Brisk Wind Advisory 4, NWS Anchorage, AK

001 
FZAK52 PAFC 140000
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 13 2013

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-141500-
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 13 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 988 MB LOW 300 NM SOUTH OF SAND POINT WILL RAPIDLY TRACK NORTH AND
MOVE ASHORE ACROSS SW ALASKA NEAR TOGIAK AT 986 MB EARLY MON MORNING.
A 990MB LOW 200 NM SOUTH OF ADAK WILL WEAKEN TO 1000 MB MON AFTERNOON
AND DISSIPATE LATE MON NIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN POSITION. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA TONIGHT THROUGH
TUE MORNING. A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WED
AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ150-141500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 13 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE LATE EVENING. 
SEAS 21 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 20 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

PKZ155-141500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 13 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE LATE EVENING. 
SEAS 16 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 18 FT SUBSIDING TO 14 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 

$$

PKZ160-141500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 13 2013

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ165-141500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 13 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT
SUBSIDING TO 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED AND THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-141500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 13 2013

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. N OF NUNIVAK ISLAND...SW WIND 20 KT
BECOMING NW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-141500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 13 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...BERING SIDE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PACIFIC SIDE...W
WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW. 
.MON...PACIFIC SIDE...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT. BERING SIDE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT BERING SIDE...11 FT PACIFIC
SIDE.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-141500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 13 2013

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ172-141500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 13 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT EXCEPT 20 KT E OF SEGUAM ISLAND. 
SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT EXCEPT SE 10 KT E OF SEGUAM ISLAND. 
SEAS 11 FT PACIFIC SIDE...7 FT BERING SIDE. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT EXCEPT SE 10 KT E OF SEGUAM ISLAND. 
SEAS 10 FT PACIFIC SIDE...6 FT BERING SIDE. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 30 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-141500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 13 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT PACIFIC SIDE...10 FT BERING
SIDE. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT PACIFIC SIDE...9 FT BERING SIDE. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 55 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 34 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-141500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 13 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 55 KT. SEAS 32 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 55 KT. SEAS 36 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-141500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 13 2013

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 17 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 18 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-141500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 13 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKST SAT JAN 12 2013

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE DECENT WITH TIMING AND TRACK OF FEATURES THROUGH ABOUT 36
HOURS BEFORE SHOWING SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES. GFS SEEMS TO HAVE
INITIALIZED THE BEST WITH THE TEMPERATURES THAT ARE CLOSEST TO
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. ECMWF HAS DONE DECENTLY AS WELL ALTHOUGH THERE
ARE SOME LOCATIONS THAT ARE SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER OR WARMER THAN
WHAT THE MODEL SHOWS. THE NAM HAS BEEN RULED AN OUTLIER IN
TRACK/POSITION BUT ALSO WITH ITS TYPICAL COLD BIAS WITH TEMPERATURES.
THE GFS WILL BE USED FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS AND THEN ECMWF IS
PREFERRED DURING THE TIME WITH MORE INCONSISTENCY.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE MAIN FEATURES ON THE AREA WEATHER MAP TODAY INCLUDE A LARGE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC THAT IS VERY SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD...AND A LARGE LOW SLIDING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE BACK SIDE
OF THE RIDGE. THIS LOW IS BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ALASKA THIS
WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION IS GENERALLY STARTING AS SNOW BUT CHANGING TO
RAIN AS WARM AIR SURGES IN. THERE HAVE BEEN PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN
DURING THE TRANSITION TIME...AND THAT WILL CONTINUE AS THE LOW
CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD PAST THE BERING STRAIT
TONIGHT. A WEAKER LOW WILL MOVE NORTH ON THE FRONT INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND ON MONDAY. WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE
NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND AS A LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE FROM
ABOUT 30 DEGREES N LATITUDE GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS. THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH THE
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A GREAT AFFECT ON SNOW PACK ACROSS THE
AREA...AND WITH FROZEN GROUND AS WELL THE WATER WILL HAVE A HARD TIME
FINDING SOMEWHERE TO GO. THEREFORE THE FLOOD WATCHES IN EFFECT STILL
LOOK VERY REASONABLE AND WE WILL CONTINUE THEM.

CURRENT ADVISORIES ALSO APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. WARM AIR IS
ALREADY MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE AT THE
MID-LEVELS...BUT MANY SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW FREEZING.
IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH FREEZING RAIN AT ALL TO CAUSE TRAVEL
PROBLEMS...AND EVEN ONCE AIR TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE
FREEZING...SURFACES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING AND CAUSE THE RAIN TO
FREEZE ON THOSE SURFACES. SO ALL ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN AS-IS AT THIS
POINT AS WELL.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...FLOOD WATCH 101 111 121 125 131 135 145.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 120 130 132 138 150 155 160 165 170 171 172 180
         185 351 352 412 413 414.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.