANAL BY SUN AFTERNOON.
NORTHERLY SMALL CRAFTS WILL INFECT MOST OF THE INNER CHANNELS BY
LATE SUN NIGHT AS THE YUKON HIGH CONTINUES TO SPREAD ITS INFLUENCE
OVER THE PANHANDLE. GFS WAS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER EARLY ON AS IT WAS
GOING TOO SW WITH THE REMAINING LOW IN THE SE GULF AND WAS A
LITTLE TOO WEAK ON THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST
MOUNTAINS. DECIDED ON USING THE NAM AND EC FOR ITS DETAILS IN THAT
AREA.

THE MAJOR PROBLEMS START SHOWING UP MON AND INTO THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE MODELS TRY AND FIGURE OUT HOW LONG THE
ARCTIC AIR STICKS AROUND. THE 0Z ECMWF WAS ONE OF THE DRIEST
AND COLDEST OF THE MODEL RUNS WITH A GENERALLY DRY FORECAST INTO
MID WEEK COURTESY OF A VERY SHARP UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF. THE
12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF DID A COMPLETE 180 AND FLATTENED THE UPPER
RIDGE CONSIDERABLY. THE RESULT IS A VERY MOIST FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE PANHANDLE ON MON AND WITH THE COLD AIR STILL IN PLACE
THIS WILL BRING A RATHER SIGNIFICANT SNOW DUMP TO THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE. SINCE THIS WAS A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE OVER THE PREVIOUS
RUN I DID NOT PUT MUCH WEIGHT ON THE 12Z SOLUTION AND WILL WAIT TO
SEE IF FUTURE RUNS CONTINUE THIS SCENARIO. THE GFS WAS SOMEWHERE
IN BETWEEN THE 0Z AND 12Z ECMWF ON HOW LONG THE COLD AIR STICKS
AROUND AND HOW MOIST IT WILL BE. IN ALL CASES THE EXTENDED PERIOD
IS GENERALLY WARMER AND WETTER AS THE ARCTIC HIGH GETS PUSHED TO
THE EAST AND THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DIMINISH ON MON NIGHT AND
TUES. A FEW WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST THOUGHT THE REST OF THE EXTENDED BUT TIMING AND POSITION
OF THE WAVES ARE DEBATED. GENERALLY DECIDED ON A GFS AND 0Z ECMWF
BLEND ON MONDAY AND MON NIGHT THEN USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR THE REST
OF THE LONG RANGE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE UP TO SUN
THEN DROPS RAPIDLY TO POOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND FROM 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
     AKZ023.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ028.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-033-035-036-041>043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-021-031-034-051-052.

&&

JWA/EAL