Coastal Flood Statement 2, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
259 AM AKST THU NOV 14 2013

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...ALL HAVE PRETTY SIMILAR SOLUTIONS NOW. HARD TO DECIPHER
WHICH SHORTWAVES WILL BE IMPACTING THE INTERIOR IN THE SHORT TERM.
WILL USE THE GFS PRIMARILY SINCE IT HAS INITIALIZED BEST ON THIS
LAST RUN. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHALLENGE. MOS WOULD
HAVE FAIRBANKS IN THE LOW 20S THIS MORNING WHICH IS ABOUT 20
DEGREES COLDER THAN WHAT THE AIRPORT IS REPORTING.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...MASSIVE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS OVER THE STATE
FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC IS FLEXING A LITTLE WITH A TROUGH DIGGING
DOWN THE EASTERN SIDE OF IT. FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY ZONAL OVER THE
FLATTENED RIDGE TODAY BECOMING MORE OF A NORTHWEST FLOW THIS
MORNING. A SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ARCTIC AND MOVE DOWN
THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE TO EXTEND FROM FORT YUKON TO KING
SALMON THIS MORNING...THEN CONTINUES SOUTHEAST. A SECOND LESS
DEFINED SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA AND MOVE DOWN
THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO EXTEND
FROM DEADHORSE TO UNALAKLEET...THEN CONTINUE SOUTHEAST TO EXTEND
FROM FROM FORT YUKON TO ANCHORAGE BY LATE THURSDAY EVENING.
AT 850 HPA...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL RULE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO AROUND 13 BELOW CELSIUS
BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

SURFACE...A LOW COMPLEX OVER THE NORTHWEST ARCTIC COAST WILL MOVE
EAST TO NEAR DEMARCATION POINT BY LATE THIS MORNING WITH A STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE STATE. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL LIE FROM OLD CROW YT TO TANANA TO MARSHALL AND
SOUTHWEST...MOVING EAST TO LIE FROM FORT MCPHERSON YT TO CHICKEN
TO LIME VILLAGE AND SOUTHWEST...THEN DRAGGING OVER THE EXTREME
SOUTHEAST INTERIOR AND ACROSS THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. 1027MB RIDGE
DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH A 1025MB CENTER LOCATED OVER
THE CENTRAL ALASKA RANGE. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. NORTH FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE WEST COAST FRIDAY
NIGHT AND REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE THROUGH
SATURDAY.

ARCTIC COAST...PRETTY ACTIVE TODAY WITH SOME OCCASIONAL FREEZING
DRIZZLE OR RAIN THEN SNOW AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AS THE LOW
MOVES RAPIDLY EAST WITH STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND IT. HIGH SURF ON THE NORTHWEST COAST WILL SETTLE
DOWN BY AFTERNOON. POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE SOME ELEVATED WATER
LEVELS ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST AS THE RELATIVELY DEEP LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THE LOW TRANSITS THROUGH PRETTY FAST WITH A
SHORT FETCH AND DURATION SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY ISSUES TO ARISE.
WILL HOLD ON TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR 205 THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WILL EXTEND THE OTHERS OUT TO FRIDAY MORNING.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...EXPECT WINDS TO SHUT OFF PRETTY
QUICKLY FROM THE SEWARD PENINSULA SOUTH THIS MORNING...THEN SHUT
OFF TO THE NORTH BY AROUND NOON. WITH TIDES ON THE EBB THIS
MORNING COASTAL FLOODING SHOULD END. WITH THE CHANGE IN OVERALL
PATTERN THIS LOOKS TO BE THE END FOR COASTAL FLOOD ISSUES FOR A
WHILE. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOOK FOR
SNOW ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

INTERIOR...WELL THE WARM AIR MADE IT INTO FAIRBANKS AND WE HAVE
SOME GOOD FREEZING RAIN OCCURRING AT 1AM. STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WILL LET UP THROUGH THE DAY. GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEGINS TODAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH SNOW DEVELOPING BEHIND THE
FRONT. EXPECT MOST AREAS TO SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ214.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ207-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ213.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ217-AKZ218-AKZ220-AKZ222-AKZ223-
AKZ224-AKZ225-AKZ226.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ206.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ225-PKZ230.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ240-PKZ245.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235.
&&

SDB NOV 13