Gale Warning 545, NWS Anchorage, AK

885 
FZAK62 PAFC 271158
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 27 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-280300-
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 27 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 973 MB LOW AT 58N 158W WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF TONIGHT. A 997 MB
LOW AT 48N 165E FRI AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TO 49N 176W SAT NIGHT AT 1012
MB.

$$

PKZ411-280300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 27 2013

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N OF 56N...NW WIND 20 KT. S OF 56N...E WIND 15 KT
INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...N OF 56N...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. S OF 56N...E WIND 25 KT
INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-280300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 27 2013

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-280300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 27 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E OF 176W...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 TO 16 FT. W OF 176W...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO
15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-280300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 27 2013

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E OF 167W...NW WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 TO 20 FT. W OF 167W...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 17
FT. 
.TONIGHT...E OF 167W...NW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 FT TO 17 FT. W OF 167W...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING
TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT EXCEPT 20 KT W OF 167W. SEAS 11 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT
W OF 167W. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

111 
FZAK62 PAFC 272350
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 27 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-281500-
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 27 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 969 MB LOW NEAR 57N 149W WILL EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC 
FRI NIGHT AND SAT. A 995 MB LOW NEAR 48N 164E WILL DISSIPATE 
AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN FRI NIGHT AND SAT.

$$

PKZ411-281500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 27 2013

.TONIGHT...N TO E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-281500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 27 2013

.TONIGHT...W TO N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-281500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 27 2013

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...N TO E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-281500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 27 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT THU SEP 26 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE IS A POWERFUL LOW OVER THE EASTERN
BERING SEA MOVING JUST SOUTH OF DUE EAST. THE UPPER LOW IS CENTERED
JUST WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND WITH THE SURFACE LOW AHEAD OF IT
CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF NUNIVAK ISLAND. THE WARM FRONT STRETCHES FROM
ABOUT CHIGNIK SOUTHWARD. THE COLD FRONT IS ROUGHLY ALONG THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND ALEUTIAN CHAIN...WITH THE OCCLUDED FRONT ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST COAST OF MAINLAND ALASKA. THERE IS ALSO A WEAKENING LOW
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA THAT IS MOVING SLOWLY EAST.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN HOW THEY HANDLE SMALL-SCALE DETAILS IN THE LOW THAT
MOVES FROM THE BERING INTO THE GULF (MAINLY DUE TO A SLIGHT SPLIT IN
LOW LEVEL FLOW)...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CAUSE FORECAST PROBLEMS. THERE
IS A GREATER DIFFERENCE IN HOW THEY HANDLE A LOW MOVING INTO THE
ALEUTIANS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE GFS IS A NICE "MIDDLE GROUND"
ON THIS LOW AND MATCHES THE INHERITED FORECAST WELL...SO IT WAS THE
PREFERRED SOLUTION.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE WEAKENING LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SOME SHOWERS TONIGHT WILL HAVE DISSIPATED BY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE BERING LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA
TONIGHT AND THEN CROSS KODIAK ISLAND AN PUSH INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA
FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE QUITE STRONG...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THIS LOW ALSO
HAS A NICE MOISTURE TAP INTO A FORMER TROPICAL SYSTEM NEAR JAPAN SO
PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL SHOULD BE PRETTY DECENT...THOUGH THE FAST SPEED OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL LIMIT TOTAL STORM ACCUMULATIONS. INLAND PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL WILL NOT SEE VERY MUCH RAIN AS THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS STAYS OVER/NEAR THE GULF.

BY SATURDAY THE LOW WILL HAVE MOVED WELL SOUTHEAST OF SOUTHERN
ALASKA. SOME RESIDUAL UPPER LEVEL "TROGHINESS" WILL KEEP SOME
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

FOR THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS THROUGH FRIDAY AS
THE MAIN LOW PUSHES INTO THE GULF AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE FILLS
BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS LATE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. THIS IS THE FORMER
TROPICAL SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE. THIS SYSTEM WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
WEAKER THAN THE CURRENT ONE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 181.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 150 155 160 165 180.
         GALE WARNING 120 125 130 132 138 140 170 171 172 176 179.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG SEP 13