Gale Warning 83, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
522 AM AKST WED NOV 6 2013

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FIRST 96 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE WEST CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE THIS MORNING WILL
MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT AND BE POSITIONED OVER THE ALASKA
CANADIAN BORDER BY FRI EVENING.

DEEP LOW THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE BERING SEA WILL BEGIN
IMPACTING WESTERN ALASKA VERY EARLY THIS MORNING. A LARGE AREA OF
STORM AND GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA AS WELL AS
PORTIONS OF THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE.
PRECIPITATION TYPES WILL BE RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE WATER BUT MAY
BECOME ALL SNOW OVER THE LAND. ALTHOUGH SURFACE LOW MAINTAINS ITS
DEPTH FOR THE MOST PART INTO LATE TONIGHT...THE STRONGEST WINDS
AFTER TONIGHT WILL BE LOCATED OVER SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND AND
OFFSHORE OF POINT HOPE.

VERY COLD AIR WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN ALASKA THROUGH TONIGHT
BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM IN THE BERING SPREADS ITS INFLUENCE OVER
CENTRAL ALASKA.

SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN INTERIOR THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
END FROM THE WEST AND SPREAD EAST TODAY.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...SATURDAY SEEMS TO BE THE
DAY THAT ANOTHER BIG LOW ENTERS THE BERING SEA AND THIS TIME THE
INFLUENCE WILL BE FAR DIFFERENT THAT THE CURRENT ONE THAT IS ABOUT
TO MOVE TO THE WEST COAST. THESE WINDS ARE ADVERTISED TO HAVE A
MUCH LARGER EFFECT ON THE COASTAL AREAS ON THE SEWARD PENINSULA
THIS TIME FOR SAT.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ213.

HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ213.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-
PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ230-PKZ235.

STORM WARNING FOR PKZ210.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

CF NOV 13

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1116 AM AKST WED NOV 6 2013

AKZ207>217-227-072100-
CHUKCHI SEA COAST-LOWER KOBUK AND NOATAK VALLEYS-
BALDWIN PENINSULA AND SELAWIK VALLEY-
NORTHERN AND INTERIOR SEWARD PENINSULA-
SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA COAST-
EASTERN NORTON SOUND AND NULATO HILLS-
ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND BERING STRAIT COAST-YUKON DELTA-
LOWER YUKON VALLEY-LOWER KOYUKUK AND MIDDLE YUKON VALLEYS-
UPPER KOBUK AND NOATAK VALLEYS-UPPER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY-
INCLUDING...POINT HOPE...SHISHMAREF...KIVALINA...ESPENBERG...
NOATAK...KIANA...RED DOG MINE...KOTZEBUE...SELAWIK...NOORVIK...
BUCKLAND...DEERING...CANDLE...COUNCIL...HAYCOCK...
PILGRIM SPRINGS...SERPENTINE HOT SPRINGS...TAYLOR...NOME...
WHITE MOUNTAIN...GOLOVIN...UNALAKLEET...STEBBINS...ST MICHAEL...
ELIM...KOYUK...SHAKTOOLIK...GAMBELL...SAVOONGA...BREVIG MISSION...
TELLER...WALES...DIOMEDE...MOUNTAIN VILLAGE...EMMONAK...
ALAKANUK...KOTLIK...PILOT STATION...ST MARYS...SCAMMON BAY...
MARSHALL...NUNAM IQUA...PITKAS POINT...RUSSIAN MISSION...
GRAYLING...HOLY CROSS...SHAGELUK...ANVIK...FLAT...GALENA...
NULATO...HUSLIA...KALTAG...RUBY...KOYUKUK...AMBLER...SHUNGNAK...
KOBUK...MCGRATH...NIKOLAI...TAKOTNA...FAREWELL LAKE
1116 AM AKST WED NOV 6 2013

...ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND IN WESTERN ALASKA...

THE NORTH PACIFIC JET STREAM WILL CONTINUE TO DIRECT A SERIES OF
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS INTO THE BERING SEA. ANOTHER VIGOROUS
LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA AND INTO THE
CHUKCHI SEA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST DETAILS...STORMY WEATHER ACROSS MUCH
OF WESTERN ALASKA IS LIKELY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE
RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF A WEATHER SYSTEM WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

WITH THE LOW TRACKING OFFSHORE WESTERN ALASKA...THIS WILL RESULT
IN A LONG FETCH AND AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE BERING AND CHUKCHI SEAS. THIS WILL BRING HEAVY SURF AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF COASTAL FLOODING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TO SOME
SOUTH AND WESTERLY FACING COASTS OF THE BERING AND CHUKCHI
SEAS...INCLUDING NORTON SOUND.

IN ADDITION...THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A MIXED BAG OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST COAST AND THE WESTERN INTERIOR. HEAVY
SNOW...FREEZING RAIN...AND RAIN ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION.
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY REMAIN ALL SNOW NORTH OF THE SEWARD
PENINSULA AND IN THE BROOKS RANGE...BUT WARM AIR BEING PUSHED
NORTHWARD MAY CAUSE THE THE PRECIPITATION TO MIX OR CHANGE TO RAIN
TO THE SOUTH.

WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED FOR THIS HAZARDOUS WEEKEND WEATHER AS
CONFIDENCE INCREASES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

EWP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1147 AM AKST WED NOV 6 2013

AKZ221>223-225-072100-
CENTRAL INTERIOR-MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY-DELTANA AND TANANA FLATS-
DENALI-
INCLUDING...NENANA...ANDERSON...TANANA...MINTO...
MANLEY HOT SPRINGS...RAMPART...LAKE MINCHUMINA...LIVENGOOD...
FAIRBANKS...FORT WAINWRIGHT...EIELSON AFB...ESTER...NORTH POLE...
MOOSE CREEK...TWO RIVERS...FOX...CHATANIKA...CHENA HOT SPRINGS...
SOURDOUGH CAMP...SALCHA...DELTA JUNCTION...FORT GREELY...
HARDING/BIRCH LAKE...DRY CREEK...DOT LAKE...HEALY LAKE...HEALY...
DENALI NATIONAL PARK...CARLO CREEK...KANTISHNA
1147 AM AKST WED NOV 6 2013

...ACTIVE WINTER WEATHER LIKELY THIS COMING WEEKEND...

A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE BERING AND
CHUKCHI SEAS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BRING ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE
INTERIOR THIS WEEKEND. A WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST DETAILS...THIS
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OVER
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL INTERIOR. IN ADDITION...WARM AIR BEING
PUSHED NORTHWARD MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN.

WATCHES OR ADVISORIES MAY BE ISSUED FOR THIS HAZARDOUS WEEKEND
WEATHER AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1235 PM AKST WED NOV 6 2013

AKZ201>206-072100-
WESTERN ARCTIC COAST-NORTHERN ARCTIC COAST-
CENTRAL BEAUFORT SEA COAST-EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA COAST-
NORTHWESTERN BROOKS RANGE-NORTHEASTERN BROOKS RANGE-
INCLUDING...WAINWRIGHT...ATQASUK...POINT LAY...CAPE LISBURNE...
BARROW...ALAKTAK...PITT POINT...NULAVIK...NUIQSUT...PRUDHOE BAY...
ALPINE...DEADHORSE...KUPARUK...KAKTOVIK...FLAXMAN ISLAND...
SINGILUK...UMIAT...ANAKTUVUK PASS...ATIGUN PASS...
GALBRAITH LAKE...SAGWON...FRANKLIN BLUFFS
1235 PM AKST WED NOV 6 2013

...ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND IN NORTHERN ALASKA...

A VIGOROUS LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA ON FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA AND INTO
THE CHUKCHI SEA BY SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THEN CONTINUE NORTHEAST
INTO THE BEAUFORT SEA ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST DETAILS...STORMY WEATHER ACROSS MUCH
OF ARCTIC COAST AND NORTH SLOPE OF ALASKA IS LIKELY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.

THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW...BLOWING SNOW...AND POSSIBLY
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ALASKA. IN
ADDITION...AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH OF BARROW LATE SUNDAY...A LONG
FETCH OF STRONG WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
CHUKCHI SEA. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING HEAVY SURF AND THE POSSIBILITY
OF COASTAL EROSION LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO THE NORTHWEST ARCTIC
COAST.

WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED FOR THIS HAZARDOUS WEEKEND WEATHER AS
CONFIDENCE INCREASES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

EWP