Storm Warning 94, NWS Anchorage, AK

184 
FZAK61 PAFC 271148
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 27 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-280300-
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 27 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...A 972 MB LOW NEAR KODIAK
CITY WILL MOVE TO 54N 142W TONIGHT AT 970 MB THEN SOUTHEAST INTO THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC. 

$$

PKZ351-280300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 27 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 TO
17 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 TO
16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-280300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 27 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT THU SEP 26 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE IS A POWERFUL LOW OVER THE EASTERN
BERING SEA MOVING JUST SOUTH OF DUE EAST. THE UPPER LOW IS CENTERED
JUST WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND WITH THE SURFACE LOW AHEAD OF IT
CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF NUNIVAK ISLAND. THE WARM FRONT STRETCHES FROM
ABOUT CHIGNIK SOUTHWARD. THE COLD FRONT IS ROUGHLY ALONG THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND ALEUTIAN CHAIN...WITH THE OCCLUDED FRONT ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST COAST OF MAINLAND ALASKA. THERE IS ALSO A WEAKENING LOW
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA THAT IS MOVING SLOWLY EAST.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN HOW THEY HANDLE SMALL-SCALE DETAILS IN THE LOW THAT
MOVES FROM THE BERING INTO THE GULF (MAINLY DUE TO A SLIGHT SPLIT IN
LOW LEVEL FLOW)...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CAUSE FORECAST PROBLEMS. THERE
IS A GREATER DIFFERENCE IN HOW THEY HANDLE A LOW MOVING INTO THE
ALEUTIANS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE GFS IS A NICE "MIDDLE GROUND"
ON THIS LOW AND MATCHES THE INHERITED FORECAST WELL...SO IT WAS THE
PREFERRED SOLUTION.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE WEAKENING LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SOME SHOWERS TONIGHT WILL HAVE DISSIPATED BY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE BERING LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA
TONIGHT AND THEN CROSS KODIAK ISLAND AN PUSH INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA
FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE QUITE STRONG...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THIS LOW ALSO
HAS A NICE MOISTURE TAP INTO A FORMER TROPICAL SYSTEM NEAR JAPAN SO
PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL SHOULD BE PRETTY DECENT...THOUGH THE FAST SPEED OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL LIMIT TOTAL STORM ACCUMULATIONS. INLAND PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL WILL NOT SEE VERY MUCH RAIN AS THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS STAYS OVER/NEAR THE GULF.

BY SATURDAY THE LOW WILL HAVE MOVED WELL SOUTHEAST OF SOUTHERN
ALASKA. SOME RESIDUAL UPPER LEVEL "TROGHINESS" WILL KEEP SOME
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

FOR THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS THROUGH FRIDAY AS
THE MAIN LOW PUSHES INTO THE GULF AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE FILLS
BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS LATE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. THIS IS THE FORMER
TROPICAL SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE. THIS SYSTEM WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
WEAKER THAN THE CURRENT ONE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 181.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 150 155 160 165 180.
         GALE WARNING 120 125 130 132 138 140 170 171 172 176 179.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG SEP 13