Winter Storm Warning 1, NWS Anchorage, AK

017 
WWAK41 PAFC 131402
WSWAER

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
502 AM AKST SUN JAN 13 2013

AKZ101-111-131515-
/X.CAN.PAFC.ZR.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-130113T1500Z/
ANCHORAGE-MATANUSKA VALLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANCHORAGE...EAGLE RIVER...INDIAN...
EKLUTNA...PALMER...WASILLA...SUTTON...CHICKALOON
502 AM AKST SUN JAN 13 2013

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS CANCELLED THE
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY. 

AIR TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ENOUGH TO MITIGATE THE SURFACE
ICING THREAT...HOWEVER RAIN FALLING ONTO SURFACES STILL COVERED IN
SNOW AND ICE WILL CONTINUE TO FREEZE AND STAY VERY SLIPPERY. BE ON
THE LOOKOUT FOR THESE SURFACES AND EXERCISE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

$$

AKZ141-131515-
/X.CAN.PAFC.ZR.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-130113T1800Z/
COPPER RIVER BASIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GLENNALLEN...EUREKA...MCCARTHY...
PAXSON...SLANA
502 AM AKST SUN JAN 13 2013

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS CANCELLED THE
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY. 

WHILE ISOLATED POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE
TODAY...TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL REMAIN MARGINAL TO SUPPORT
MELTING/REFREEZING OF FALLING PRECIPITATION.

$$

AKZ145-140315-
/X.EXT.PAFC.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-130114T1900Z/
SUSITNA VALLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TALKEETNA...WILLOW...CANTWELL
502 AM AKST SUN JAN 13 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN NOW IN
EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM AKST MONDAY...

* LOCATION...MAINLY FROM TALKEETNA NORTH AND WEST.

* SNOW...STORM TOTAL 8 TO 17 INCHES...HIGHEST AMOUNTS NORTH OF
  TALKEETNA. AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHERN
  SUSITNA VALLEY WITH ICE ACCUMULATION UP TO ONE QUARTER INCH.

* TIMING...SNOW NORTH AND WEST OF TALKEETNA AND FREEZING RAIN FROM
  TALKEETNA SOUTH WILL TAPER OFF EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT ARE
  EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
  CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BE DIFFICULT. VISIBILITIES MAY BE LIMITED
  IN HEAVY SNOWFALL. DRIVING MAY BECOME DANGEROUS AS RAIN FALLS ON
  FROZEN SURFACES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

&&

$$

721 
WWAK41 PAFC 140053
WSWAER

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
353 PM AKST SUN JAN 13 2013


AKZ145-140200-
/X.CAN.PAFC.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-130114T1900Z/
SUSITNA VALLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TALKEETNA...WILLOW...CANTWELL
353 PM AKST SUN JAN 13 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS CANCELED THE WINTER
STORM WARNING.

RAIN AND WET SNOW WILL BECOME ALL RAIN EVERYWHERE BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINOR THROUGH
THIS EVENING BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER TO RAIN.


$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKST SAT JAN 12 2013

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE DECENT WITH TIMING AND TRACK OF FEATURES THROUGH ABOUT 36
HOURS BEFORE SHOWING SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES. GFS SEEMS TO HAVE
INITIALIZED THE BEST WITH THE TEMPERATURES THAT ARE CLOSEST TO
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. ECMWF HAS DONE DECENTLY AS WELL ALTHOUGH THERE
ARE SOME LOCATIONS THAT ARE SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER OR WARMER THAN
WHAT THE MODEL SHOWS. THE NAM HAS BEEN RULED AN OUTLIER IN
TRACK/POSITION BUT ALSO WITH ITS TYPICAL COLD BIAS WITH TEMPERATURES.
THE GFS WILL BE USED FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS AND THEN ECMWF IS
PREFERRED DURING THE TIME WITH MORE INCONSISTENCY.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE MAIN FEATURES ON THE AREA WEATHER MAP TODAY INCLUDE A LARGE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC THAT IS VERY SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD...AND A LARGE LOW SLIDING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE BACK SIDE
OF THE RIDGE. THIS LOW IS BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ALASKA THIS
WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION IS GENERALLY STARTING AS SNOW BUT CHANGING TO
RAIN AS WARM AIR SURGES IN. THERE HAVE BEEN PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN
DURING THE TRANSITION TIME...AND THAT WILL CONTINUE AS THE LOW
CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD PAST THE BERING STRAIT
TONIGHT. A WEAKER LOW WILL MOVE NORTH ON THE FRONT INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND ON MONDAY. WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE
NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND AS A LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE FROM
ABOUT 30 DEGREES N LATITUDE GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS. THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH THE
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A GREAT AFFECT ON SNOW PACK ACROSS THE
AREA...AND WITH FROZEN GROUND AS WELL THE WATER WILL HAVE A HARD TIME
FINDING SOMEWHERE TO GO. THEREFORE THE FLOOD WATCHES IN EFFECT STILL
LOOK VERY REASONABLE AND WE WILL CONTINUE THEM.

CURRENT ADVISORIES ALSO APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. WARM AIR IS
ALREADY MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE AT THE
MID-LEVELS...BUT MANY SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW FREEZING.
IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH FREEZING RAIN AT ALL TO CAUSE TRAVEL
PROBLEMS...AND EVEN ONCE AIR TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE
FREEZING...SURFACES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING AND CAUSE THE RAIN TO
FREEZE ON THOSE SURFACES. SO ALL ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN AS-IS AT THIS
POINT AS WELL.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...FLOOD WATCH 101 111 121 125 131 135 145.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 120 130 132 138 150 155 160 165 170 171 172 180
         185 351 352 412 413 414.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
518 PM AKST SAT JAN 12 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST W GLEN ALPS             61.10N 149.69W
01/12/2013  M74 MPH                             AK   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

0443 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 ENE POTTER MARSH      61.06N 149.76W
01/12/2013  M74 MPH                             AK   MESONET

&&

DSTRICKL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
540 PM AKST SAT JAN 12 2013

AKZ101-121-125-140900-

...BACKCOUNTRY AVALANCHE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
MIDNIGHT AKST SUNDAY NIGHT...

THE CHUGACH NATIONAL FOREST AVALANCHE INFORMATION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
BACKCOUNTRY AVALANCHE WARNING FOR THE KENAI AND WESTERN CHUGACH
MOUNTAINS IN AND AROUND THE EASTERN TURNAGAIN ARM AREA.

LARGE NATURAL AVALANCHES ARE LIKELY DURING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
AND/OR SNOWFALL AND HIGH WIND. DANGEROUS HUMAN TRIGGERED AVALANCHES
ARE VERY LIKELY IN THE BACKCOUNTRY. TRAVEL IN AVALANCHE TERRAIN IS
NOT RECOMMENDED.

THIS AVALANCHE WARNING IS IN EFFECT SUNDAY, 1-13-2013, STARTING AT
MIDNIGHT AKST AND WILL BE ACTIVE FOR 24 HOURS.

THIS WARNING DOES NOT INCLUDE SKI AREAS, HIGHWAYS, OR RAILROADS WHERE
AVALANCHE REDUCTION WORK IS EXECUTED.

FOR FULL AVALANCHE ADVISORY VISIT WWW.CNFAIC.ORG OR CALL
907-754-3369.