Brisk Wind Advisory 28, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
203 PM AKST SAT JAN 19 2013

.DISCUSSION...

THE 978 MB LOW SOUTH OF COLD BAY WILL MOVE NORTHWEST...PASSING
SOUTH OF SAINT PAUL. THE WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW
IS PRESENTLY OVER BRISTOL BAY. IT WILL MOVE NORTH AND WEST TO
LIE FROM SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND EASTWARD OVER NORTON SOUND THEN
SOUTHEAST TO NEAR KODIAK ISLAND AT 9AM SUN...AND FROM KOTZEBUE
TO FAIRBANKS AND SOUTHEAST AT 9PM SUN.

THE 974 MB LOW SOUTH OF ADAK WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
EAST INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN CHUKCHI SEA.
THE RIDGE THAT LIES SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THIS HIGH TO NEAR KAKTOVIK
WILL ROTATE NORTHWARD TO LIE ENTIRELY OFF THE ARCTIC COAST BY
MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT.

RECENT ECMF SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN COLDER ON THE WHOLE FOR NORTHERN
ALASKA THAN THE GFS OR (CANADIAN) GEM MODELS...WITH CIRCULATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ALOFT OVER THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO
PUSHING SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE. CONSECUTIVE ECMF MODEL RUNS
HAVE TENDED LET THE TIMING SLIP FARTHER OUT THOUGH. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE GFS DOES HAVE THE COLDER AIR MAKING IT INTO THE
INTERIOR AS WELL...JUST NOT UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK. OUR MID-RANGE
SOLUTION IS SLOWER TOO...WITH INTERIOR TEMPERATURES REMAINING
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ203-AKZ205

WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222-AKZ223.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ213.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ212-AKZ214-AKZ215.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ225.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ230.
&&

DJH JAN 13