Storm Warning 4, NWS Fairbanks, AK

999 
FZAK51 PAFG 080040
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
340 PM AKST THU NOV 7 2013

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-081545-
340 PM AKST THU NOV 7 2013

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA WILL DRIFT EAST ON
FRIDAY. A TROUGH ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST WILL STRENGTHEN THURSDAY
NIGHT. A 969 MB LOW OVER EASTERN RUSSIA WILL TRACK NORTH TO NEAR
WRANGEL ISLAND FRIDAY EVENING AT 981 MB. THE LOW WILL BE 976 MB
JUST NORTH OF THE ISLAND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A 977 MB LOW WILL BE
NEAR CAPE LISBURNE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL TRACK RAPIDLY
NORTH OF BARROW SATURDAY NIGHT.

$$

PKZ225-081545-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
340 PM AKST THU NOV 7 2013

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 45 KT DECREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. BLOWING
SNOW. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...S WINDS 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-081545-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
340 PM AKST THU NOV 7 2013

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 35 KT DECREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. BLOWING
SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. BLOWING SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. BLOWING SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...W WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...SW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-081545-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
340 PM AKST THU NOV 7 2013

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT DECREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. BLOWING 
SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. 
.SUN...SW WINDS 40 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WINDS 40 KT. 
.MON...W WINDS 30 KT. 
.TUE...SW WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-081545-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
340 PM AKST THU NOV 7 2013

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT DECREASING TO 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW.
.FRI...SE WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. 
.SAT...S WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. 
.SUN...SW WINDS 40 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WINDS 40 KT. 
.MON...SW WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE...SW WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-081545-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
340 PM AKST THU NOV 7 2013

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT DECREASING TO 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.FRI...E WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SAT...S WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. 
.SUN...SW WINDS 45 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WINDS 40 KT. 
.MON...SW WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE...SW WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

DA/CC NOV 13

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
413 PM AKST WED NOV 6 2013

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON POSITION...STRENGTH AND TRACKS OF
POTENT BERING SEA STORMS. STORM NUMBER ONE CURRENTLY A 956 MB LOW
LOCATED NEAR 60 N AND ALONG THE DATE LINE CONTINUES TO MOVE
NORTHWEST TO BE NEAR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF ANADYR AS
A 962 MB LOW THURSDAY MORNING AND AS A 967 MB LOW OVER THE
CHUKOTSK PENINSULA THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH WIND WARNING VERIFYING IN
ZONE 213 AND 212 WITH 61 KT GUST AT SHATOOLIK RIVER AND 53 KTS AT
GAMBLE...HOWEVER SENSOR FAILED WHILE THE STRONGEST WINDS WERE OVER
SST LAWRENCE ISLAND. STRONGEST WINDS HAVE YET TO REACH ZONE 211
WITH STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. STRONG WIND HEADLINES
HOISTED FOR ZONES 214...210...209...208...AND 201. PERIODS OF SNOW
HAVE MOVED IN OVER THE WEST COAST WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED. BRIEF PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY WITH BLOWING SNOW IN
THE AIR EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA AS TEMPS TO WARM TO
ALLOW SIG DRIFTING...LOFTING. EXPECT BLOWING SNOW FURTHER NORTH AS
FRONT APPROACHES.

SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE NORTH OF THE BERING STRAIT
TONIGHT WITH STORM FORCE WINDS EXPECTED IN MARINE ZONE 220 AND
GALES UP THE COAST. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT SOUTH OF
THE SEWARD PENINSULA WHERE HIGH SURF ADVISORIES HOISTED FOR
SOUTHEAST FACING SHORES OF ZONES 211...212 AND 213. HIGH SURF ALSO
HOISTED FOR ZONE 207 NORTH OF CAPE KRUSENSTERN AS WINDS NOW OFF
SHORE WILL BECOME PARALLEL TOMORROW MORNING AND SWITCH TO
FAVORABLE ON SHORE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. SOUTH
AND WEST FACING SHORES IN ZONES 211...212 AND 213 WILL SEE A
RETURN OF HIGH SURF AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY
EVENING. COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT INDICATED AS SURGE GUIDANCE TOPS
OUT AT AROUND 3 FEET OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS STORM
NUMBER ONE WEAKENS OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA.

STORM NUMBER TWO IS NOT NEAR AS INTENSE HOWEVER ITS TRACK WILL
PRODUCE SOUTHWEST WINDS OF SUFFICIENT STRENGTH AND OF LONG
DURATION AND OVER A LONG FETCH OF OPEN WATER TO RAISE POTENTIAL
FOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG SOUTH AND WEST FACING
COASTS...ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN NORTON SOUND BEGINNING SATURDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. STORM NUMBER TWO WILL MOVE SLOWER AND ALSO
HAS MUCH HIGHER QPF VALUES WITH IT SO SNOW...BLOWING SNOW...AND
FREEZING RAIN WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE WEST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THE WESTERN INTERIOR SATURDAY. MIXED PRECIP WILL PUSH INTO THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR SATURDAY EVENING. TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT PRECIP
TYPE...AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS...HOWEVER EASTERN NORTON SOUND IS IN
THE BULLS EYE FOR GREATEST STORM SURGE. AS STORM NUMBER TWO MOVES
NORTH INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA THE NORTHWEST COAST WILL COME UNDER THE
GUN FOR HIGH SURF AND COASTAL FLOODING AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST DRIVING STILL OPEN WATER TOWARD SHORE SUNDAY NIGHT.

STORM NUMBER THREE MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF EASTERN SIBERIA WILL
AGAIN PROVIDE A LONG FETCH...LONG DURATION SOUTHWEST FLOW AIMED AT
THE SOUTH AND WEST FACING COASTS OF WESTERN ALASKA LATE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AND WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER ROUND OF NORTHWEST WINDS ALONG
THE WESTERN NORTH SLOPE BETWEEN POINT HOPE AND BARROW TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. AT THIS POINT THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT A VERY
COLD AIR MASS WILL SURGE INTO THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST AS
STORM NUMBER THREE EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...SEE DISCUSSION ABOVE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ207-AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ213.

HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ213.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ230-PKZ235.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ225-PKZ230.

STORM WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ235.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

CCC NOV 13