Storm Warning 7, NWS Fairbanks, AK

988 
FZAK51 PAFG 151204
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
304 AM AKST FRI NOV 15 2013

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-160315-
304 AM AKST FRI NOV 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 987 MB LOW NEAR 82N/148W WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN.
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE LOW WILL BE OVER THE SOUTH BEAUFORT
SEA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING WEST ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE.

$$

PKZ225-160315-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
304 AM AKST FRI NOV 15 2013

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...W WINDS 20 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW
SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-160315-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
304 AM AKST FRI NOV 15 2013

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WINDS INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-160315-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
304 AM AKST FRI NOV 15 2013

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON IN ICE FREE WATERS...

.TODAY...W WINDS 20 KT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...NW WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...NW WINDS 15 KT. SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...NW WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-160315-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
304 AM AKST FRI NOV 15 2013

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...W WINDS 25 KT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. SNOW.
.SAT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SNOW.
.SUN...NW WINDS 20 KT. SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...W WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-160315-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
304 AM AKST FRI NOV 15 2013

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...W WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW.
.SAT...NW WINDS 20 KT. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. SNOW.
.SUN...NW WINDS 20 KT. SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...W WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE...SW WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

SDB NOV 13

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
259 AM AKST THU NOV 14 2013

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...ALL HAVE PRETTY SIMILAR SOLUTIONS NOW. HARD TO DECIPHER
WHICH SHORTWAVES WILL BE IMPACTING THE INTERIOR IN THE SHORT TERM.
WILL USE THE GFS PRIMARILY SINCE IT HAS INITIALIZED BEST ON THIS
LAST RUN. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHALLENGE. MOS WOULD
HAVE FAIRBANKS IN THE LOW 20S THIS MORNING WHICH IS ABOUT 20
DEGREES COLDER THAN WHAT THE AIRPORT IS REPORTING.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...MASSIVE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS OVER THE STATE
FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC IS FLEXING A LITTLE WITH A TROUGH DIGGING
DOWN THE EASTERN SIDE OF IT. FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY ZONAL OVER THE
FLATTENED RIDGE TODAY BECOMING MORE OF A NORTHWEST FLOW THIS
MORNING. A SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ARCTIC AND MOVE DOWN
THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE TO EXTEND FROM FORT YUKON TO KING
SALMON THIS MORNING...THEN CONTINUES SOUTHEAST. A SECOND LESS
DEFINED SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA AND MOVE DOWN
THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO EXTEND
FROM DEADHORSE TO UNALAKLEET...THEN CONTINUE SOUTHEAST TO EXTEND
FROM FROM FORT YUKON TO ANCHORAGE BY LATE THURSDAY EVENING.
AT 850 HPA...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL RULE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO AROUND 13 BELOW CELSIUS
BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

SURFACE...A LOW COMPLEX OVER THE NORTHWEST ARCTIC COAST WILL MOVE
EAST TO NEAR DEMARCATION POINT BY LATE THIS MORNING WITH A STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE STATE. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL LIE FROM OLD CROW YT TO TANANA TO MARSHALL AND
SOUTHWEST...MOVING EAST TO LIE FROM FORT MCPHERSON YT TO CHICKEN
TO LIME VILLAGE AND SOUTHWEST...THEN DRAGGING OVER THE EXTREME
SOUTHEAST INTERIOR AND ACROSS THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. 1027MB RIDGE
DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH A 1025MB CENTER LOCATED OVER
THE CENTRAL ALASKA RANGE. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. NORTH FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE WEST COAST FRIDAY
NIGHT AND REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE THROUGH
SATURDAY.

ARCTIC COAST...PRETTY ACTIVE TODAY WITH SOME OCCASIONAL FREEZING
DRIZZLE OR RAIN THEN SNOW AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AS THE LOW
MOVES RAPIDLY EAST WITH STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND IT. HIGH SURF ON THE NORTHWEST COAST WILL SETTLE
DOWN BY AFTERNOON. POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE SOME ELEVATED WATER
LEVELS ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST AS THE RELATIVELY DEEP LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THE LOW TRANSITS THROUGH PRETTY FAST WITH A
SHORT FETCH AND DURATION SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY ISSUES TO ARISE.
WILL HOLD ON TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR 205 THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WILL EXTEND THE OTHERS OUT TO FRIDAY MORNING.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...EXPECT WINDS TO SHUT OFF PRETTY
QUICKLY FROM THE SEWARD PENINSULA SOUTH THIS MORNING...THEN SHUT
OFF TO THE NORTH BY AROUND NOON. WITH TIDES ON THE EBB THIS
MORNING COASTAL FLOODING SHOULD END. WITH THE CHANGE IN OVERALL
PATTERN THIS LOOKS TO BE THE END FOR COASTAL FLOOD ISSUES FOR A
WHILE. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOOK FOR
SNOW ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

INTERIOR...WELL THE WARM AIR MADE IT INTO FAIRBANKS AND WE HAVE
SOME GOOD FREEZING RAIN OCCURRING AT 1AM. STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WILL LET UP THROUGH THE DAY. GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEGINS TODAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH SNOW DEVELOPING BEHIND THE
FRONT. EXPECT MOST AREAS TO SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ214.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ207-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ213.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ217-AKZ218-AKZ220-AKZ222-AKZ223-
AKZ224-AKZ225-AKZ226.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ206.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ225-PKZ230.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ240-PKZ245.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235.
&&

SDB NOV 13

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1145 AM AKST THU NOV 14 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG CIRCLE HOT SPRINGS STAT 65.47N 144.69W
11/14/2013                                      AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            MINOR DAMAGE TO SIDING ON BARN BY PYLWOOD RIPPED OFF IT,
            FLAG POLE BENT WITH FLAG MISSING AND LOOSE ITEMS
            DISPLACED. TIMING OF EVENT APPROXIMATE AS WIND GUSTS
            OCCURRED OVERNIGHT.

&&

BBARTOS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1255 PM AKST THU NOV 14 2013

AKZ222-151000-
MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY-
INCLUDING...FAIRBANKS...FORT WAINWRIGHT...EIELSON AFB...ESTER...
NORTH POLE...MOOSE CREEK...TWO RIVERS...FOX...CHATANIKA...
CHENA HOT SPRINGS...SOURDOUGH CAMP
1255 PM AKST THU NOV 14 2013

...WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON IN FAIRBANKS...

THE WINTER STORM THAT STARTED EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS
FAIRBANKS WILL TAPER OFF BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER 2 INCHES
OF SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH 6 PM TODAY. PATCHY FREEZING RAIN IS
ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH 3PM THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT BLOWING SNOW TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES OF 2
MILES OR LESS AT TIMES RESULTING FROM THE WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25
MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

THE WINDS...SNOW...AND BLOWING SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF
BETWEEN 3 AND 6 PM TODAY.

THE STORM BEGAN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING IN FAIRBANKS WITH ABOUT 5
HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN THAT ACCUMULATED NEARLY TWO TENTHS TO HALF
OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATING ON TREES AND ROADS. THE FREEZING
RAIN CHANGED TO HEAVY SNOW ABOUT 10 AM WEDNESDAY. THE HEAVY SNOW
CONTINUED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO
FREEZING DRIZZLE WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS
DEVELOPED AT 10 PM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES SOARED UP
TO ABOVE 40 DEGREES. BY MIDNIGHT WIND GUSTS RANGED FROM 40 TO 50
MPH IN THE FAIRBANKS AREA AND HAVE CONTINUED THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE WINDS HAVE BEEN ALMOST AS STRONG IN TOWN AS IN THE
HILLS. THE STRONG WINDS BLEW DOWN NUMEROUS TREES ACROSS THE
AREA AND HAS LEAD TO THE POWER OUTAGES THROUGHOUT THE
FAIRBANKS...NENANA...AND NORTH POLE COMMUNITIES ACCORDING TO THE
ELECTRIC COMPANY EARLIER THIS MORNING.

A DETAILED LOCAL STORM REPORT SUMMARY WILL BE AVAILABLE EARLY THIS
EVENING.