Brisk Wind Advisory 36, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
536 AM AKST THU JAN 24 2013

.DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...STRONG TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG THE CREST OF THE BROOKS
RANGE WILL MOVE TO EAGLE TO MCGRATH TO UNALAKLEET 3AM SAT. SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MAIN FEATURE...GRADUALLY
DRIVING IT SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW IN THE HIGH CANADIAN
ARCTIC WILL DROP SOUTHWEST TO MACKENZIE BAY 3AM SAT...THEN DRIFT
SOUTHEAST THEREAFTER. RIDGE OVER NORTH PACIFIC WILL BUILD NORTH
OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA SAT AND SAT NIGHT.

SURFACE...1054 MB HIGH NORTHWEST OF BARROW NEAR 80 NORTH LATITUDE
WILL WEAKEN TO WILL 1042 MB THROUGH 3AM SUN 470 MILES NORTHWEST OF
BARROW. LOW SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK ISLAND WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST.
ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT ALONG A LINE FROM KING SALMON TO TALKEETNA
TO DAWSON CANADA WILL BE STATIONARY THROUGH 3PM FRI AND THEN DRIFT
SOUTH AND WEAKEN. COLD AIR MOVING SOUTH OVER INTERIOR ALASKA
THROUGH SAT.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY...AND HAVE BEEN
QUITE CONSISTENT IN THE SNOW COVERAGE OVER SOUTHEAST INTERIOR
DURING THE OUTPUT CYCLES OF THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. GFS 00Z RUN
SNOWFALL FORECAST FOR THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE IS NOW RISEN TO
NEAR WHAT THE NAM HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY FORECASTING THE LAST
SEVERAL CYCLES. IN MEDIUM TERM THE ECMWF BUILDS THE RIDGE OVER
SOUTHWEST ALASKA FAR NORTHWARD WHILE THE GFS BUILDS THE RIDGE A
LITTLE BUT MOVES IT EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA. HPC SOLUTION IS
FAVORING THE GFS.

NORTH SLOPE...WINDS WILL TURN WEST OVER EASTERN ZONE TODAY AND AS
THE UPPER LOW NEARS THE EASTERN EDGE TONIGHT AND FRI CLOUDS WILL
MOVE IN AND AREAS OF SNOW WILL OCCUR...WHICH WILL LINGER ON INTO
SAT. AMOUNT SHOULD BE LIGHT AND EVENTUALLY JUST BE FLURRIES. OVER
THE WEST THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION.

WESTERN ALASKA...WINDS DIMINISHING THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH WINDS
HAVE ABATED AT POINT HOPE AND EXPECT THE SAME FOR GOLOVIN LATER
THIS MORNING. SOME SNOW MAINLY SE HALF OF ZONE 227 TODAY WITH 2
TO 4 INCHES ACCUMULATION DUE TO THE OLD WEATHER FRONT INTERACTING
WITH THE COOLING AIR MASS. OTHERWISE THE WEATHER SHOULD BE DRY AND
BY THIS EVENING SKIES SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLEAR. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL SOME THROUGH FRI.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...COLD AIR PUSHING SOUTH OVER THE AREA
THE NEXT 36 HOURS WILL INTERACT WITH THE WEATHER FRONT NEAR THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALASKA RANGE TO PRODUCE SNOWFALL MAINLY FROM
FAIRBANKS SOUTHEAST. CURRENT ADVISORIES FOR THE SOUTHEAST MIDDLE
TANANA VALLEY...THE FORTYMILE AREA OF ZONE 224...DELTANA AND
DENALI ZONES...AND THE WARNING FOR THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE ALL
LOOK ON TRACK. NORTH WINDS THROUGH ALASKA RANGE PASSES WILL ADD
LOW VISIBILITIES INTO THE SCENARIO. ELSEWHERE THE WINDS IN
VARIOUS LOCATIONS AND SUMMITS WILL DECREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
THE ARCTIC HIGH SLOWLY WEAKENS. ON FRIDAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
SLIDE A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WHICH PUSH THE AREA OF SNOW INTO THE
EASTERN ALASKA RANGE BETWEEN THE TOK CUTOFF AND THE BORDER,,,AS
WELL AS THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME ENDING
OVER AREAS TO THE NORTHWEST. SNOW AMOUNTS IN THIS FAR SOUTHEAST
CORNER WILL BE MUCH LESS...LIKE TWO TO FOUR INCHES. AS SKIES
CLEAR FRIDAY PM AND SAT A COLD WEEKEND WILL BE IN STORE FOR MUCH
OF THE INTERIOR AS 850 MB TEMPS DROP TO 25 TO 30 BELOW.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ204.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ222-AKZ223-AKZ224-AKZ225.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ226.

HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ211.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ225.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ230-PKZ245.
&&

JL JAN 13