Gale Warning 16, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
439 PM AKST WED JAN 23 2013

.DISCUSSION...
A CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN TO A COOLER REGIME IS UNDERWAY
ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
CANADIAN HIGH ARCTIC WILL PUSH SOUTHWEST AND SETTLE IN OVER
MAINLAND ALASKA BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL USHER IN A MUCH COLDER
AIR MASS WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY FALLING TO BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA. IN ADDITION...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ARCTIC
OCEAN WILL DRIFT SOUTHWEST AND WEAKEN. THIS WILL ALLOW THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER MOST OF STATE TO SLACKEN AND RESULT IN DIMINISHING
WINDS IN MOST AREAS.

THE COMBINATION OF COLD AIR ARRIVING FROM THE ARCTIC AND A WEATHER
FRONT MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN INTERIOR BEGINNING
LATE TONIGHT. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND GENERAL
LOCATION OF THE SNOWFALL...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN
AMOUNTS. WE DECIDED TO GO WITH AN AVERAGE OF THE SOLUTIONS AND
KEPT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS SHIFT AND EARLIER
FORECASTS...THIS SEEMED VERY REASONABLE.

NORTH SLOPE...THE RELENTLESS STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ALONG THE
ARCTIC COAST ARE FINALLY GOING TO DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THE WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE WEST IN THE EASTERN
ARCTIC TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY TO THE NORTH IN THE WESTERN ARCTIC
BY FRIDAY. A WEATHER FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM THE ARCTIC WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW TO THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY.

WEST COAST...RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND COOLING
TEMPERATURES.

INTERIOR...SOME LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES ARE LINGERING AROUND THE
SOUTHEAST INTERIOR THIS EVENING WITH SNOW EXPECTED TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT. HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE WEST OF THE
TOK CUTOFF WHERE GOOD UPSLOPE EXISTS. THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO
RECEIVE 10 TO 14 INCHES OF SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. SNOW WILL ALSO SPREAD ABOUT AS FAR WEST AS FAIRBANKS WITH
AN INCH OR SO IN TOWN BUT UP TO 5 INCHES SOUTH AND EAST OF TOWN.
FROM 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY WITH MUCH
LIGHTER AMOUNTS IN THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY COOL WITH SOME CLEARING BEGINNING.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ226.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ222-AKZ223-AKZ224-AKZ225.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ225-PKZ230.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ235-PKZ240.
&&

JAN 13