Gale Warning 11, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
522 PM AKST FRI JAN 18 2013

.DISCUSSION...
TROUGH ALOFT OVR BROOKS RANGE AND NORTHERN INTERIOR WEAKENING AND
BEING SPLIT NEXT 36 HOURS AS RIDGE REBUILDS FROM THE ERN PACIFIC.
THIS BRINGS MUCH WARMER AIR INTO MOST OF THE CWA BY SUN.

BIG 1054MB HIGH NORTH OF WRANGEL ISLAND PERSISTING THRU THE
WEEKEND. DEVELOPING 984MB 250 NM SOUTHEAST OF COLD BAY BE A 972MB
CENTER SW OF THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS BY 3AM SUN. THE ASSOCIATED
OCCLUSION WILL MOVE ACROSS SW MAINLAND SAT NIGHT AND INTO THE NRN
BERING SEA SUN. A SEPARATE LOW SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA SAT NIGHT AND MOVE RAPIDLY NWD. THE DETAILS REMAIN TO BE
WORKED OUT BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DRIVE THE ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE OVER THE INTERIOR LATE SUN OR
EARLY MON.

MID-RANGE MODELS IN BROAD AGREEMENT ON RIDGE FROM BC TO NW ALASKA
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND MOST GUIDANCE AS THE RIDGE BEING PINCHED
FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...THE STRENGTH OF THE ENTRY
MOVING INTO NE ALASKA VARIES WIDELY...AND THIS CREATES BROADLY
DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS BEYOND MID-WEEK.

NORTH SLOPE...WIND CHILL AND WINTER WX ADVISORIES EXPIRING THIS
EVENING AS AMS IS ALREADY MODERATING. ANOTHER ROUND OF BLOWING
SNOW IS POSSIBLE ZONES 201 AND 206 AS EARLY AS SUN AND THENCE
FARTHER NORTH AND EAST MON. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

WEST COAST...BLIZ WATCH ISSUED FOR ZONE 213 STARTING SAT EVENING.
FARTHER EAST THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF WIND BUT MAY BE TOO WARM FOR
BLIZ IN ZONE 214 AND TOO MUCH DOWNSLOPE FOR ZONE 212. NOME AREA
MAY WIND UP NEEDING A WWA SUN. ON THE PLUS SIDE...TEMPS MUCH
MILDER THAN PRESENTLY.

INTERIOR...STRONG INVERSIONS IN CLAM VALLEYS UNDER THE CLEAR SKIES
BUT EVEN IN THESE AREAS BIG TEMP RISES AS CLOUDS MOVE IN SAT/SAT
NIGHT. A LOT OF PRES GRAD WILL KEEP WINDS GOING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND IN PLACES SUSCEPTIBLE TO WINDS...AND LIKELY TO CREATE
AREAS OF BS AT LEAST ABOVE TREELINE SAT NIGHT/SUN. BUT
AGAIN...TEMPS MUCH MILDER SO WIND CHILLS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN
ISSUE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WATCH FOR AKZ213.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ203-AKZ206-AKZ218-AKZ220.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ204.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ225-PKZ245.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.
&&

RT JAN 13